Severe Threat Potential Looms on Friday

Good afternoon, the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center is in and instead of doing the afternoon update, I’m going to combine it all in one large blog post, this may be a bit on the long side, so bear with me.  We are going to break down some of the larger cities that’s under each of the categorical risk.  The entire state is under the gun for severe storms on Friday, so everyone need to be weather aware tomorrow.  The following cities/locales are under the enhanced risk…Evansville, Jasper, Bedford, Madison.  The following cites are under the slight risk, Indianapolis, Anderson, Muncie, Bloomington, Terre Haute, Richmond.  Finally, these cities are under a marginal risk, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Kokomo, Lafayette, Gary.  Now overall for the state, an enhanced risk of severe storms is possible for southwest and south-central Indiana, with a marginal risk for central Indiana, and a marginal risk for northern Indiana.  Slide15

***Potentially a significant severe weather event is possible, especially in the enhanced risk area***  Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning and we won’t how the morning storms will play in the afternoon/evening severe weather, but right now, conditions are in place for a rather active afternoon/evening.  A new round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon hours and move southeast.  Initial storms may be supercellular in nature and could produce very large hail (up to and possibly slightly over 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes, before storms congeal into line and bowing segments, when damaging winds will become the primary threat, but large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The severe threat may wind down by the early to mid evening hours, but chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the overnight hours.  Following graphics is what the FutureCast radar predicts from 1 am to 8  pm Friday.  Errors in timing between 1 and 2 hours either way…

We are going to end this blog with potential hazards, beginning with the enhanced risk area.  All modes are in play, including the risk of isolated tornadoes, but damaging winds, and large hail, some possibly over 2 inches in diameter will be possible.  Within the slight risk area, I also think that all modes of severe weather are possible, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes may also be possible.  Finally for the marginal risk area, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, but can not totally rule out a tornado or two.

To end this blog, I will say what I normally would say, there’s a lot of uncertainties in regards to the overall severe weather potential, we have seen where conditions dynamically looked favorable, little or no severe weather occurred.  This could very well happen again tomorrow.  The keys is again how the morning convection, how fast it can move out of the area, and whether we see strong surface heating, if the sun can remain in check and we are dominated with cloud cover, then the severe threat will be limited, however, areas that end up seeing prolonged sunshine and strong surface heating, then those will be the areas that will most likely see the severe weather.  The best you can do is remain weather aware, follow the safety tips below, have a plan of action in the event of warnings, and we will get through tomorrow together, whether severe weather occurs or not.  As far as coverage, we will likely begin coverage as the morning storms move into the state, likely during the overnight hours around 1 or 2 am and we will continue until the severe potential is over.  Tomorrow will be declared a “Weather Alert Day”.  Updates will be available on our Facebook page.  Slide51

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Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

Good morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed east-central and southeast Indiana under a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon.  So what I wanted to do is produce a quick blog on what we could see today and overall, the risk is not that great.  While we will have plenty of instability, shear is really lacking and will only be 20 kts or less and you need at least 30 kts or more of shear for ideal severe storm development.  A cold front will provide the focus for storm development this afternoon and motion with the storms will generally be southeast today.  The graphic below shows the areas under the marginal risk (there will be an update from the Storm Prediction Center around 9 am)Slide15

So taking a look at what FutureCast shows, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop sometime after noon, and this could very depending on when the cap erodes.  We expect a broken line of storms to move southeast through the afternoon hours, it will not be widespread showers and thunderstorms, in fact some areas may not see any rainfall today, but areas that do see storms, especially in the east-central and southeast counties, could see heavy rainfall, and again that potential for isolated severe storms.  We expect by 4 pm the line to be along a Lafayette-Kokomo-Marion line, moving along a Crawfordsville-Anderson-Muncie line by 6 pm, and a Terre Haute-Indy-Richmond line by 7 pm.  After 8 pm, as daytime heating is decreasing, the storms should begin to weaken and by 10 pm, most of the storms should have dissipated, with only isolated storms possible for southern counties.  This timeframe is not etched in stone and there could be variations of this timeline, so error plus or minus an hour.

