Tag Archives: FutureCast

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

Good morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed east-central and southeast Indiana under a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon.  So what I wanted to do is produce a quick blog on what we could see today and overall, the risk is not that great.  While we will have plenty of instability, shear is really lacking and will only be 20 kts or less and you need at least 30 kts or more of shear for ideal severe storm development.  A cold front will provide the focus for storm development this afternoon and motion with the storms will generally be southeast today.  The graphic below shows the areas under the marginal risk (there will be an update from the Storm Prediction Center around 9 am)Slide15

So taking a look at what FutureCast shows, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop sometime after noon, and this could very depending on when the cap erodes.  We expect a broken line of storms to move southeast through the afternoon hours, it will not be widespread showers and thunderstorms, in fact some areas may not see any rainfall today, but areas that do see storms, especially in the east-central and southeast counties, could see heavy rainfall, and again that potential for isolated severe storms.  We expect by 4 pm the line to be along a Lafayette-Kokomo-Marion line, moving along a Crawfordsville-Anderson-Muncie line by 6 pm, and a Terre Haute-Indy-Richmond line by 7 pm.  After 8 pm, as daytime heating is decreasing, the storms should begin to weaken and by 10 pm, most of the storms should have dissipated, with only isolated storms possible for southern counties.  This timeframe is not etched in stone and there could be variations of this timeline, so error plus or minus an hour.


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Finally, the Severe Threat Index, we are not expecting widespread severe weather, most of the area under the marginal risk will likely not see any severe storms, but for those who are under the marginal risk, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, we will have updates on the Facebook page throughout the day.  If any storms do become severe, damaging winds will be the primary threat, some of the most intense storms could produce hail, but that potential is very low.  Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm, but widespread flooding is also not likely, could see some ponding on roadways and minor flash flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.  Overall, again, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, this will not be a widespread threat, most of the day should remain dry, and in fact, some areas may not even see any rainfall today.  Stay weather aware and have a great Tuesday!Slide16


Severe Weather Potential for Sunday

Good afternoon, before we go into details with the severe weather potential for Sunday, we will take a brief look at the current conditions as of this write up.  Warm front as of 11 am is now in southwest Indiana and this front will continue to push northward.  Showers on radar across northern Indiana, with heavy rainfall from near South Bend to Walkerton.  Temperatures are ranging from a cool 43 in South Bend and Elkhart, to a mild 64 in Evansville, Washington, and Jasper.

Looking ahead to Sunday, a strong cold front will continue to march east and southeastward across the Central Plains and will be in a position from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa to northwest Missouri by Sunday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing as FutureCast will show below.  As of the 1:30 pm Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, an enhanced risk of severe weather is for all of central Indiana and a small portion of northern and southern Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe weather for extreme northern extreme southern Indiana, with a slight risk in between these area.  It is of a quick note that the threats have been pushed southward a bit, and the southward push could continue depending largely on which areas will be in the warm sector.

Now what is causing the severe weather potential is a strong cold front that will sweep through the area on Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.  Bulk shear by Sunday evening will range from 35 kts in southwest Indiana to an incredible 80 kts in northwest Indiana, that is plenty of shear to maintain thunderstorms.  Winds at 5,000 feet will range from 20 kts in northwest Indiana to around 45 kts in southern Indiana.  Lapse rates in excess of 7.5 also suggest the potential for very large hail.  However, the exact location of the warm front, and extensive cloud cover and the possibility of a cap being in place can also limit the overall severe weather potential.  Supercell thunderstorms, some semi-discrete could develop during the afternoon hours, and some of those storms will produce all severe weather modes, including a few tornadoes, especially near the location of the warm front, then the storms will congeal into one or more lines of strong to severe storms, where damaging winds, and a brief spin up tornado or two will be possible.  The main threat for those in the enhanced risk area will be large hail and damaging winds, but again a few tornadoes will be possible and the hail may exceed 2″ in diameter.  For the slight risk area, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but can not rule out an isolated tornado.  In the marginal area, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but there is also a non-zero risk of an isolated tornado.

