Alberto to Bring Heavy Rain, Severe Weather to Indiana

Good afternoon, before getting to the impacts that the remnants of Alberto will bring, let’s take a look at where Alberto is currently.  As of this typing, Alberto is located about 25 miles northwest of Birmingham or about 417 miles south-southwest of Indianapolis.  Alberto is moving to the north at 12 mph and maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph.  Alberto is currently producing heavy rainfall across northwest and central Alabama.Slide4

Alberto will continue to move north to north-northwest through the rest of today into tonight and will move through the Tennessee Valley through the day and move into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday as Alberto will begin to turn to the northeast.  Some of the most outer rainbands will move through southern Indiana this afternoon and evening and the core of Alberto’s remnants will move across the state during the day on Wednesday.  The area that have the potential of seeing the heaviest rainfall will be on the north side of the storm.  The core of Alberto will be affecting the southwest counties Wednesday morning and spread into the Indy area by lunchtime and northern counties by the early evening hours.  Futurecast radar will show the evolution and movement of Alberto and will run from 2 pm this afternoon through midnight Thursday.

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In addition to the heavy rainfall potential on Wednesday, there is the potential for severe weather as well.  There is a marginal risk of severe storm for the northeast half of Indiana, where isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the primary threat.  As the core of Alberto moves across the state, areas that will be in the northeast quadrant will be under the highest potential of seeing severe storms.Slide12Slide15

Finally, how much rain will fall, here is a couple of models that show what will fall, the first model is an in-house model that I think is under doing the total rainfall as this model is showing less than an inch of rainfall through midnight Thursday.  Again, I think that this model is under doing the amount of rainfall that could fall.Slide5

Next is the NAM 3km model rainfall potential through 2 am Thursday.  This models is a bit closer to my thinking with widespread areas in excess of an inch across the state, with pockets of 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals.  NAM 3km

Finally a look at the GFS, rainfall totals again looking a bit lower than my thinking of rainfall will eventually end up being.  GFS for much of the state is showing an inch or less through 2 am Thursday. GFS rainfall

So my thoughts for rainfall.  I think that western Indiana will see the highest rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals of 3 to 3 1/2 inches possible.  Eastern Indiana will likely see closer to 1/2 to an inch of rainfall, with isolated totals of up to 2 inches.  Flash flooding will be possible as this final graphic shows, that there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for southern Indiana this evening and tonight.  A slight risk for excessive rainfall for the entire state on Wednesday, flash flooding will be possible and flash flood watches are already posted for far southern Indiana counties and we will see if watches will be expanded north.  Stay weather aware on Wednesday.  wpc day 1wpc day 1

 

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Severe Weather Potential for This Afternoon

Good morning, we are monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon for much of the state, with a focus for much of central Indiana.  We will get to that in a moment, but first, a current look at the radar.  We are seeing showers, some moderate to heavy falling across northwest Indiana.  Some lighter showers getting ready to move into west-central Indiana, and some new showers trying to pop up and develop between Bloomington and Washington.  Temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in northwest Indiana to the lower 70s across southern Indiana.Slide2

Now to the actual Convective Outlook.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Indiana under a slight risk of severe storms mainly for the afternoon hours.  A marginal risk is in place for much of northern and all of southern Indiana.  Some of the cities under the slight risk include Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo, Indianapolis, Noblesville, Westfield, Fishers, Richmond, Greenwood, Lebanon, Zionsville, Pendleton, Marion, Hartford City, Portland, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Greensburg to name a few.  Slide9

Now to breakdown the timing and what the radar could look like from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing mainly across northwest and moving into north-central Indiana, with some lighter showers possible in western Indiana.  As we head into the early afternoon, by 2 pm, is where we could see some strong to potentially severe storms possible across northeast Indiana, perhaps moving into the Kokomo area.  By 4 pm, storms could be moving into east-central and northeast Indiana, so areas like Fort Wayne could be seeing some stronger storms during that time.  Heading into the early evening hours, by 7 pm, we could see some strong to severe storms moving into the Anderson area and closing in on the Muncie area.  By the later evening hours, showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage and intensity as daytime heating is loss.  A look at Futurecast radar is below.