 

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Finally, the Severe Threat Index, we are not expecting widespread severe weather, most of the area under the marginal risk will likely not see any severe storms, but for those who are under the marginal risk, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, we will have updates on the Facebook page throughout the day.  If any storms do become severe, damaging winds will be the primary threat, some of the most intense storms could produce hail, but that potential is very low.  Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm, but widespread flooding is also not likely, could see some ponding on roadways and minor flash flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.  Overall, again, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, this will not be a widespread threat, most of the day should remain dry, and in fact, some areas may not even see any rainfall today.  Stay weather aware and have a great Tuesday!Slide16

Alberto to Bring Heavy Rain, Severe Weather to Indiana

Good afternoon, before getting to the impacts that the remnants of Alberto will bring, let’s take a look at where Alberto is currently.  As of this typing, Alberto is located about 25 miles northwest of Birmingham or about 417 miles south-southwest of Indianapolis.  Alberto is moving to the north at 12 mph and maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph.  Alberto is currently producing heavy rainfall across northwest and central Alabama.Slide4

Alberto will continue to move north to north-northwest through the rest of today into tonight and will move through the Tennessee Valley through the day and move into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday as Alberto will begin to turn to the northeast.  Some of the most outer rainbands will move through southern Indiana this afternoon and evening and the core of Alberto’s remnants will move across the state during the day on Wednesday.  The area that have the potential of seeing the heaviest rainfall will be on the north side of the storm.  The core of Alberto will be affecting the southwest counties Wednesday morning and spread into the Indy area by lunchtime and northern counties by the early evening hours.  Futurecast radar will show the evolution and movement of Alberto and will run from 2 pm this afternoon through midnight Thursday.

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In addition to the heavy rainfall potential on Wednesday, there is the potential for severe weather as well.  There is a marginal risk of severe storm for the northeast half of Indiana, where isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the primary threat.  As the core of Alberto moves across the state, areas that will be in the northeast quadrant will be under the highest potential of seeing severe storms.Slide12Slide15

Finally, how much rain will fall, here is a couple of models that show what will fall, the first model is an in-house model that I think is under doing the total rainfall as this model is showing less than an inch of rainfall through midnight Thursday.  Again, I think that this model is under doing the amount of rainfall that could fall.Slide5

Next is the NAM 3km model rainfall potential through 2 am Thursday.  This models is a bit closer to my thinking with widespread areas in excess of an inch across the state, with pockets of 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals.  NAM 3km

Finally a look at the GFS, rainfall totals again looking a bit lower than my thinking of rainfall will eventually end up being.  GFS for much of the state is showing an inch or less through 2 am Thursday. GFS rainfall

So my thoughts for rainfall.  I think that western Indiana will see the highest rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals of 3 to 3 1/2 inches possible.  Eastern Indiana will likely see closer to 1/2 to an inch of rainfall, with isolated totals of up to 2 inches.  Flash flooding will be possible as this final graphic shows, that there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for southern Indiana this evening and tonight.  A slight risk for excessive rainfall for the entire state on Wednesday, flash flooding will be possible and flash flood watches are already posted for far southern Indiana counties and we will see if watches will be expanded north.  Stay weather aware on Wednesday.  wpc day 1wpc day 1

 

Severe Weather Potential for This Afternoon

Good morning, we are monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon for much of the state, with a focus for much of central Indiana.  We will get to that in a moment, but first, a current look at the radar.  We are seeing showers, some moderate to heavy falling across northwest Indiana.  Some lighter showers getting ready to move into west-central Indiana, and some new showers trying to pop up and develop between Bloomington and Washington.  Temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in northwest Indiana to the lower 70s across southern Indiana.Slide2

Now to the actual Convective Outlook.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Indiana under a slight risk of severe storms mainly for the afternoon hours.  A marginal risk is in place for much of northern and all of southern Indiana.  Some of the cities under the slight risk include Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo, Indianapolis, Noblesville, Westfield, Fishers, Richmond, Greenwood, Lebanon, Zionsville, Pendleton, Marion, Hartford City, Portland, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Greensburg to name a few.  Slide9