Finally looking at FutureCast radar from 4 am Sunday through 4 am Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the vicinity of the warm front, some small hail and brief heavy rain may be possible with these storms.  Some of these storms may also play a role in the overall severe weather potential as well.  Stronger rounds of thunderstorms will begin during the early to mid afternoon hours, first starting in Illinois, then moving into Indiana.  It will be some of these storms that will have the potential to become severe.  As we head into the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms, some still could be severe will continue to move ahead of the cold front and with the loss of any daytime heating, these storms will eventually begin to wane slowly after sunset, moving into southern Indiana after midnight.

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Even if the severe weather do not play out as we are expecting it to and that is still entirely possible, heavy rainfall will still be possible with any thunderstorm, and to prove that point, here’s two model solutions of possible rainfall through 7 am Monday.  The GFS is a bit conservative, but still suggesting 1 to 2″ across much of the state.  The NAM 3km model I think might be a little too aggressive at least in the rainfall totals, but as FutureCast showed, most of the heaviest rain will focus on central Indiana, where the model suggests anywhere from 1.5 to 5.25″ of rainfall.  Even the conventional NAM is suggesting over 4″ in east-central Indiana.  Localized flooding will be possible in any of these scenarios.

So to conclude, we are still looking at the potential for severe weather on Sunday, there still remain a few uncertainties that will be answered over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Right now, the area that could see the greatest impacts will be central Illinois and central Indiana, as things have trended a bit more southward.  Heavy rainfall will be possible, even if severe weather do not occur and localized flooding will be possible.  Finally, even though I haven’t mentioned it above, even outside of thunderstorms, winds could gust up to 30 mph ahead of the front that could knock down some branches.  Stay weather aware for Sunday and be sure to keep tuned to the latest information on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Late Afternoon Update on Irma

Good evening, we have the latest information on Hurricane Irma.  At 5 pm, the eye of Irma was located near 22.1 N 76.5 W or 345 miles southeast of Miami.  Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph.  This makes Irma an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.  Fluctuations in strength is possible and Irma will continue to move closer to Florida and likely make landfall as a category 4 hurricane.We will get to the official forecast track in just a minute, right now here’s the list of watches and warnings that are in effect…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

As far as the forecast track is concern, the official forecast track takes Irma very close to the northern Cuban coast, which could actually be some good news as hopefully some of the circulation of Irma will be disrupted and will cause some weakening.  Otherwise, forecast track brings Irma through the Florida Keys between Key West and Marathon and a landfall between Marco and Everglades City, again as a category 4 hurricane.  Irma will then continue to move northward and becoming a tropical storm near the Florida/Georgia line, then will move to the northwest towards the Ohio Valley weakening to a post-tropical system.

Latest satellite picture still show a very organized hurricane, with the eyewall replacement cycle complete, winds have responded and increased back to 155 mph.  There is the potential that Irma could regain category 5 status, unless the circulation is disrupted by northern Cuba.  This of course remains to be seen and we hope that it will be the case.  Before we get to impacts from Irma and a dramatic look at what the radar COULD look like, the following is a list of locations in Florida that are under evacuation orders…

