Severe Weather Potential for This Afternoon

Good morning, we are monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon for much of the state, with a focus for much of central Indiana.  We will get to that in a moment, but first, a current look at the radar.  We are seeing showers, some moderate to heavy falling across northwest Indiana.  Some lighter showers getting ready to move into west-central Indiana, and some new showers trying to pop up and develop between Bloomington and Washington.  Temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in northwest Indiana to the lower 70s across southern Indiana.Slide2

Now to the actual Convective Outlook.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Indiana under a slight risk of severe storms mainly for the afternoon hours.  A marginal risk is in place for much of northern and all of southern Indiana.  Some of the cities under the slight risk include Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo, Indianapolis, Noblesville, Westfield, Fishers, Richmond, Greenwood, Lebanon, Zionsville, Pendleton, Marion, Hartford City, Portland, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Greensburg to name a few.  Slide9

Now to breakdown the timing and what the radar could look like from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing mainly across northwest and moving into north-central Indiana, with some lighter showers possible in western Indiana.  As we head into the early afternoon, by 2 pm, is where we could see some strong to potentially severe storms possible across northeast Indiana, perhaps moving into the Kokomo area.  By 4 pm, storms could be moving into east-central and northeast Indiana, so areas like Fort Wayne could be seeing some stronger storms during that time.  Heading into the early evening hours, by 7 pm, we could see some strong to severe storms moving into the Anderson area and closing in on the Muncie area.  By the later evening hours, showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage and intensity as daytime heating is loss.  A look at Futurecast radar is below.

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Finally the threats, for areas in the marginal risk, for those in the marginal risk area, expect damaging winds to be the primary threat.  Some storms could produce large hail, but with lapse rates looking meager, that threat is extremely low.  For areas under the slight risk, damaging winds again will be the primary threat, but there is the potential for isolated supercell storms, and with enough low-level shear, we can not rule out a tornado or two.  We expect the timing for the highest severe weather potential between 2 pm and 9 pm, but can occur anytime between noon and 10 pm.  For updates on radar and more you can like the Equinox Weather Facebook page, or follow us on Twitter.  Be weather aware today!Slide12

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Severe Storm Potential Later This Afternoon and Evening

Good afternoon, it is shaping up to be a warm afternoon across Indiana and Ohio.  Temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s, with cooler 60s across far northern Indiana where showers and thunderstorms moved through earlier in the day.  Currently a few showers on radar across west-central Indiana.Slide1

We are still watching for the potential for severe weather.  Slight risk of severe storms remain for the northern half of Indiana and extreme northwest Ohio, with a marginal risk of severe storms for the southern half of Indiana and western Ohio.  Slide8

As far as the timing of thunderstorms through the rest of today, new development of showers and thunderstorms should begin in a few hours across Illinois and should move into Indiana between 8 and 9 pm.  Another area of showers and thunderstorms could develop across southern Indiana and move into southwest Ohio and weaken as daytime heating is loss.  The line of storms as they move into Indiana will become somewhat broken and more scattered about.   Storms should move across Kokomo and Indy between 10 and 11 pm and the Anderson and Muncie areas between 11 pm and midnight with what is left of the storms to move into Ohio between 10 pm and 1 am.  Storms as they move into Ohio will continue to weaken and storms, whatever left of them will move out of Ohio by 3 or 4 am.  You can see how the storms will evolve in time below…

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Finally, with the threat of severe storms, we need to talk threats, the primary threat of severe storms will be damaging winds, but large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The area that could see the highest tornado potential will be along and north of a Tipton-Elwood-Alexandria-Gaston-Eaton line where low-level shear will be highest.  At this point we do not anticipate going to a higher alert mode ala the “Weather Alert Day” mode, but we will continue to monitor the radar and have continued updates on the Facebook page.  To summarize, we do not expect all areas to see severe weather, but the potential remains especially in the slight risk area, we don’t even expect all areas to see thunderstorms, it will be a 50/50 coverage of storms for late this afternoon through the evening and early overnight hours.  Continue to remain weather aware however and have a great rest of your Wednesday!Slide10

Potential for Severe Weather on Wednesday

Good Tuesday afternoon, we are looking at a pretty nice day across Indiana and Ohio with lots of sunshine and temperatures generally in the 70s, with cooler 50s and 60s near the lake.  Slide1

The purpose of this blog however is to outline the severe threat and possible timing of showers and thunderstorms.  There could be three separate lines of thunderstorms, but the last two lines will likely be the line that could go severe.  First, let’s discuss the areas that will be under the slight and marginal risks of severe storms.  The slight risk of severe storms will be along and west of a Lagrange-Wabash-Greentown-Tipton-Westfield-Speedway-Martinsville line.  Slide9

Now to the timing, on Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, a line of non-severe, but potentially strong showers and thunderstorms will move east across Indiana, and will move into western Ohio in a much weaker state.  The atmosphere will likely be able to recover from the morning storms and several new areas/lines of showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during the early evening hours.  The first line looks to develop in western Illinois, with the other area looks to develop in eastern Illinois.  These lines/areas of storms will move east or southeast into Indiana between 6 and 8 pm and eventually congeal into a solid squall line.  The leading squall line will move into northwest Ohio between 10 and 11 pm and as it moves into Ohio, it will run into a more stable environment and will gradually weaken.  The second line looks to mainly affect northern sections and weaken closer to the midnight hour.  You can see the possible evolution of thunderstorms below.