Now to breakdown the timing and what the radar could look like from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing mainly across northwest and moving into north-central Indiana, with some lighter showers possible in western Indiana.  As we head into the early afternoon, by 2 pm, is where we could see some strong to potentially severe storms possible across northeast Indiana, perhaps moving into the Kokomo area.  By 4 pm, storms could be moving into east-central and northeast Indiana, so areas like Fort Wayne could be seeing some stronger storms during that time.  Heading into the early evening hours, by 7 pm, we could see some strong to severe storms moving into the Anderson area and closing in on the Muncie area.  By the later evening hours, showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage and intensity as daytime heating is loss.  A look at Futurecast radar is below.

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Finally the threats, for areas in the marginal risk, for those in the marginal risk area, expect damaging winds to be the primary threat.  Some storms could produce large hail, but with lapse rates looking meager, that threat is extremely low.  For areas under the slight risk, damaging winds again will be the primary threat, but there is the potential for isolated supercell storms, and with enough low-level shear, we can not rule out a tornado or two.  We expect the timing for the highest severe weather potential between 2 pm and 9 pm, but can occur anytime between noon and 10 pm.  For updates on radar and more you can like the Equinox Weather Facebook page, or follow us on Twitter.  Be weather aware today!Slide12

Isolated Severe Storm Potential Saturday

Good afternoon, taking a look at current conditions across the Ohio Valley, clouds are beginning to increase across the area from Indiana eastward to Ohio, lots of clear skies in West Virginia.  Temperatures are generally in the 40s and 50s across the Ohio Valley.

Taking a look at FutureCast from 4 pm this afternoon through 7 am Saturday morning will showers and embedded thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage and in some cases intensity.  Showers will begin to move into Indiana in the early evening hours and thunderstorms may enter into the picture between 7 and 9 pm.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward and move into western Kentucky and Ohio by the late evening hours into the very early morning hours of Saturday morning.  Showers at times may be heavy and some of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.  Heavy rainfall will move into the Cleveland area by 2 am and around the same time, some lighter rain will begin to move into western West Virginia.  Showers and storms will begin to become more scattered about for Indiana.  By 5 am, heavier rain will move into the Charleston area and by the end of the period will move into eastern West Virginia, while more scattered showers and embedded storms will continue for much of Indiana, central Kentucky, and western Ohio.

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Heading into Saturday, there is a marginal risk of severe storms for much of central and southern Indiana, much of Kentucky, and southwest Ohio as a cold front approaches the area.  While there will be lack of instability with this cold front, dewpoints will increase in the upper 50s and a strong low level flow will be sufficient enough for thunderstorm development, in which a few storms could produce damaging winds.  This will not be a widespread potential by any means, and most areas will not see severe weather, but anyone within the marginal risk area could see isolated damaging winds.

We will continue to monitor the situation even we are not anticipating a widespread event.  For further updates, please like the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Severe Weather Potential for Sunday

Good afternoon, before we go into details with the severe weather potential for Sunday, we will take a brief look at the current conditions as of this write up.  Warm front as of 11 am is now in southwest Indiana and this front will continue to push northward.  Showers on radar across northern Indiana, with heavy rainfall from near South Bend to Walkerton.  Temperatures are ranging from a cool 43 in South Bend and Elkhart, to a mild 64 in Evansville, Washington, and Jasper.

Looking ahead to Sunday, a strong cold front will continue to march east and southeastward across the Central Plains and will be in a position from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa to northwest Missouri by Sunday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing as FutureCast will show below.  As of the 1:30 pm Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, an enhanced risk of severe weather is for all of central Indiana and a small portion of northern and southern Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe weather for extreme northern extreme southern Indiana, with a slight risk in between these area.  It is of a quick note that the threats have been pushed southward a bit, and the southward push could continue depending largely on which areas will be in the warm sector.