  • South Bay
  • Lake Harbor
  • Pahokee
  • Moore Haven
  • Clewiston
  • Belle Glade
  • Canal Point
  • Brevard – mandatory evacuations for Zone A, Merritt Island, barrier islands, and some low-lying mainland areas along Indian River Lagoon beginning Friday
  • Broward – voluntary evacuations mobile homes and low-lying areas; mandatory East of Federal Highway including barrier islands beginning Thursday
  • Collier – mandatory evacuations for Goodland, Everglades City, Chokoloskee, all mobile homes beginning on Friday
  • Flagler – mandatory evacuations for nursing homes, all varieties of assisted living facilities, and community residential group homes within coastal and Intracoastal areas and voluntary for zones A, B, C, F beginning on Thursday; mandatory for Zones A,B,C,F, and substandard housing beginning on Saturday
  • Hendry – voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, non-slab-built homes, mobile home and RVs beginning on Thursday
  • Lee – mandatory evacuations for barrier islands – Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva, and Pine Island beginning on Friday AM
  • Manatee – voluntary evacuations for Zone A
  • Martin – voluntary evacuations for mandatory for barrier islands, manufactured homes, and low-lying areas beginning Saturday
  • Miami-Dade – mandatory evacuations for all of Zone A, all of Zone B, and portions of Zone C. Miami Dade residents can find their zones by clicking HERE.
  • Monroe – mandatory evacuations for visitors and residents. A dedicated transportation hotline is available specifically for individuals in the Keys at 305-517-2480
  • Palm Beach – mandatory evacuations for Zone A and B, voluntary for Zone C and Lake Zone E
  • Pinellas – mandatory evacuations all mobile home and Zone A
  • St. Lucie – voluntary evacuations
  • Glades – mandatory evacuations around Lake Okeechobee
  • Hardee – voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, mobile homes, and port structures
  • Indian River – voluntary evacuations for barrier islands, low-lying areas
  • Lee – mandatory evacuations for barrier islands – Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva, and Pine Island beginning on Friday AM
  • Tampa is telling everyone in Evacuation Zone A to get out. A mandatory evacuation of the city’s lowest-lying homes will go into effect at 2 p.m.

If you are under evacuation orders, do not mess around with this storm, LEAVE and if you can, leave the state.  Head to Alabama or Mississippi as the entire state of Florida will be impacted by Irma.  You are quickly running out of time to get preparations completed.  In my opinion, they should be completed by noon Saturday and if you are going to leave, do so TONIGHT!  If you’re going to evacuate, be sure you have a full tank of gas, plenty of cash as ATMs may not work if the power fails.  If you are riding the storm out in your home, be sure to have plenty of non-perishable food items for up to a week, along with drinking water, generally 2 to 3 gallons per person for about a week.  Have plenty of batteries for flash lights.  Have a battery-powered radio so you can continue to get the latest updates.  Stay indoors and away from windows!  Again and I can not emphasize this enough, time is running on and preps should be completed by noon tomorrow.

Impacts from Irma include hurricane force winds, that could gust well over 150 mph in the eyewall!  Storm surge flooding from 5 to as much as 10 feet will be possible near and where Irma makes landfall.  Very heavy rainfall, with totals between 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches will be possible near and where Irma makes landfall.  Tornadoes will also be possible!To end this update, we will take a look at what the radar could look like starting at 5 pm on Saturday to 5 pm Sunday.  DO NOT USE THIS FUTURECAST TO MAKE DECISIONS ON WHETHER TO LEAVE OR NOT!! THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL!

Conditions in Florida will deteriorate throughout the day on Saturday as Irma moves closer.  The widespread heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds should begin by Saturday evening, with hurricane force winds likely after midnight.  If this verifies, the worst of Irma should arrive for the Key West area between 1 and 3 am, with the eye over the Keys by 4 am.  For the southern tip of Florida, the worst should be between 3 and 7 am, with the eye moving inland by 8 am.  Irma will then continue northward and by the time this run ends at 5 pm Sunday, the eye could be near Punta Gorda.

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This is a very dangerous and deadly situation!  If you are in Florida, please pay attention to all EMA officials and local law enforcement.  Can not stress enough that you are running out of time to get your preparations done!  We will have another blog tomorrow morning between 6 and 8 am.  Have a great evening!