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Finally the threats, for areas in the marginal risk, for those in the marginal risk area, expect damaging winds to be the primary threat.  Some storms could produce large hail, but with lapse rates looking meager, that threat is extremely low.  For areas under the slight risk, damaging winds again will be the primary threat, but there is the potential for isolated supercell storms, and with enough low-level shear, we can not rule out a tornado or two.  We expect the timing for the highest severe weather potential between 2 pm and 9 pm, but can occur anytime between noon and 10 pm.  For updates on radar and more you can like the Equinox Weather Facebook page, or follow us on Twitter.  Be weather aware today!Slide12

Severe Storm Potential Later This Afternoon and Evening

Good afternoon, it is shaping up to be a warm afternoon across Indiana and Ohio.  Temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s, with cooler 60s across far northern Indiana where showers and thunderstorms moved through earlier in the day.  Currently a few showers on radar across west-central Indiana.Slide1

We are still watching for the potential for severe weather.  Slight risk of severe storms remain for the northern half of Indiana and extreme northwest Ohio, with a marginal risk of severe storms for the southern half of Indiana and western Ohio.  Slide8

As far as the timing of thunderstorms through the rest of today, new development of showers and thunderstorms should begin in a few hours across Illinois and should move into Indiana between 8 and 9 pm.  Another area of showers and thunderstorms could develop across southern Indiana and move into southwest Ohio and weaken as daytime heating is loss.  The line of storms as they move into Indiana will become somewhat broken and more scattered about.   Storms should move across Kokomo and Indy between 10 and 11 pm and the Anderson and Muncie areas between 11 pm and midnight with what is left of the storms to move into Ohio between 10 pm and 1 am.  Storms as they move into Ohio will continue to weaken and storms, whatever left of them will move out of Ohio by 3 or 4 am.  You can see how the storms will evolve in time below…

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Finally, with the threat of severe storms, we need to talk threats, the primary threat of severe storms will be damaging winds, but large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The area that could see the highest tornado potential will be along and north of a Tipton-Elwood-Alexandria-Gaston-Eaton line where low-level shear will be highest.  At this point we do not anticipate going to a higher alert mode ala the “Weather Alert Day” mode, but we will continue to monitor the radar and have continued updates on the Facebook page.  To summarize, we do not expect all areas to see severe weather, but the potential remains especially in the slight risk area, we don’t even expect all areas to see thunderstorms, it will be a 50/50 coverage of storms for late this afternoon through the evening and early overnight hours.  Continue to remain weather aware however and have a great rest of your Wednesday!Slide10

Potential for Severe Weather on Wednesday

Good Tuesday afternoon, we are looking at a pretty nice day across Indiana and Ohio with lots of sunshine and temperatures generally in the 70s, with cooler 50s and 60s near the lake.  Slide1

The purpose of this blog however is to outline the severe threat and possible timing of showers and thunderstorms.  There could be three separate lines of thunderstorms, but the last two lines will likely be the line that could go severe.  First, let’s discuss the areas that will be under the slight and marginal risks of severe storms.  The slight risk of severe storms will be along and west of a Lagrange-Wabash-Greentown-Tipton-Westfield-Speedway-Martinsville line.  Slide9

Now to the timing, on Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, a line of non-severe, but potentially strong showers and thunderstorms will move east across Indiana, and will move into western Ohio in a much weaker state.  The atmosphere will likely be able to recover from the morning storms and several new areas/lines of showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during the early evening hours.  The first line looks to develop in western Illinois, with the other area looks to develop in eastern Illinois.  These lines/areas of storms will move east or southeast into Indiana between 6 and 8 pm and eventually congeal into a solid squall line.  The leading squall line will move into northwest Ohio between 10 and 11 pm and as it moves into Ohio, it will run into a more stable environment and will gradually weaken.  The second line looks to mainly affect northern sections and weaken closer to the midnight hour.  You can see the possible evolution of thunderstorms below.