Now what is causing the severe weather potential is a strong cold front that will sweep through the area on Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.  Bulk shear by Sunday evening will range from 35 kts in southwest Indiana to an incredible 80 kts in northwest Indiana, that is plenty of shear to maintain thunderstorms.  Winds at 5,000 feet will range from 20 kts in northwest Indiana to around 45 kts in southern Indiana.  Lapse rates in excess of 7.5 also suggest the potential for very large hail.  However, the exact location of the warm front, and extensive cloud cover and the possibility of a cap being in place can also limit the overall severe weather potential.  Supercell thunderstorms, some semi-discrete could develop during the afternoon hours, and some of those storms will produce all severe weather modes, including a few tornadoes, especially near the location of the warm front, then the storms will congeal into one or more lines of strong to severe storms, where damaging winds, and a brief spin up tornado or two will be possible.  The main threat for those in the enhanced risk area will be large hail and damaging winds, but again a few tornadoes will be possible and the hail may exceed 2″ in diameter.  For the slight risk area, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but can not rule out an isolated tornado.  In the marginal area, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but there is also a non-zero risk of an isolated tornado.

Finally looking at FutureCast radar from 4 am Sunday through 4 am Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the vicinity of the warm front, some small hail and brief heavy rain may be possible with these storms.  Some of these storms may also play a role in the overall severe weather potential as well.  Stronger rounds of thunderstorms will begin during the early to mid afternoon hours, first starting in Illinois, then moving into Indiana.  It will be some of these storms that will have the potential to become severe.  As we head into the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms, some still could be severe will continue to move ahead of the cold front and with the loss of any daytime heating, these storms will eventually begin to wane slowly after sunset, moving into southern Indiana after midnight.

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Even if the severe weather do not play out as we are expecting it to and that is still entirely possible, heavy rainfall will still be possible with any thunderstorm, and to prove that point, here’s two model solutions of possible rainfall through 7 am Monday.  The GFS is a bit conservative, but still suggesting 1 to 2″ across much of the state.  The NAM 3km model I think might be a little too aggressive at least in the rainfall totals, but as FutureCast showed, most of the heaviest rain will focus on central Indiana, where the model suggests anywhere from 1.5 to 5.25″ of rainfall.  Even the conventional NAM is suggesting over 4″ in east-central Indiana.  Localized flooding will be possible in any of these scenarios.

So to conclude, we are still looking at the potential for severe weather on Sunday, there still remain a few uncertainties that will be answered over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Right now, the area that could see the greatest impacts will be central Illinois and central Indiana, as things have trended a bit more southward.  Heavy rainfall will be possible, even if severe weather do not occur and localized flooding will be possible.  Finally, even though I haven’t mentioned it above, even outside of thunderstorms, winds could gust up to 30 mph ahead of the front that could knock down some branches.  Stay weather aware for Sunday and be sure to keep tuned to the latest information on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

5 pm update on Irma

Good evening, if you’ve been following on the Facebook page today, you would think it was quite the busy day so far and it has been.  We’ve been going since 4:45 am and stopped only to quickly eat lunch.  Anyways, here is a list of watches and warnings associated with Irma…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

At 5pm, the eye of Irma was located inland, 5 miles north of Naples.  Irma is moving north at 14 mph and this course is expected to continue, with a motion to the north-northwest at times.  On this track, Irma will continue to move along the Florida west coast and may touch the Gulf of Mexico at times during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are down to 110 mph, which now makes Irma a strong category 2.  Continued weakening is forecast, but Irma should remain a hurricane for at least the next 18 to 24 hours.

The follow is the storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 5 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

Rainfall totals especially areas impacted by the northeast quadrant, could see as much as 10 to 20 inches of rain, which will lead to dangerous flash flooding.