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Finally, the risks, the main threat right now appears to be damaging winds, but large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.   The best time for severe storms will be between 6 pm and 1 am for Indiana and far western Ohio.  We will have additional updates on the Equinox Weather Facebook page through the day on Wednesday and tomorrow will likely be proclaimed as a “Weather Alert Day”.  Slide12

First Day of Winter, Coldest Air of the Season Looming, White Christmas Possibilities

Good Wednesday morning on what could be quite the blog post on the coldest air of the season looming, and the possibility of a White Christmas.  Let’s start with the first day of Winter is tomorrow and begins at 11:28 am EST, 10:28 am CST.  Weather for today, with the exception of rain chances in southern Kentucky and into West Virginia will be quiet and quiet region wide.  Then we will watch two fronts that will filter in the coldest air we have seen so far this season.  The first front will bring rain chances to the region, with the potential of a rain/snow mix for northwest Indiana.  The Arctic front will move through the region on Saturday and behind this front will bring a changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast and could also produce accumulation.

As far as the potential for accumulating snow and the chances of a White Christmas, any snow that accumulates will stick around with the very cold that will move in and that will be posted in the next section, with that in mind, there is still a lot of uncertainties in how much snow could fall, so I have highlighted the areas where a light snow accumulation is possible between Saturday and Sunday night.  This is highly likely to change so be sure to stay tuned for future forecasts and updates.Slide10

Finally, a look at the temperatures for the next week, most of the region will see the highest temperatures on Friday or Saturday and they will bottom out for the second half of the weekend into next week.  Temperatures for portions of Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday will likely not make it out of the teens with lows in the single digits and even subzero depending on the amount of snow cover.  Wind chills could be well below zero, so we are talking about some very cold air that will be moving in and we will have safety tips on the cold in future posts on the Facebook page.  Below is the temperature for select cities in the Ohio Valley.

We will continue to monitor weather data in the coming days as far as snow potential and the incoming Arctic air mass.  Don’t forget to like the Equinox Weather Facebook page for additional information and updates.  Also check out the Equinox Weather Store to donate,  if you need weather research, to sponsor, or start a weather subscription.

More Snow and Cold On the Way

Good Monday afternoon, we will be watching another clipper system and arctic cold front approach and move through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, then we will be watching for lake effect snow across portions of the Ohio Valley that could dump up to a foot of snow in some places.  First here is a look at the watches, warnings, and advisories that has been posted, but won’t take effect until early Tuesday morning…nwshaz.us_ov

A quick look at current conditions as of 3:30 pm, showing some snow across portions of northern Ohio at this time, some light rain may be mixing in at times.  Temperatures are ranging from 28 degrees in Ravenna, OH to 60 degrees in Paducah, KY.  Slide3

Now taking a look at how the radar could look like from 7 pm this evening to 7 am Wednesday, snow will begin to gradually move into the Ohio Valley and increase in coverage through the evening hours.  Snow will overspread northern and portions of central Indiana after midnight and move into Ohio by 1 am and western West Virginia by 4 am.  As winds turn to the northwest, the lake effect machine will begin to crank up and bands of heavy snow will begin to develop across portions of northern and eastern Indiana, northern Ohio and possibly into portions of northeast Kentucky and West Virginia.  These lake effect snow bands will continue throughout the day on Tuesday into Tuesday evening and gradually winding down by early Wednesday morning.

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By the time the snow winds down by Wednesday morning, some areas in northwest facing lake effect favored areas could see at least 6 inches of snow, especially across portions of northern Indiana and northeast Ohio, with lesser amounts to the southeast.  Higher snowfall totals will be in bands along a small area.  Snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts will be possible outside of the lake effect snow favored areas.  In addition, more cold air will filter in behind this front and temperatures, especially in the northern Ohio Valley will remain in the 20s, combined with winds that could gust up to 35 mph at times, wind chills will be in the single digits.  We will have forecast wind chills on the Equinox Weather Facebook page shortly.  More information will also be available there.

Isolated Severe Storm Potential Saturday

Good afternoon, taking a look at current conditions across the Ohio Valley, clouds are beginning to increase across the area from Indiana eastward to Ohio, lots of clear skies in West Virginia.  Temperatures are generally in the 40s and 50s across the Ohio Valley.