Severe Potential Remains in Place for Labor Day

Good evening, a beautiful day has shaped in across the state.  Temperatures at the 5 pm hour range from the mid 70s northeast to the mid 80s southwest.  Conditions for tonight will be dry and even as we head into the first half of Labor Day will be dry, but there is the potential for severe storms as there is a slight risk of severe storms for northern and central Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe storms for areas a bit further south. A strong cold front will approach the area from the northwest and move southeast Monday afternoon and evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop and with deep shear, moderate instability, dewpoints that will return to the upper 60s to lower 70s, severe storms will be possible.  Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat, but as the initial storms develop across northern Indiana, can not rule out a tornado or two, especially if storms can become supercellular in nature.  Timing out the storms in Futurecast, storms will likely develop in northeast Illinois and/or northwest Indiana in the afternoon hours, between the hours of 2 and 4 pm and move southeast.  Storms will likely become severe after 6 pm as storms congeal into a squall line.  The following are possible times of arrival for storms…

Lafayette, Kokomo, Fort Wayne 8-9 pm; Muncie, Anderson, Terre Haute, Indianapolis 9-10 pm; Bloomington 10-11 pm; Evansville (in a weaken state) 11-midnight CDT.

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So for Monday, stay weather aware, I would not cancel your plans, as there will be lots of dry time and for most, storms will not arrive until the evening hours.  We will also likely go under a Severe Weather Alert Day.  Be sure to check out and like the Facebook page and also to follow us on Twitter.  We will have another update Monday morning!

Severe Storm Potential for Labor Day

Good morning, the weather overall for today will be quiet across the state, with lots of sunshine and low humidity.  That all will change for our Labor Day as there is a slight risk of severe storms for northern Indiana and a portion of central Indiana.  Marginal risk of severe weather for central Indiana as the Convective Outlook shows.


Labor Day will not be a washout, the morning and a good portion of the afternoon hours will remain quiet as the Futurecast will show below, but as humidity increase and dewpoints will rise back in the upper 60s to near 70 and a strong cold front approaches from the northwest, instability will increase and so will the shower and thunderstorm potential.  Futurecast shows showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop after 3 pm and quickly increase in intensity and coverage and move southeast.  This line of storms will become apparent on radar by the early evening hours in northwest Indiana.  The initial line of storms could have isolated supercells ahead of the storms, and all modes will be possible.  Line will continue to the southeast and will be impacting the following areas:

Lafayette 7-8 pm, Kokomo 8-9 pm, Muncie, Indy, and Terre Haute 9-10 pm, Bloomington 10-11 pm, Evansville between 11-midnight

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The primary threat with the storms Monday afternoon through evening will be damaging winds and large hail, however with the initial development, isolated supercells will be possible, so the threat of a tornado or two will also be possible, especially in northern Indiana where the storms will develop.   Stay weather aware and we will update this later today and on Monday.  Don’t forget to check out the Equinox Weather Facebook page and follow us on Twitter!

Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon through Tonight

Good afternoon, it is a hot and humid across portions of the state.  Temperatures as of 1:05 pm range from the upper 70s generally where rain has fell this morning to the lower 90s in southwest Indiana.  Also cloud cover and a few showers on radar, some heavy from Monticello to Royal Center and Logansport.  This shower is moving a bit south of due east.


On the surface, a stationary warm front that stretches from northeast Nebraska all the way to eastern Indiana, with an area of low pressure to the west of Fort Wayne, this puts nearly all of Indiana under this unstable, humid atmosphere that will later set the stage for the potential for severe storms later.

Jul 21 2017 1320

There is currently a decent cap in place for east-central Indiana that will help keep thunderstorms at bay initially, but this cap will eventually erode and will help aid in thunderstorms later on in the day.

As far as the Convective Outlook is concerned, if you saw on the Equinox Weather Facebook page from 1 pm, an enhanced risk of severe storms for northwest Indiana, with a slight risk for the rest of northern and a portion of central Indiana. Marginal risk of severe storms for the rest of Indiana with the exception of southwest Indiana.  Primary threat will be damaging winds, but can not rule out large hail, or even isolated tornadoes, especially areas to the northwest of Kokomo.