Now to the forecast track, now that Irma is inland, the storm will continue to move northward across the Florida peninsula and will continue to weaken.  By Monday afternoon, Irma will be a tropical storm near the Georgia/Florida line, then will move northwest to the east-central Alabama by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.  Then finally becoming a post-tropical system as it moves towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  We will continue to monitor Irma even as it moves through the southeast due to its potential impacts on Indiana’s weather.  Have a great evening!  Slide57

Severe Potential Remains in Place for Labor Day

Good evening, a beautiful day has shaped in across the state.  Temperatures at the 5 pm hour range from the mid 70s northeast to the mid 80s southwest.  Conditions for tonight will be dry and even as we head into the first half of Labor Day will be dry, but there is the potential for severe storms as there is a slight risk of severe storms for northern and central Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe storms for areas a bit further south. A strong cold front will approach the area from the northwest and move southeast Monday afternoon and evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop and with deep shear, moderate instability, dewpoints that will return to the upper 60s to lower 70s, severe storms will be possible.  Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat, but as the initial storms develop across northern Indiana, can not rule out a tornado or two, especially if storms can become supercellular in nature.  Timing out the storms in Futurecast, storms will likely develop in northeast Illinois and/or northwest Indiana in the afternoon hours, between the hours of 2 and 4 pm and move southeast.  Storms will likely become severe after 6 pm as storms congeal into a squall line.  The following are possible times of arrival for storms…

Lafayette, Kokomo, Fort Wayne 8-9 pm; Muncie, Anderson, Terre Haute, Indianapolis 9-10 pm; Bloomington 10-11 pm; Evansville (in a weaken state) 11-midnight CDT.

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So for Monday, stay weather aware, I would not cancel your plans, as there will be lots of dry time and for most, storms will not arrive until the evening hours.  We will also likely go under a Severe Weather Alert Day.  Be sure to check out and like the Facebook page and also to follow us on Twitter.  We will have another update Monday morning!

Severe Storm Potential for Labor Day

Good morning, the weather overall for today will be quiet across the state, with lots of sunshine and low humidity.  That all will change for our Labor Day as there is a slight risk of severe storms for northern Indiana and a portion of central Indiana.  Marginal risk of severe weather for central Indiana as the Convective Outlook shows.

Slide7

Labor Day will not be a washout, the morning and a good portion of the afternoon hours will remain quiet as the Futurecast will show below, but as humidity increase and dewpoints will rise back in the upper 60s to near 70 and a strong cold front approaches from the northwest, instability will increase and so will the shower and thunderstorm potential.  Futurecast shows showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop after 3 pm and quickly increase in intensity and coverage and move southeast.  This line of storms will become apparent on radar by the early evening hours in northwest Indiana.  The initial line of storms could have isolated supercells ahead of the storms, and all modes will be possible.  Line will continue to the southeast and will be impacting the following areas:

Lafayette 7-8 pm, Kokomo 8-9 pm, Muncie, Indy, and Terre Haute 9-10 pm, Bloomington 10-11 pm, Evansville between 11-midnight

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The primary threat with the storms Monday afternoon through evening will be damaging winds and large hail, however with the initial development, isolated supercells will be possible, so the threat of a tornado or two will also be possible, especially in northern Indiana where the storms will develop.   Stay weather aware and we will update this later today and on Monday.  Don’t forget to check out the Equinox Weather Facebook page and follow us on Twitter!

A Look Back, the Kokomo Tornado of August 24, 2016

One year ago today, August 24, 2016, central Indiana was impacted by 7 tornadoes.  Of the 7 tornadoes that touched down, 5 of them touched down in Howard County, including an EF-3 tornado that affected the southern portion of Kokomo.  The majority of this write up will be on that tornado that was 300 yards wide(nearly a quarter mile), had estimated winds of 152 mph and caused 20 injuries, but thankfully, no deaths.  We will look at the radar pictures as the tornado developed and moved across southern Kokomo, the warnings that were issued for this storm, the Convective Outlooks that were issued, and the pictures that were sent in to us.