Taking a look at FutureCast from 4 pm this afternoon through 7 am Saturday morning will showers and embedded thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage and in some cases intensity.  Showers will begin to move into Indiana in the early evening hours and thunderstorms may enter into the picture between 7 and 9 pm.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward and move into western Kentucky and Ohio by the late evening hours into the very early morning hours of Saturday morning.  Showers at times may be heavy and some of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.  Heavy rainfall will move into the Cleveland area by 2 am and around the same time, some lighter rain will begin to move into western West Virginia.  Showers and storms will begin to become more scattered about for Indiana.  By 5 am, heavier rain will move into the Charleston area and by the end of the period will move into eastern West Virginia, while more scattered showers and embedded storms will continue for much of Indiana, central Kentucky, and western Ohio.

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Heading into Saturday, there is a marginal risk of severe storms for much of central and southern Indiana, much of Kentucky, and southwest Ohio as a cold front approaches the area.  While there will be lack of instability with this cold front, dewpoints will increase in the upper 50s and a strong low level flow will be sufficient enough for thunderstorm development, in which a few storms could produce damaging winds.  This will not be a widespread potential by any means, and most areas will not see severe weather, but anyone within the marginal risk area could see isolated damaging winds.

We will continue to monitor the situation even we are not anticipating a widespread event.  For further updates, please like the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Severe Weather Potential for Sunday

Good afternoon, before we go into details with the severe weather potential for Sunday, we will take a brief look at the current conditions as of this write up.  Warm front as of 11 am is now in southwest Indiana and this front will continue to push northward.  Showers on radar across northern Indiana, with heavy rainfall from near South Bend to Walkerton.  Temperatures are ranging from a cool 43 in South Bend and Elkhart, to a mild 64 in Evansville, Washington, and Jasper.

Looking ahead to Sunday, a strong cold front will continue to march east and southeastward across the Central Plains and will be in a position from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa to northwest Missouri by Sunday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing as FutureCast will show below.  As of the 1:30 pm Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, an enhanced risk of severe weather is for all of central Indiana and a small portion of northern and southern Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe weather for extreme northern extreme southern Indiana, with a slight risk in between these area.  It is of a quick note that the threats have been pushed southward a bit, and the southward push could continue depending largely on which areas will be in the warm sector.

Now what is causing the severe weather potential is a strong cold front that will sweep through the area on Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.  Bulk shear by Sunday evening will range from 35 kts in southwest Indiana to an incredible 80 kts in northwest Indiana, that is plenty of shear to maintain thunderstorms.  Winds at 5,000 feet will range from 20 kts in northwest Indiana to around 45 kts in southern Indiana.  Lapse rates in excess of 7.5 also suggest the potential for very large hail.  However, the exact location of the warm front, and extensive cloud cover and the possibility of a cap being in place can also limit the overall severe weather potential.  Supercell thunderstorms, some semi-discrete could develop during the afternoon hours, and some of those storms will produce all severe weather modes, including a few tornadoes, especially near the location of the warm front, then the storms will congeal into one or more lines of strong to severe storms, where damaging winds, and a brief spin up tornado or two will be possible.  The main threat for those in the enhanced risk area will be large hail and damaging winds, but again a few tornadoes will be possible and the hail may exceed 2″ in diameter.  For the slight risk area, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but can not rule out an isolated tornado.  In the marginal area, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but there is also a non-zero risk of an isolated tornado.

Finally looking at FutureCast radar from 4 am Sunday through 4 am Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the vicinity of the warm front, some small hail and brief heavy rain may be possible with these storms.  Some of these storms may also play a role in the overall severe weather potential as well.  Stronger rounds of thunderstorms will begin during the early to mid afternoon hours, first starting in Illinois, then moving into Indiana.  It will be some of these storms that will have the potential to become severe.  As we head into the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms, some still could be severe will continue to move ahead of the cold front and with the loss of any daytime heating, these storms will eventually begin to wane slowly after sunset, moving into southern Indiana after midnight.

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Even if the severe weather do not play out as we are expecting it to and that is still entirely possible, heavy rainfall will still be possible with any thunderstorm, and to prove that point, here’s two model solutions of possible rainfall through 7 am Monday.  The GFS is a bit conservative, but still suggesting 1 to 2″ across much of the state.  The NAM 3km model I think might be a little too aggressive at least in the rainfall totals, but as FutureCast showed, most of the heaviest rain will focus on central Indiana, where the model suggests anywhere from 1.5 to 5.25″ of rainfall.  Even the conventional NAM is suggesting over 4″ in east-central Indiana.  Localized flooding will be possible in any of these scenarios.

So to conclude, we are still looking at the potential for severe weather on Sunday, there still remain a few uncertainties that will be answered over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Right now, the area that could see the greatest impacts will be central Illinois and central Indiana, as things have trended a bit more southward.  Heavy rainfall will be possible, even if severe weather do not occur and localized flooding will be possible.  Finally, even though I haven’t mentioned it above, even outside of thunderstorms, winds could gust up to 30 mph ahead of the front that could knock down some branches.  Stay weather aware for Sunday and be sure to keep tuned to the latest information on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

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