Isolated Severe Storm Potential Saturday

Good afternoon, taking a look at current conditions across the Ohio Valley, clouds are beginning to increase across the area from Indiana eastward to Ohio, lots of clear skies in West Virginia.  Temperatures are generally in the 40s and 50s across the Ohio Valley.

Taking a look at FutureCast from 4 pm this afternoon through 7 am Saturday morning will showers and embedded thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage and in some cases intensity.  Showers will begin to move into Indiana in the early evening hours and thunderstorms may enter into the picture between 7 and 9 pm.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward and move into western Kentucky and Ohio by the late evening hours into the very early morning hours of Saturday morning.  Showers at times may be heavy and some of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.  Heavy rainfall will move into the Cleveland area by 2 am and around the same time, some lighter rain will begin to move into western West Virginia.  Showers and storms will begin to become more scattered about for Indiana.  By 5 am, heavier rain will move into the Charleston area and by the end of the period will move into eastern West Virginia, while more scattered showers and embedded storms will continue for much of Indiana, central Kentucky, and western Ohio.

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Heading into Saturday, there is a marginal risk of severe storms for much of central and southern Indiana, much of Kentucky, and southwest Ohio as a cold front approaches the area.  While there will be lack of instability with this cold front, dewpoints will increase in the upper 50s and a strong low level flow will be sufficient enough for thunderstorm development, in which a few storms could produce damaging winds.  This will not be a widespread potential by any means, and most areas will not see severe weather, but anyone within the marginal risk area could see isolated damaging winds.

We will continue to monitor the situation even we are not anticipating a widespread event.  For further updates, please like the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

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Severe Weather Potential for Sunday

Good afternoon, before we go into details with the severe weather potential for Sunday, we will take a brief look at the current conditions as of this write up.  Warm front as of 11 am is now in southwest Indiana and this front will continue to push northward.  Showers on radar across northern Indiana, with heavy rainfall from near South Bend to Walkerton.  Temperatures are ranging from a cool 43 in South Bend and Elkhart, to a mild 64 in Evansville, Washington, and Jasper.

Looking ahead to Sunday, a strong cold front will continue to march east and southeastward across the Central Plains and will be in a position from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa to northwest Missouri by Sunday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing as FutureCast will show below.  As of the 1:30 pm Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, an enhanced risk of severe weather is for all of central Indiana and a small portion of northern and southern Indiana.  A marginal risk of severe weather for extreme northern extreme southern Indiana, with a slight risk in between these area.  It is of a quick note that the threats have been pushed southward a bit, and the southward push could continue depending largely on which areas will be in the warm sector.

Now what is causing the severe weather potential is a strong cold front that will sweep through the area on Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.  Bulk shear by Sunday evening will range from 35 kts in southwest Indiana to an incredible 80 kts in northwest Indiana, that is plenty of shear to maintain thunderstorms.  Winds at 5,000 feet will range from 20 kts in northwest Indiana to around 45 kts in southern Indiana.  Lapse rates in excess of 7.5 also suggest the potential for very large hail.  However, the exact location of the warm front, and extensive cloud cover and the possibility of a cap being in place can also limit the overall severe weather potential.  Supercell thunderstorms, some semi-discrete could develop during the afternoon hours, and some of those storms will produce all severe weather modes, including a few tornadoes, especially near the location of the warm front, then the storms will congeal into one or more lines of strong to severe storms, where damaging winds, and a brief spin up tornado or two will be possible.  The main threat for those in the enhanced risk area will be large hail and damaging winds, but again a few tornadoes will be possible and the hail may exceed 2″ in diameter.  For the slight risk area, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but can not rule out an isolated tornado.  In the marginal area, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but there is also a non-zero risk of an isolated tornado.

Finally looking at FutureCast radar from 4 am Sunday through 4 am Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the vicinity of the warm front, some small hail and brief heavy rain may be possible with these storms.  Some of these storms may also play a role in the overall severe weather potential as well.  Stronger rounds of thunderstorms will begin during the early to mid afternoon hours, first starting in Illinois, then moving into Indiana.  It will be some of these storms that will have the potential to become severe.  As we head into the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms, some still could be severe will continue to move ahead of the cold front and with the loss of any daytime heating, these storms will eventually begin to wane slowly after sunset, moving into southern Indiana after midnight.

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Even if the severe weather do not play out as we are expecting it to and that is still entirely possible, heavy rainfall will still be possible with any thunderstorm, and to prove that point, here’s two model solutions of possible rainfall through 7 am Monday.  The GFS is a bit conservative, but still suggesting 1 to 2″ across much of the state.  The NAM 3km model I think might be a little too aggressive at least in the rainfall totals, but as FutureCast showed, most of the heaviest rain will focus on central Indiana, where the model suggests anywhere from 1.5 to 5.25″ of rainfall.  Even the conventional NAM is suggesting over 4″ in east-central Indiana.  Localized flooding will be possible in any of these scenarios.