The early Convective Outlook that was posted on August 24, showed much of Indiana under a marginal risk of severe weather to occur during the afternoon hours.  Here’s what I posted at 4:33 am on that day…Good Wednesday morning, much of the state is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Primary threat will be damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms will increase from the late morning into the afternoon hours. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible. We will monitor today and have additional updates as needed.

early convective outlook aug 24, 2016
This was the first post from Equinox Weather on August 24, 2016 at 4:33 am…Good Wednesday morning, much of the state is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Primary threat will be damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms will increase from the late morning into the afternoon hours. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible. We will monitor today and have additional updates as needed.

The morning and the early part of the afternoon hours was quiet, but around 2:30 pm, I would post the first of many radars that was showing signs of rotation and some that would eventually produce tornadoes.  The first radar post was at 2:30 pm for area of rotation that I noticed southwest of Crawfordsville and within 7 minutes, the first warning was issued by the National Weather Service Office in Indianapolis, here’s a look at a portion of that warning and the radar picture…

TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA…

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 237 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

Aug 24 2016 1437
The first of many tornado warnings that were issued on August 24, 2016

This storm would produce an EF-2 tornado that went through mainly open country, but did cause major damage to homes and barns near Linnsburg.  The path of the tornado was over 5 miles and tornado width of 125 yards.  This tornado caused no injuries or deaths.

Aug 24 2016 1442
The circled area is showing where the tornado was tossing debris in the air.

The storm that would produce the EF-3 tornado became warned for the first time at 2:50 pm.  Here’s a look at portions of that warning from the Indy office…

TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 250 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRANKFORT…MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

The initial radar that I posted with this warning was at 2:52 pm.  You can see where the reds and the greens were next to each other, showing where the rotation is located.  The rotation have not quite crossed into Howard County yet.  Then at 2:53 pm, I added the pathcast with the tornado warned storm.  According to this, the possible tornado was predicted to reach Kokomo by 3:27 pm.

The first update on this tornado warning was at 2:59 pm, during this time the possible tornado was 10 miles west of Kokomo and moving east at 30 mph.  I made the next post around 3:02 pm to show where the possible tornado was located with an updated pathcast.  This now showed the tornado to reach Kokomo by 3:22 pm.  Also with the rotation was showing signs of getting stronger.  The tornado would touch down approximately 18 minutes later (more on that in a bit).

Aug 24 2016 1502
This was around the time of the first update of the tornado warning, when it was 10 miles west of Kokomo. The rotation was showing signs of getting stronger and the pathcast had the possible tornado reaching Kokomo by 3:22 pm.

The 3:09 pm update on the tornado warning stated that there was a confirmed tornado near Kokomo and moving east at 30 mph, though the official information from the National Weather Service would show the tornado touching down at 3:20 pm.  While the tornado may have been down at this point, the NWS team that surveyed the damage may have not found a damage path.  The radar from 3:08 pm continued to show the rotation getting stronger.

Aug 24 2016 1508
Rotation on the possible tornado continues to get stronger and within a minute the updated warning suggests that the tornado may have touched down, even though the official reports states tornado did not touch down until 3:20 pm.

By 3:19 pm, behind the scenes, I was seeing that not only the tornado was likely on the ground, but may have been doing damage.  This was the update on the tornado warning issued at 3:17 pm by NWS…

AT 317 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KOKOMO…MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE…WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SPOTTED AT 315 PM BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 100S AND COUNTY ROAD 100W IN THE
CITY OF KOKOMO.

TO REPEAT…A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A MOBILE HOME…OR
IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO…AS A LAST RESORT…EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT…OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Aug 24 2016 1519
The circled area is where radar is suggesting that there could be tornado debris within the tornado as the tornado was approaching the southern sections of Kokomo.

By 3:21 pm, the tornado have moved into the southern sections of Kokomo and the updated wording from the tornado warning was becoming stronger from the NWS, here is much of that updated warning with the strong wording…

AT 320 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER KOKOMO…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE…LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…
BUSINESSES…AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WAS SPOTTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 300W AND
50S JUST WEST OF KOKOMO AT 317 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO REPEAT…A LARGE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE…TAKE COVER NOW!
MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A MOBILE
HOME…OR IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO…AS A LAST RESORT…EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT…OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

The radar picture from 3:22 pm now shows the very strong rotation affecting the southern portion of Kokomo.

