Tag Archives: Rain

Severe Weather Potential for This Afternoon

Good morning, we are monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon for much of the state, with a focus for much of central Indiana.  We will get to that in a moment, but first, a current look at the radar.  We are seeing showers, some moderate to heavy falling across northwest Indiana.  Some lighter showers getting ready to move into west-central Indiana, and some new showers trying to pop up and develop between Bloomington and Washington.  Temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in northwest Indiana to the lower 70s across southern Indiana.Slide2

Now to the actual Convective Outlook.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Indiana under a slight risk of severe storms mainly for the afternoon hours.  A marginal risk is in place for much of northern and all of southern Indiana.  Some of the cities under the slight risk include Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo, Indianapolis, Noblesville, Westfield, Fishers, Richmond, Greenwood, Lebanon, Zionsville, Pendleton, Marion, Hartford City, Portland, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Greensburg to name a few.  Slide9

Now to breakdown the timing and what the radar could look like from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing mainly across northwest and moving into north-central Indiana, with some lighter showers possible in western Indiana.  As we head into the early afternoon, by 2 pm, is where we could see some strong to potentially severe storms possible across northeast Indiana, perhaps moving into the Kokomo area.  By 4 pm, storms could be moving into east-central and northeast Indiana, so areas like Fort Wayne could be seeing some stronger storms during that time.  Heading into the early evening hours, by 7 pm, we could see some strong to severe storms moving into the Anderson area and closing in on the Muncie area.  By the later evening hours, showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage and intensity as daytime heating is loss.  A look at Futurecast radar is below.

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Finally the threats, for areas in the marginal risk, for those in the marginal risk area, expect damaging winds to be the primary threat.  Some storms could produce large hail, but with lapse rates looking meager, that threat is extremely low.  For areas under the slight risk, damaging winds again will be the primary threat, but there is the potential for isolated supercell storms, and with enough low-level shear, we can not rule out a tornado or two.  We expect the timing for the highest severe weather potential between 2 pm and 9 pm, but can occur anytime between noon and 10 pm.  For updates on radar and more you can like the Equinox Weather Facebook page, or follow us on Twitter.  Be weather aware today!Slide12

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First Day of Winter, Coldest Air of the Season Looming, White Christmas Possibilities

Good Wednesday morning on what could be quite the blog post on the coldest air of the season looming, and the possibility of a White Christmas.  Let’s start with the first day of Winter is tomorrow and begins at 11:28 am EST, 10:28 am CST.  Weather for today, with the exception of rain chances in southern Kentucky and into West Virginia will be quiet and quiet region wide.  Then we will watch two fronts that will filter in the coldest air we have seen so far this season.  The first front will bring rain chances to the region, with the potential of a rain/snow mix for northwest Indiana.  The Arctic front will move through the region on Saturday and behind this front will bring a changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast and could also produce accumulation.

As far as the potential for accumulating snow and the chances of a White Christmas, any snow that accumulates will stick around with the very cold that will move in and that will be posted in the next section, with that in mind, there is still a lot of uncertainties in how much snow could fall, so I have highlighted the areas where a light snow accumulation is possible between Saturday and Sunday night.  This is highly likely to change so be sure to stay tuned for future forecasts and updates.Slide10

Finally, a look at the temperatures for the next week, most of the region will see the highest temperatures on Friday or Saturday and they will bottom out for the second half of the weekend into next week.  Temperatures for portions of Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday will likely not make it out of the teens with lows in the single digits and even subzero depending on the amount of snow cover.  Wind chills could be well below zero, so we are talking about some very cold air that will be moving in and we will have safety tips on the cold in future posts on the Facebook page.  Below is the temperature for select cities in the Ohio Valley.

We will continue to monitor weather data in the coming days as far as snow potential and the incoming Arctic air mass.  Don’t forget to like the Equinox Weather Facebook page for additional information and updates.  Also check out the Equinox Weather Store to donate,  if you need weather research, to sponsor, or start a weather subscription.