Tag Archives: Hurricane

Latest on Hurricane Lane and impacts on Hawaii

Good morning, before we get to the latest information on Hurricane Lane that continues its approach to the Hawaiian Islands, here is the latest on Hurricane Watches and Warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

Oahu

Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe

Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

Kauai County…including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

At 11 pm, Hawaiian Time, the eye of Hurricane Lane is located about 350 miles south of Honolulu.  Lane is moving slowly to the northwest near 7 mph and this slow motion is expected to continue with a turn to the north-northwest, then a turn to the north is expected by Friday before turning back west by Saturday.  On the forecast track, Lane will come dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands today into Friday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph.  Lane is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.  Some slow weakening is forecast, but Lane will remain a hurricane for the next few days.  Slide11

As you can see above the official forecast on the track of Lane, it is expected to gradually turn to the north-northwest later today and to the north by Friday as Lane gets dangerously close to the Hawaii, the timing of the turn to the west is very critical as it could move over the island of Oahu if the turn to the west can do not occur before getting to the island.  Once the turn to the west do occur by Saturday, it would parallel the Hawaiian island chain.  A look at the radar, you can see the eye well defined south of the Hawaiian islands, with outer rainbands affecting the Big Island, where there have been reports of a foot of rain have already fell.  Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for Hawaii County.Slide7

Impacts on the Hawaiian Islands…

Rainfall/Flooding…Rain will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands today through Friday, with very heavy rainfall occurring at times.  Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts of 30 to 40 inches will be possible.  Life threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible as Lane will be slow moving and hours upon hours of heavy rainfall is expected.

Winds…Tropical storm force winds will also continue to spread across the Big Island today, with hurricane force winds for the Big Islands to occur as early as tonight or early Friday morning.  Tropical storm force winds could reach Maui County as early as this afternoon, with hurricane force winds possible by late tonight or early Friday morning.  For Oahu, tropical storm force winds could begin late tonight into Friday morning, with hurricane force winds possible by Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Storm Surge/Surf…With the slow movement of Lane, large and destructive winds will pound the Hawaiian Islands for several days, which in turn could actually increase coastal flooding concerns, especially for south and west facing beaches.  Storm Surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet on top of battering waves will be possible.

Tornadoes/Waterspouts…A few tornadoes and/or waterspouts will be possible, especially on the northeast quadrant of Lane.

Those who have family or interests in Hawaii, time is quickly running out for the Big Island, all preparations should be near completion this morning, and preps on the other islands should be complete by the end of today!  Slide12

The final portion of this blog is on other preparedness information from the National Weather Service…

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

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Evening update on Nate

Good evening, Nate is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast, here’s a look at the updated watches/warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

At 5 pm, Nate have winds at 90 mph, gusts up to 115 mph.  Nate remains a category 1 hurricane and as I said in the beginning, it is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast.  Shear may also having impacts on Nate.  While there is still a chance for Nate to reach category 2 strength it is likely to remain a strong category 1 at landfall.  Nate is currently only 50 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 140 miles south of Biloxi, MS.  On the forecast track, Nate will move near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River in the next couple of hours and will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Mississippi Gulf coast later this evening or late tonight.

The latest look at the radar, you can see the eye of Nate to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the north-northwest.  Rainbands continuing to rotate onshore and each rainband will produce higher and higher winds.  Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts within the next hour or two, with hurricane force winds moving over the mouth of the Mississippi River within the next two hours, the Louisiana Gulf coast within the next 3 to 4 hours, and the Mississippi Gulf coast within the same time frame.

Impacts for the New Orleans metro area and the rest of the northeast Louisiana Gulf coast, as New Orleans and the Louisiana Gulf coast will likely be on the west side of Nate, winds will likely be on the order of 45 to 65 mph, with gusts to near or over hurricane force.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be the following…Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft, Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Isolated tornadoes may be possible.

Impacts for the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coast, winds will likely be on the order of 75 to 90 mph, with gusts 100 to 110 mph, especially near and just to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches possible.  Storm surge flooding is the following…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  There was a least one reported tornado in Gulf Shores.