Aug 24 2016 1522
Very strong rotation and tornado now affecting the southern portion of Kokomo.

At 3:24 pm, a new tornado warning was issued for Howard County and Kokomo, with even stronger wording from the NWS, and within one minute of that warning, the very little wording “tornado emergency” was issued for the city of Kokomo.  That wording is only used when a destructive tornado that could produce a large loss of live or widespread damage affecting a city.  First here is the warning at 3:24 pm, followed by the tornado emergency wording update at 3:25 pm…

TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 322 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER KOKOMO…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE…LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…
BUSINESSES…AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO REPEAT…A LARGE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE…TAKE COVER NOW!
MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A MOBILE
HOME…OR IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO…

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
HOWARD COUNTY…

AT 324 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
OVER KOKOMO…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE…LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…
BUSINESSES…AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO REPEAT…A LARGE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS…AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE…TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS…MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

While at this point, it really didn’t matter how the radar looked like, we knew that a tornado is on the ground and it is causing major damage in southern Kokomo, but here is how the radar looked like, with a pathcast at 3:27 pm.  This tornado was projected to affect Greentown by 3:39 pm.

Aug 24 2016 1527
The highlighted warning that covered Kokomo was the area that was under the tornado emergency, as very strong rotation and tornado was over the southeast portion of Kokomo and causing major damage.

The updated tornado emergency warning at 3:32 was suggesting that a large and destructive tornado was on the east side of Kokomo.  Here is a portion of that update…

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO CONTINUES…

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
HOWARD COUNTY…

AT 331 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS
LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KOKOMO…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE
TORNADO WAS SPOTTED AT 330 PM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD
300E AND US ROUTE 35 ON THE EAST SIDE OF KOKOMO.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE…LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…
BUSINESSES…AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

Then finally, some good news, the radar that I’m about to post from 3:36 pm, looks like that the rotation have greatly weaken the tornado may have even lifted and according to the official report, the tornado have lifted at 3:34 pm.  So the next two posts, will show that radar post, then the second will show the tornado track as plotted by the NWS.

Aug 24 2016 1536
It was during this time, the hook echo that normally associates with tornadoes was no longer showing and that the tornado may have even lifted, which official reports show that it did by 3:34 pm.
kokomo_path
The path of the Kokomo tornado as plotted by the National Weather Service office in Indianapolis. The blue/teal upside down tornado indicate EF-0 damage, green, EF-1, yellow, EF-2, orange, EF-3

The tornado path suggests that there was two areas of EF-3 damage, the first near S. Armstrong St, and the second near and around Markland Mall.  Below is a series of damage photos that were submitted to us from the great folks of Kokomo and those who have sent them will be named in the captions and I apologize, I was not able to use all of them…

As it was earlier stated, this was not the only tornado of the day, several more touched down, including 5 all together in Howard County.  This link from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis have details on all the tornadoes that affected central Indiana that day.  There were an additional 4 tornadoes in northern Indiana, including another EF-3 near Woodburn.  This link here also provide details of the tornadoes.  The Kokomo tornado damaged nearly 1,000, 170 of them with major damage, and 80 were destroyed, including an apartment complex.  Starbucks near Markland Mall was destroyed.  Total damage was estimated at $10 million dollars and one last tidbit before ending, a receipt from the Kokomo tornado was found in Marion, some 30 miles east of Kokomo, which shows the power that these tornadoes can produce.

Overall strong partnerships from the media, the EMAs, and the National Weather Service offices in Indianapolis and Northern Indiana had kept people safe and very thankful that there were no loss of live.  While many people suffered losses of property, some of which can be replaced, you can never replace a life and that’s why we will continue to work very hard at Equinox Weather to provide watches and warnings during severe weather events.

Notes:  Featured photo from Amy True, video provided from Kristen Enoch, Burlington volunteer firefighter