Tag Archives: Preparations

Evening update on Nate

Good evening, Nate is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast, here’s a look at the updated watches/warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

At 5 pm, Nate have winds at 90 mph, gusts up to 115 mph.  Nate remains a category 1 hurricane and as I said in the beginning, it is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast.  Shear may also having impacts on Nate.  While there is still a chance for Nate to reach category 2 strength it is likely to remain a strong category 1 at landfall.  Nate is currently only 50 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 140 miles south of Biloxi, MS.  On the forecast track, Nate will move near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River in the next couple of hours and will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Mississippi Gulf coast later this evening or late tonight.

The latest look at the radar, you can see the eye of Nate to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the north-northwest.  Rainbands continuing to rotate onshore and each rainband will produce higher and higher winds.  Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts within the next hour or two, with hurricane force winds moving over the mouth of the Mississippi River within the next two hours, the Louisiana Gulf coast within the next 3 to 4 hours, and the Mississippi Gulf coast within the same time frame.

Impacts for the New Orleans metro area and the rest of the northeast Louisiana Gulf coast, as New Orleans and the Louisiana Gulf coast will likely be on the west side of Nate, winds will likely be on the order of 45 to 65 mph, with gusts to near or over hurricane force.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be the following…Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft, Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Isolated tornadoes may be possible.

Impacts for the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coast, winds will likely be on the order of 75 to 90 mph, with gusts 100 to 110 mph, especially near and just to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches possible.  Storm surge flooding is the following…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  There was a least one reported tornado in Gulf Shores.

There will be other impacts as Nate continues to move inland.  It will quickly weaken and will likely dissipate within four days or sooner.  Rainfall amounts form the southeast, to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, to the southern Appalachians could reach 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.  Rainfall totals for portions of the mid-Atlantic to New England could reach 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible.  This will be the last blog post on Hurricane Nate, additional updates will be on the Facebook page.

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11 am update on Hurricane Nate

Nate continues to strengthen but first here’s the latest on the watches and warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be near completion!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Nate currently have winds of 90 mph, which is a category 1 hurricane.  Nate continues to move rapidly to the north-northwest near 26 mph and this motion is expected to continue, with a turn to the north later today.  Nate is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Mississippi or Alabama gulf coast this evening or late tonight.  Nate could graze the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Nate is currently 180 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 265 miles south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate is expected to continue to strengthen and will do so right up to landfall.  Nate will likely be a category 2 hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph, and there is an outside chance that Nate could reach major hurricane status.

Official forecast track for Nate through 24 hours.

A look at the radar from New Orleans shows a pretty strong rain band still offshore but will move onshore within the next hour or two and this rainband could produce wind gusts of over tropical storm force.  The eye is not quite visible yet on radar, but should be within the next couple of hours.

Now to the impacts with Nate for the New Orleans metro area and the northeast Louisiana coast.  First winds, associated with Nate, sustained winds in the New Orleans metro area will be on the order of 45 to 60 mph, with gusts to hurricane force, while areas near and the to east of Slidell and areas near the mouth of the Mississippi and Bayou country will likely see winds 55 to 70 mph, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas of up to 10 inches will be possible and due to the fast motion of Nate, flooding from rainfall will be minimum.  Storm surge flooding for the Louisiana coast will be at the following levels…Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to
6 ft.  An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

Finally, the impacts for the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, winds and gusts of hurricane force will be expected, especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall, which right now could be anywhere from Biloxi to as far east as Mobile.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be as follows…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft and Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially along and east of where Nate makes landfall.

Impacts for Nate will spread beyond where it makes landfall.  As Nate moves further inland, it will interact with a frontal system and spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Appalachians, and New England.  Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 2 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be possible.  Wind gusts of up to tropical storm force will be possible for portions of the southeast, the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.  Preparations should be very near completion for the central Gulf coast and you should be at a safe location to ride out this hurricane.  Additional updates here and on the Facebook page.

Late Afternoon Update on Irma

Good evening, we have the latest information on Hurricane Irma.  At 5 pm, the eye of Irma was located near 22.1 N 76.5 W or 345 miles southeast of Miami.  Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph.  This makes Irma an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.  Fluctuations in strength is possible and Irma will continue to move closer to Florida and likely make landfall as a category 4 hurricane.We will get to the official forecast track in just a minute, right now here’s the list of watches and warnings that are in effect…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

As far as the forecast track is concern, the official forecast track takes Irma very close to the northern Cuban coast, which could actually be some good news as hopefully some of the circulation of Irma will be disrupted and will cause some weakening.  Otherwise, forecast track brings Irma through the Florida Keys between Key West and Marathon and a landfall between Marco and Everglades City, again as a category 4 hurricane.  Irma will then continue to move northward and becoming a tropical storm near the Florida/Georgia line, then will move to the northwest towards the Ohio Valley weakening to a post-tropical system.