There will be other impacts as Nate continues to move inland.  It will quickly weaken and will likely dissipate within four days or sooner.  Rainfall amounts form the southeast, to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, to the southern Appalachians could reach 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.  Rainfall totals for portions of the mid-Atlantic to New England could reach 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible.  This will be the last blog post on Hurricane Nate, additional updates will be on the Facebook page.

11 am update on Hurricane Nate

Nate continues to strengthen but first here’s the latest on the watches and warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be near completion!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Nate currently have winds of 90 mph, which is a category 1 hurricane.  Nate continues to move rapidly to the north-northwest near 26 mph and this motion is expected to continue, with a turn to the north later today.  Nate is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Mississippi or Alabama gulf coast this evening or late tonight.  Nate could graze the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Nate is currently 180 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 265 miles south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate is expected to continue to strengthen and will do so right up to landfall.  Nate will likely be a category 2 hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph, and there is an outside chance that Nate could reach major hurricane status.

Official forecast track for Nate through 24 hours.

A look at the radar from New Orleans shows a pretty strong rain band still offshore but will move onshore within the next hour or two and this rainband could produce wind gusts of over tropical storm force.  The eye is not quite visible yet on radar, but should be within the next couple of hours.

Now to the impacts with Nate for the New Orleans metro area and the northeast Louisiana coast.  First winds, associated with Nate, sustained winds in the New Orleans metro area will be on the order of 45 to 60 mph, with gusts to hurricane force, while areas near and the to east of Slidell and areas near the mouth of the Mississippi and Bayou country will likely see winds 55 to 70 mph, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas of up to 10 inches will be possible and due to the fast motion of Nate, flooding from rainfall will be minimum.  Storm surge flooding for the Louisiana coast will be at the following levels…Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to
6 ft.  An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

Finally, the impacts for the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, winds and gusts of hurricane force will be expected, especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall, which right now could be anywhere from Biloxi to as far east as Mobile.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be as follows…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft and Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially along and east of where Nate makes landfall.

Impacts for Nate will spread beyond where it makes landfall.  As Nate moves further inland, it will interact with a frontal system and spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Appalachians, and New England.  Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 2 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be possible.  Wind gusts of up to tropical storm force will be possible for portions of the southeast, the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.  Preparations should be very near completion for the central Gulf coast and you should be at a safe location to ride out this hurricane.  Additional updates here and on the Facebook page.

Evening Update on Nate

Good evening, Nate continues to strengthen as it moves closer to the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually the southern Gulf of Mexico.  First here’s the latest on the watches and warnings in effect…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

At 5 pm, Nate now have winds of 60 mph and rapidly moving to the north-northwest near 21 mph and on the forecast track, Nate will move near or over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late tonight or early Saturday morning.  Nate will make landfall along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  Nate is approximately 645 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The latest forecast track for Nate

Nate is continuing to gradually strengthen and still have the potential to reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  With Nate’s rapidly movement rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches will be possible, so while flooding from rainfall may be limited, storm surge flooding however is likely as storm surge potential are as follows for the northern Gulf coast…

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to 6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border…5 to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida…4 to 6 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft

Winds will also gradually be on the increase tonight into Saturday with tropical storm force winds moving on the coast by Saturday afternoon and hurricane force winds will occur within a small area by Saturday night and continue into early Sunday morning.

As Nate moves further inland, heavy rainfall will be possible for portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and New England.  Rainfall amounts in these areas will be in the 3 to 5 inch range, with isolated amounts up to 6 or 7 inches.  Winds of up to tropical storm force will be possible as far north as the Tennessee Valley.

Impacts possible from Nate across the northern Gulf coast

Preparations across the northern Gulf coast should be completed by tonight, early Saturday morning at the latest as conditions will worsen throughout the day on Saturday.  Power outages will also be possible so be sure to have extra cash on hand as ATMs will not work if the power is out.  We will continue to have updates on Nate throughout the day on Saturday on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Tropical Storm Nate Friday Morning Update

Good morning, even though the intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Nate will be out by the time I hit publish, will quickly put together this post on the 5 am update on Nate, but first, here is a list of watches and warnings currently in effect…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

At 5 am, Nate had winds of 45 mph, with gusts to 60 mph and moving quickly to the north-northwest at 14 mph.  Nate is approximately 950 miles south-southeast of New Orleans.