So to conclude, we are still looking at the potential for severe weather on Sunday, there still remain a few uncertainties that will be answered over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Right now, the area that could see the greatest impacts will be central Illinois and central Indiana, as things have trended a bit more southward.  Heavy rainfall will be possible, even if severe weather do not occur and localized flooding will be possible.  Finally, even though I haven’t mentioned it above, even outside of thunderstorms, winds could gust up to 30 mph ahead of the front that could knock down some branches.  Stay weather aware for Sunday and be sure to keep tuned to the latest information on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Evening update on Nate

Good evening, Nate is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast, here’s a look at the updated watches/warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

At 5 pm, Nate have winds at 90 mph, gusts up to 115 mph.  Nate remains a category 1 hurricane and as I said in the beginning, it is running out of time to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast.  Shear may also having impacts on Nate.  While there is still a chance for Nate to reach category 2 strength it is likely to remain a strong category 1 at landfall.  Nate is currently only 50 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 140 miles south of Biloxi, MS.  On the forecast track, Nate will move near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River in the next couple of hours and will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Mississippi Gulf coast later this evening or late tonight.

The latest look at the radar, you can see the eye of Nate to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the north-northwest.  Rainbands continuing to rotate onshore and each rainband will produce higher and higher winds.  Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts within the next hour or two, with hurricane force winds moving over the mouth of the Mississippi River within the next two hours, the Louisiana Gulf coast within the next 3 to 4 hours, and the Mississippi Gulf coast within the same time frame.

Impacts for the New Orleans metro area and the rest of the northeast Louisiana Gulf coast, as New Orleans and the Louisiana Gulf coast will likely be on the west side of Nate, winds will likely be on the order of 45 to 65 mph, with gusts to near or over hurricane force.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be the following…Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft, Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Isolated tornadoes may be possible.

Impacts for the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coast, winds will likely be on the order of 75 to 90 mph, with gusts 100 to 110 mph, especially near and just to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches possible.  Storm surge flooding is the following…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft.  Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall.  There was a least one reported tornado in Gulf Shores.

There will be other impacts as Nate continues to move inland.  It will quickly weaken and will likely dissipate within four days or sooner.  Rainfall amounts form the southeast, to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, to the southern Appalachians could reach 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.  Rainfall totals for portions of the mid-Atlantic to New England could reach 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible.  This will be the last blog post on Hurricane Nate, additional updates will be on the Facebook page.

11 am update on Hurricane Nate

Nate continues to strengthen but first here’s the latest on the watches and warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be near completion!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Nate currently have winds of 90 mph, which is a category 1 hurricane.  Nate continues to move rapidly to the north-northwest near 26 mph and this motion is expected to continue, with a turn to the north later today.  Nate is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Mississippi or Alabama gulf coast this evening or late tonight.  Nate could graze the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Nate is currently 180 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 265 miles south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate is expected to continue to strengthen and will do so right up to landfall.  Nate will likely be a category 2 hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph, and there is an outside chance that Nate could reach major hurricane status.

Official forecast track for Nate through 24 hours.

A look at the radar from New Orleans shows a pretty strong rain band still offshore but will move onshore within the next hour or two and this rainband could produce wind gusts of over tropical storm force.  The eye is not quite visible yet on radar, but should be within the next couple of hours.

Now to the impacts with Nate for the New Orleans metro area and the northeast Louisiana coast.  First winds, associated with Nate, sustained winds in the New Orleans metro area will be on the order of 45 to 60 mph, with gusts to hurricane force, while areas near and the to east of Slidell and areas near the mouth of the Mississippi and Bayou country will likely see winds 55 to 70 mph, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas of up to 10 inches will be possible and due to the fast motion of Nate, flooding from rainfall will be minimum.  Storm surge flooding for the Louisiana coast will be at the following levels…Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to
6 ft.  An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

Finally, the impacts for the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, winds and gusts of hurricane force will be expected, especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall, which right now could be anywhere from Biloxi to as far east as Mobile.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be as follows…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft and Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially along and east of where Nate makes landfall.

Impacts for Nate will spread beyond where it makes landfall.  As Nate moves further inland, it will interact with a frontal system and spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Appalachians, and New England.  Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 2 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be possible.  Wind gusts of up to tropical storm force will be possible for portions of the southeast, the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.  Preparations should be very near completion for the central Gulf coast and you should be at a safe location to ride out this hurricane.  Additional updates here and on the Facebook page.