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Finally, the risks, the main threat right now appears to be damaging winds, but large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.   The best time for severe storms will be between 6 pm and 1 am for Indiana and far western Ohio.  We will have additional updates on the Equinox Weather Facebook page through the day on Wednesday and tomorrow will likely be proclaimed as a “Weather Alert Day”.  Slide12

First Day of Winter, Coldest Air of the Season Looming, White Christmas Possibilities

Good Wednesday morning on what could be quite the blog post on the coldest air of the season looming, and the possibility of a White Christmas.  Let’s start with the first day of Winter is tomorrow and begins at 11:28 am EST, 10:28 am CST.  Weather for today, with the exception of rain chances in southern Kentucky and into West Virginia will be quiet and quiet region wide.  Then we will watch two fronts that will filter in the coldest air we have seen so far this season.  The first front will bring rain chances to the region, with the potential of a rain/snow mix for northwest Indiana.  The Arctic front will move through the region on Saturday and behind this front will bring a changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast and could also produce accumulation.

As far as the potential for accumulating snow and the chances of a White Christmas, any snow that accumulates will stick around with the very cold that will move in and that will be posted in the next section, with that in mind, there is still a lot of uncertainties in how much snow could fall, so I have highlighted the areas where a light snow accumulation is possible between Saturday and Sunday night.  This is highly likely to change so be sure to stay tuned for future forecasts and updates.Slide10

Finally, a look at the temperatures for the next week, most of the region will see the highest temperatures on Friday or Saturday and they will bottom out for the second half of the weekend into next week.  Temperatures for portions of Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday will likely not make it out of the teens with lows in the single digits and even subzero depending on the amount of snow cover.  Wind chills could be well below zero, so we are talking about some very cold air that will be moving in and we will have safety tips on the cold in future posts on the Facebook page.  Below is the temperature for select cities in the Ohio Valley.

We will continue to monitor weather data in the coming days as far as snow potential and the incoming Arctic air mass.  Don’t forget to like the Equinox Weather Facebook page for additional information and updates.  Also check out the Equinox Weather Store to donate,  if you need weather research, to sponsor, or start a weather subscription.

More Snow and Cold On the Way

Good Monday afternoon, we will be watching another clipper system and arctic cold front approach and move through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, then we will be watching for lake effect snow across portions of the Ohio Valley that could dump up to a foot of snow in some places.  First here is a look at the watches, warnings, and advisories that has been posted, but won’t take effect until early Tuesday morning…nwshaz.us_ov

A quick look at current conditions as of 3:30 pm, showing some snow across portions of northern Ohio at this time, some light rain may be mixing in at times.  Temperatures are ranging from 28 degrees in Ravenna, OH to 60 degrees in Paducah, KY.  Slide3

Now taking a look at how the radar could look like from 7 pm this evening to 7 am Wednesday, snow will begin to gradually move into the Ohio Valley and increase in coverage through the evening hours.  Snow will overspread northern and portions of central Indiana after midnight and move into Ohio by 1 am and western West Virginia by 4 am.  As winds turn to the northwest, the lake effect machine will begin to crank up and bands of heavy snow will begin to develop across portions of northern and eastern Indiana, northern Ohio and possibly into portions of northeast Kentucky and West Virginia.  These lake effect snow bands will continue throughout the day on Tuesday into Tuesday evening and gradually winding down by early Wednesday morning.

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By the time the snow winds down by Wednesday morning, some areas in northwest facing lake effect favored areas could see at least 6 inches of snow, especially across portions of northern Indiana and northeast Ohio, with lesser amounts to the southeast.  Higher snowfall totals will be in bands along a small area.  Snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts will be possible outside of the lake effect snow favored areas.  In addition, more cold air will filter in behind this front and temperatures, especially in the northern Ohio Valley will remain in the 20s, combined with winds that could gust up to 35 mph at times, wind chills will be in the single digits.  We will have forecast wind chills on the Equinox Weather Facebook page shortly.  More information will also be available there.

Isolated Severe Storm Potential Saturday

Good afternoon, taking a look at current conditions across the Ohio Valley, clouds are beginning to increase across the area from Indiana eastward to Ohio, lots of clear skies in West Virginia.  Temperatures are generally in the 40s and 50s across the Ohio Valley.

Taking a look at FutureCast from 4 pm this afternoon through 7 am Saturday morning will showers and embedded thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage and in some cases intensity.  Showers will begin to move into Indiana in the early evening hours and thunderstorms may enter into the picture between 7 and 9 pm.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward and move into western Kentucky and Ohio by the late evening hours into the very early morning hours of Saturday morning.  Showers at times may be heavy and some of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.  Heavy rainfall will move into the Cleveland area by 2 am and around the same time, some lighter rain will begin to move into western West Virginia.  Showers and storms will begin to become more scattered about for Indiana.  By 5 am, heavier rain will move into the Charleston area and by the end of the period will move into eastern West Virginia, while more scattered showers and embedded storms will continue for much of Indiana, central Kentucky, and western Ohio.