Position and official forecast track for Nate.

Nate is not a big tropical storm with tropical storm force winds extending 90 miles from the center.  The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center have Nate skimming the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 12 to 24 hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to gradually strengthen to a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, though some models do suggest that Nate may not reach hurricane strength and even it does reach hurricane strength, we are not expecting Nate to be stronger than an 85 mph hurricane.  The main impacts from Nate due to the likely fast movement of the storm will be storm surge flooding and the potential for power outage and damage.  Those along the northern Gulf coast, now is the time to prepare for a category 1 hurricane and preparations should be complete by the end of today.  Listen to local officials for any evacuation orders.  Stock up on batteries, have plenty of water and non-perishable food items, gas in the car, and cash on hand as ATMs will not work if the power is out.   Also want to point this out, this storm will no way be anything like Harvey, Irma, or Maria thankfully, but Nate will still provide problems of its own.  Once Nate moves across the northern Gulf coast, it will quickly weaken and move northeast across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and will be very near New York City by very early Tuesday morning, spreading heavy rainfall along its path.  Forecast guidance are tightly clustered on the track of Nate.  We will have another update on Nate this afternoon, but those along the northern Gulf coast need to prepare now for this storm.

Impacts along the northern Gulf coast for Nate

Track model guidance for Nate

5 pm update on Irma

Good evening, if you’ve been following on the Facebook page today, you would think it was quite the busy day so far and it has been.  We’ve been going since 4:45 am and stopped only to quickly eat lunch.  Anyways, here is a list of watches and warnings associated with Irma…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

At 5pm, the eye of Irma was located inland, 5 miles north of Naples.  Irma is moving north at 14 mph and this course is expected to continue, with a motion to the north-northwest at times.  On this track, Irma will continue to move along the Florida west coast and may touch the Gulf of Mexico at times during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are down to 110 mph, which now makes Irma a strong category 2.  Continued weakening is forecast, but Irma should remain a hurricane for at least the next 18 to 24 hours.

The follow is the storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 5 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

Rainfall totals especially areas impacted by the northeast quadrant, could see as much as 10 to 20 inches of rain, which will lead to dangerous flash flooding.

Now to the forecast track, now that Irma is inland, the storm will continue to move northward across the Florida peninsula and will continue to weaken.  By Monday afternoon, Irma will be a tropical storm near the Georgia/Florida line, then will move northwest to the east-central Alabama by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.  Then finally becoming a post-tropical system as it moves towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  We will continue to monitor Irma even as it moves through the southeast due to its potential impacts on Indiana’s weather.  Have a great evening!  Slide57

5 am update on Irma

The official 5 am update, first here’s a look at the watches/warnings…
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Matanzas, and La Habana
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bimini and Grand Bahama
 
At 5 am, Irma is located 40 miles SSE of Key West. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph, which is a category 4 hurricane. We are not expecting anymore strengthening due to increasing shear and soon land interaction. A gradual weakening is expected, but will still be a major hurricane for the next 24 hours. Irma is moving northwest at 8 mph. The core of Irma will move across the Keys during the next few hours. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE IF YOU ARE STILL IN THE KEYS!! The following is expected storm surge…
Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft
Rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches, especially where Irma makes landfall, general rainfall totals of 5 to 15 inches will be possible, with isolated areas of 25 inches possible.  Flash flooding will be possible.
Tornadoes will also be possible today, with an enhanced risk of severe storms for portions of the eastern Florida peninsula.
Now for the forecast track, once the core of Irma moves through the Keys, Irma is expected to move parallel to the west coast of Florida, this will make the exact landfall area difficult to pinpoint.  Once Irma do make landfall, it will continue to move north and northwest into east-central Alabama by early Tuesday morning as a tropical storm, then continue to weaken to a post-tropical system into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  If you are in Florida today, remain indoors today, for the west coast of Florida, conditions will only worsen today!  Be safe and we will have another blog update between 11:30 and noon.

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