Now as far as the timing is concerned, both of the model runs I’m going to post I’m not totally in agreement with, there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms that will try and develop through the afternoon and early evening, but with the cap in place in the mid levels, it will in essence limit the intensity of the storms until additional storms develop back west in Iowa and Illinois and move southeast through the evening hours and could arrive in northwest Indiana sometime after midnight and continue across the state.  Now the HRRR model want to weaken the storms as they move across the state, which at this point, while I think they will weaken some, I do believe that they will maintain near or over severe limits.  Widespread damaging winds is possible, and within the line, some isolated tornadoes will be possible, again especially areas to the northwest of Kokomo.  The second model, the NAM 3km not only suggest that the storms weaken, but limit the storms to the northern part of the state, could prove to be wrong as storm motion will be between the east-southeast and southeast moving around an upper level high.  Both of these model sets are courtesy of Pivotal Weather…




HRRR Model simulated radar from Noon Friday to 6 am Saturday


NAM 3km Model simulated radar from 5 pm Friday to 8 am Saturday

To sum things up, yes severe weather is expected, but the best and highest chances will likely be after midnight, isolated storms are certainly possible before then and even then.  The areas that will most likely see severe storms will be northwest of Kokomo, however anyone in the marginal or slight risk and especially in the slight risk can see severe storms.  Damaging winds will be primary threat with severe storms, but large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  Last thing that I haven’t discussed, with this tropical airmass still in place, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.  So be weather aware, have a couple of ways to get watch and warning information tonight, and updates will also be available on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon and Evening

Good morning, a current look at the radar shows the shower and thunderstorm complex that I’ve been watching since 2:30 am now impacting northeast Indiana with the southwest area weakening.  Temperatures where it hasn’t rained yet are in the 70s, with cooler temps where it has rained so far.

There is a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening for areas Indy northward, with a marginal risk as far south as near Bloomington.

A look at the SBCAPEs for this afternoon and evening from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning, showing that strong to near extreme instability will be in place for northern Illinois and Indiana, this will be the focus of new thunderstorm development later in the afternoon as Futurecast will show here just a second.  CAPEs by 5 pm will range from around 1000 J/kg in northwest Indiana to near 4000 J/kg across central Indiana.  The following set of graphics courtesy of Pivotal Weather…

Another thing that I look at in times of severe storms, is the Supercell Composite, which shows chances of supercell using a combination of other models, the higher the number, the greater the chance of supercell formation.  Supercell thunderstorms can produce not only damaging winds and large hail, but they can also produce tornadoes.  This model show the highest supercell composite is situated over central Indiana during the afternoon hours, again courtesy of Pivotal Weather…

Which now leads us to the Futurecast and how the radar could look like during the afternoon into the early morning hours Tuesday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken and move to the southeast as the morning turns into the afternoon hours.  Between 3 and 4 pm, we are expecting new thunderstorm development in northwest Indiana and eastern Illinois and move to the southeast, these storms will likely become severe and possibly supercellular in nature and all modes of severe weather will be possible.  This will eventually congeal into a line segment and continue to move southeast through the evening hours and could break into two separate lines, one moving across eastern Indiana and the other line moving across eastern Illinois.  By the time this model run ends by 2 am Tuesday, the cluster of storms will could be affecting east-central Indiana and severe potential is still possible during this time.

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Another item to be concerned about is the heavy rainfall, with ample moisture available, heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorm.  Rainfall totals between now and 2 am Tuesday morning, rainfall totals could range anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to up to 5 inches of rain, depending on where the heaviest rain falls, so where you see the highest rainfall, doesn’t necessarily mean that will where the highest totals will be.

To end this blog, again we are looking at a severe weather potential for areas north of Indy this afternoon and evening hours.  All modes of severe weather is possible as the Severe Storm Index shows.  We will continue to have updates through the rest of today on the Equinox Weather Facebook page, be weather aware and have a way of receiving any watch and warning information.

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