Latest satellite picture still show a very organized hurricane, with the eyewall replacement cycle complete, winds have responded and increased back to 155 mph.  There is the potential that Irma could regain category 5 status, unless the circulation is disrupted by northern Cuba.  This of course remains to be seen and we hope that it will be the case.  Before we get to impacts from Irma and a dramatic look at what the radar COULD look like, the following is a list of locations in Florida that are under evacuation orders…

  • South Bay
  • Lake Harbor
  • Pahokee
  • Moore Haven
  • Clewiston
  • Belle Glade
  • Canal Point
  • Brevard – mandatory evacuations for Zone A, Merritt Island, barrier islands, and some low-lying mainland areas along Indian River Lagoon beginning Friday
  • Broward – voluntary evacuations mobile homes and low-lying areas; mandatory East of Federal Highway including barrier islands beginning Thursday
  • Collier – mandatory evacuations for Goodland, Everglades City, Chokoloskee, all mobile homes beginning on Friday
  • Flagler – mandatory evacuations for nursing homes, all varieties of assisted living facilities, and community residential group homes within coastal and Intracoastal areas and voluntary for zones A, B, C, F beginning on Thursday; mandatory for Zones A,B,C,F, and substandard housing beginning on Saturday
  • Hendry – voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, non-slab-built homes, mobile home and RVs beginning on Thursday
  • Lee – mandatory evacuations for barrier islands – Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva, and Pine Island beginning on Friday AM
  • Manatee – voluntary evacuations for Zone A
  • Martin – voluntary evacuations for mandatory for barrier islands, manufactured homes, and low-lying areas beginning Saturday
  • Miami-Dade – mandatory evacuations for all of Zone A, all of Zone B, and portions of Zone C. Miami Dade residents can find their zones by clicking HERE.
  • Monroe – mandatory evacuations for visitors and residents. A dedicated transportation hotline is available specifically for individuals in the Keys at 305-517-2480
  • Palm Beach – mandatory evacuations for Zone A and B, voluntary for Zone C and Lake Zone E
  • Pinellas – mandatory evacuations all mobile home and Zone A
  • St. Lucie – voluntary evacuations
  • Glades – mandatory evacuations around Lake Okeechobee
  • Hardee – voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, mobile homes, and port structures
  • Indian River – voluntary evacuations for barrier islands, low-lying areas
  • Lee – mandatory evacuations for barrier islands – Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva, and Pine Island beginning on Friday AM
  • Tampa is telling everyone in Evacuation Zone A to get out. A mandatory evacuation of the city’s lowest-lying homes will go into effect at 2 p.m.

If you are under evacuation orders, do not mess around with this storm, LEAVE and if you can, leave the state.  Head to Alabama or Mississippi as the entire state of Florida will be impacted by Irma.  You are quickly running out of time to get preparations completed.  In my opinion, they should be completed by noon Saturday and if you are going to leave, do so TONIGHT!  If you’re going to evacuate, be sure you have a full tank of gas, plenty of cash as ATMs may not work if the power fails.  If you are riding the storm out in your home, be sure to have plenty of non-perishable food items for up to a week, along with drinking water, generally 2 to 3 gallons per person for about a week.  Have plenty of batteries for flash lights.  Have a battery-powered radio so you can continue to get the latest updates.  Stay indoors and away from windows!  Again and I can not emphasize this enough, time is running on and preps should be completed by noon tomorrow.

Impacts from Irma include hurricane force winds, that could gust well over 150 mph in the eyewall!  Storm surge flooding from 5 to as much as 10 feet will be possible near and where Irma makes landfall.  Very heavy rainfall, with totals between 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches will be possible near and where Irma makes landfall.  Tornadoes will also be possible!To end this update, we will take a look at what the radar could look like starting at 5 pm on Saturday to 5 pm Sunday.  DO NOT USE THIS FUTURECAST TO MAKE DECISIONS ON WHETHER TO LEAVE OR NOT!! THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL!

Conditions in Florida will deteriorate throughout the day on Saturday as Irma moves closer.  The widespread heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds should begin by Saturday evening, with hurricane force winds likely after midnight.  If this verifies, the worst of Irma should arrive for the Key West area between 1 and 3 am, with the eye over the Keys by 4 am.  For the southern tip of Florida, the worst should be between 3 and 7 am, with the eye moving inland by 8 am.  Irma will then continue northward and by the time this run ends at 5 pm Sunday, the eye could be near Punta Gorda.

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This is a very dangerous and deadly situation!  If you are in Florida, please pay attention to all EMA officials and local law enforcement.  Can not stress enough that you are running out of time to get your preparations done!  We will have another blog tomorrow morning between 6 and 8 am.  Have a great evening!

 

A Look at Tropical Storm Harvey Aug 24 noon update

Good afternoon, with our weather quiet right now, we want to turn to the tropics and a storm that could impact the Texas coast in the next day or two.  Tropical Storm Harvey is currently sitting in the Gulf of Mexico and is rapidly strengthening.  Here is a look at the watches and warnings associated with Harvey…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

At the 11 am advisory, Harvey was located 365 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and max winds of 65 mph.  Rapid strengthening is forecast and not only Harvey will become a hurricane soon, it could become a major category 3 hurricane by the time it approaches the coast.  A look at the satellite picture will show why rapid strengthening is forecast.  Harvey right now is looking like a classic tropical system with good outflow in all quadrants and is sitting in a low shear environment and water temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.  As Harvey gets closer to the coast, seas will increase rapidly and conditions will deteriorate rapidly, so I urge anyone who lives along the Texas coast or if you have family that lives along the Texas coast to make preparations for this dangerous storm NOW as it is forecast to make landfall either late Friday night or early Saturday morning.  The following is information about the storm surge and surge levels from the National Hurricane Center…

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 10 ft
Sargent to San Luis Pass…5 to 7 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

As Harvey makes landfall, it is expected to stall as the steering currents will weaken.  Rainfall amounts in excess of 15 inches, with amounts up to 30 inches will be possible along the Texas coast.  Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible.  The following graphics will help you in making hurricane preparations…

To end this blog, the National Hurricane Center have the following key points on Tropical Storm Harvey and this can not be stressed enough, NOW is the time if you live on the Texas coast to prepare for this storm.

1. Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.  Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the
hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 10 feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the
flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.