Evening Update on Nate

Good evening, Nate continues to strengthen as it moves closer to the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually the southern Gulf of Mexico.  First here’s the latest on the watches and warnings in effect…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

At 5 pm, Nate now have winds of 60 mph and rapidly moving to the north-northwest near 21 mph and on the forecast track, Nate will move near or over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late tonight or early Saturday morning.  Nate will make landfall along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  Nate is approximately 645 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The latest forecast track for Nate

Nate is continuing to gradually strengthen and still have the potential to reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  With Nate’s rapidly movement rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches will be possible, so while flooding from rainfall may be limited, storm surge flooding however is likely as storm surge potential are as follows for the northern Gulf coast…

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to 6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border…5 to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida…4 to 6 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft

Winds will also gradually be on the increase tonight into Saturday with tropical storm force winds moving on the coast by Saturday afternoon and hurricane force winds will occur within a small area by Saturday night and continue into early Sunday morning.

As Nate moves further inland, heavy rainfall will be possible for portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and New England.  Rainfall amounts in these areas will be in the 3 to 5 inch range, with isolated amounts up to 6 or 7 inches.  Winds of up to tropical storm force will be possible as far north as the Tennessee Valley.

Impacts possible from Nate across the northern Gulf coast

Preparations across the northern Gulf coast should be completed by tonight, early Saturday morning at the latest as conditions will worsen throughout the day on Saturday.  Power outages will also be possible so be sure to have extra cash on hand as ATMs will not work if the power is out.  We will continue to have updates on Nate throughout the day on Saturday on the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

Tropical Storm Nate Friday Morning Update

Good morning, even though the intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Nate will be out by the time I hit publish, will quickly put together this post on the 5 am update on Nate, but first, here is a list of watches and warnings currently in effect…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

At 5 am, Nate had winds of 45 mph, with gusts to 60 mph and moving quickly to the north-northwest at 14 mph.  Nate is approximately 950 miles south-southeast of New Orleans.

Position and official forecast track for Nate.

Nate is not a big tropical storm with tropical storm force winds extending 90 miles from the center.  The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center have Nate skimming the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 12 to 24 hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to gradually strengthen to a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, though some models do suggest that Nate may not reach hurricane strength and even it does reach hurricane strength, we are not expecting Nate to be stronger than an 85 mph hurricane.  The main impacts from Nate due to the likely fast movement of the storm will be storm surge flooding and the potential for power outage and damage.  Those along the northern Gulf coast, now is the time to prepare for a category 1 hurricane and preparations should be complete by the end of today.  Listen to local officials for any evacuation orders.  Stock up on batteries, have plenty of water and non-perishable food items, gas in the car, and cash on hand as ATMs will not work if the power is out.   Also want to point this out, this storm will no way be anything like Harvey, Irma, or Maria thankfully, but Nate will still provide problems of its own.  Once Nate moves across the northern Gulf coast, it will quickly weaken and move northeast across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and will be very near New York City by very early Tuesday morning, spreading heavy rainfall along its path.  Forecast guidance are tightly clustered on the track of Nate.  We will have another update on Nate this afternoon, but those along the northern Gulf coast need to prepare now for this storm.

Impacts along the northern Gulf coast for Nate

Track model guidance for Nate

5 pm update on Irma

Good evening, if you’ve been following on the Facebook page today, you would think it was quite the busy day so far and it has been.  We’ve been going since 4:45 am and stopped only to quickly eat lunch.  Anyways, here is a list of watches and warnings associated with Irma…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

At 5pm, the eye of Irma was located inland, 5 miles north of Naples.  Irma is moving north at 14 mph and this course is expected to continue, with a motion to the north-northwest at times.  On this track, Irma will continue to move along the Florida west coast and may touch the Gulf of Mexico at times during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are down to 110 mph, which now makes Irma a strong category 2.  Continued weakening is forecast, but Irma should remain a hurricane for at least the next 18 to 24 hours.

The follow is the storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 5 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

Rainfall totals especially areas impacted by the northeast quadrant, could see as much as 10 to 20 inches of rain, which will lead to dangerous flash flooding.

Now to the forecast track, now that Irma is inland, the storm will continue to move northward across the Florida peninsula and will continue to weaken.  By Monday afternoon, Irma will be a tropical storm near the Georgia/Florida line, then will move northwest to the east-central Alabama by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.  Then finally becoming a post-tropical system as it moves towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  We will continue to monitor Irma even as it moves through the southeast due to its potential impacts on Indiana’s weather.  Have a great evening!  Slide57

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