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Heading into Saturday, there is a marginal risk of severe storms for much of central and southern Indiana, much of Kentucky, and southwest Ohio as a cold front approaches the area.  While there will be lack of instability with this cold front, dewpoints will increase in the upper 50s and a strong low level flow will be sufficient enough for thunderstorm development, in which a few storms could produce damaging winds.  This will not be a widespread potential by any means, and most areas will not see severe weather, but anyone within the marginal risk area could see isolated damaging winds.

We will continue to monitor the situation even we are not anticipating a widespread event.  For further updates, please like the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Severe Weather Potential for Sunday

Good afternoon, before we go into details with the severe weather potential for Sunday, we will take a brief look at the current conditions as of this write up.  Warm front as of 11 am is now in southwest Indiana and this front will continue to push northward.  Showers on radar across northern Indiana, with heavy rainfall from near South Bend to Walkerton.  Temperatures are ranging from a cool 43 in South Bend and Elkhart, to a mild 64 in Evansville, Washington, and Jasper.

Looking ahead to Sunday, a strong cold front will continue to march east and southeastward across the Central Plains and will be in a position from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa to northwest Missouri by Sunday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing as FutureCast will show below.  As of the 1:30 pm Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, an enhanced risk of severe weather is for all of central Indiana and a small portion of northern and southern Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe weather for extreme northern extreme southern Indiana, with a slight risk in between these area.  It is of a quick note that the threats have been pushed southward a bit, and the southward push could continue depending largely on which areas will be in the warm sector.

Now what is causing the severe weather potential is a strong cold front that will sweep through the area on Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.  Bulk shear by Sunday evening will range from 35 kts in southwest Indiana to an incredible 80 kts in northwest Indiana, that is plenty of shear to maintain thunderstorms.  Winds at 5,000 feet will range from 20 kts in northwest Indiana to around 45 kts in southern Indiana.  Lapse rates in excess of 7.5 also suggest the potential for very large hail.  However, the exact location of the warm front, and extensive cloud cover and the possibility of a cap being in place can also limit the overall severe weather potential.  Supercell thunderstorms, some semi-discrete could develop during the afternoon hours, and some of those storms will produce all severe weather modes, including a few tornadoes, especially near the location of the warm front, then the storms will congeal into one or more lines of strong to severe storms, where damaging winds, and a brief spin up tornado or two will be possible.  The main threat for those in the enhanced risk area will be large hail and damaging winds, but again a few tornadoes will be possible and the hail may exceed 2″ in diameter.  For the slight risk area, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but can not rule out an isolated tornado.  In the marginal area, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but there is also a non-zero risk of an isolated tornado.

Finally looking at FutureCast radar from 4 am Sunday through 4 am Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the vicinity of the warm front, some small hail and brief heavy rain may be possible with these storms.  Some of these storms may also play a role in the overall severe weather potential as well.  Stronger rounds of thunderstorms will begin during the early to mid afternoon hours, first starting in Illinois, then moving into Indiana.  It will be some of these storms that will have the potential to become severe.  As we head into the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms, some still could be severe will continue to move ahead of the cold front and with the loss of any daytime heating, these storms will eventually begin to wane slowly after sunset, moving into southern Indiana after midnight.

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Even if the severe weather do not play out as we are expecting it to and that is still entirely possible, heavy rainfall will still be possible with any thunderstorm, and to prove that point, here’s two model solutions of possible rainfall through 7 am Monday.  The GFS is a bit conservative, but still suggesting 1 to 2″ across much of the state.  The NAM 3km model I think might be a little too aggressive at least in the rainfall totals, but as FutureCast showed, most of the heaviest rain will focus on central Indiana, where the model suggests anywhere from 1.5 to 5.25″ of rainfall.  Even the conventional NAM is suggesting over 4″ in east-central Indiana.  Localized flooding will be possible in any of these scenarios.

So to conclude, we are still looking at the potential for severe weather on Sunday, there still remain a few uncertainties that will be answered over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Right now, the area that could see the greatest impacts will be central Illinois and central Indiana, as things have trended a bit more southward.  Heavy rainfall will be possible, even if severe weather do not occur and localized flooding will be possible.  Finally, even though I haven’t mentioned it above, even outside of thunderstorms, winds could gust up to 30 mph ahead of the front that could knock down some branches.  Stay weather aware for Sunday and be sure to keep tuned to the latest information on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Evening update on Nate

Good evening, Nate is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast, here’s a look at the updated watches/warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

At 5 pm, Nate have winds at 90 mph, gusts up to 115 mph.  Nate remains a category 1 hurricane and as I said in the beginning, it is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast.  Shear may also having impacts on Nate.  While there is still a chance for Nate to reach category 2 strength it is likely to remain a strong category 1 at landfall.  Nate is currently only 50 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 140 miles south of Biloxi, MS.  On the forecast track, Nate will move near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River in the next couple of hours and will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Mississippi Gulf coast later this evening or late tonight.

The latest look at the radar, you can see the eye of Nate to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the north-northwest.  Rainbands continuing to rotate onshore and each rainband will produce higher and higher winds.  Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts within the next hour or two, with hurricane force winds moving over the mouth of the Mississippi River within the next two hours, the Louisiana Gulf coast within the next 3 to 4 hours, and the Mississippi Gulf coast within the same time frame.

Impacts for the New Orleans metro area and the rest of the northeast Louisiana Gulf coast, as New Orleans and the Louisiana Gulf coast will likely be on the west side of Nate, winds will likely be on the order of 45 to 65 mph, with gusts to near or over hurricane force.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be the following…Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft, Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Isolated tornadoes may be possible.

Impacts for the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coast, winds will likely be on the order of 75 to 90 mph, with gusts 100 to 110 mph, especially near and just to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches possible.  Storm surge flooding is the following…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  There was a least one reported tornado in Gulf Shores.

There will be other impacts as Nate continues to move inland.  It will quickly weaken and will likely dissipate within four days or sooner.  Rainfall amounts form the southeast, to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, to the southern Appalachians could reach 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.  Rainfall totals for portions of the mid-Atlantic to New England could reach 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible.  This will be the last blog post on Hurricane Nate, additional updates will be on the Facebook page.

11 am update on Hurricane Nate

Nate continues to strengthen but first here’s the latest on the watches and warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be near completion!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Nate currently have winds of 90 mph, which is a category 1 hurricane.  Nate continues to move rapidly to the north-northwest near 26 mph and this motion is expected to continue, with a turn to the north later today.  Nate is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Mississippi or Alabama gulf coast this evening or late tonight.  Nate could graze the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Nate is currently 180 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 265 miles south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate is expected to continue to strengthen and will do so right up to landfall.  Nate will likely be a category 2 hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph, and there is an outside chance that Nate could reach major hurricane status.

Official forecast track for Nate through 24 hours.

A look at the radar from New Orleans shows a pretty strong rain band still offshore but will move onshore within the next hour or two and this rainband could produce wind gusts of over tropical storm force.  The eye is not quite visible yet on radar, but should be within the next couple of hours.

Now to the impacts with Nate for the New Orleans metro area and the northeast Louisiana coast.  First winds, associated with Nate, sustained winds in the New Orleans metro area will be on the order of 45 to 60 mph, with gusts to hurricane force, while areas near and the to east of Slidell and areas near the mouth of the Mississippi and Bayou country will likely see winds 55 to 70 mph, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas of up to 10 inches will be possible and due to the fast motion of Nate, flooding from rainfall will be minimum.  Storm surge flooding for the Louisiana coast will be at the following levels…Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to
6 ft.  An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

Finally, the impacts for the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, winds and gusts of hurricane force will be expected, especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall, which right now could be anywhere from Biloxi to as far east as Mobile.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be as follows…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft and Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially along and east of where Nate makes landfall.

Impacts for Nate will spread beyond where it makes landfall.  As Nate moves further inland, it will interact with a frontal system and spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Appalachians, and New England.  Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 2 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be possible.  Wind gusts of up to tropical storm force will be possible for portions of the southeast, the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.  Preparations should be very near completion for the central Gulf coast and you should be at a safe location to ride out this hurricane.  Additional updates here and on the Facebook page.