Author Archives: Byron Jackson

Latest on Hurricane Lane and impacts on Hawaii

Good morning, before we get to the latest information on Hurricane Lane that continues its approach to the Hawaiian Islands, here is the latest on Hurricane Watches and Warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

Oahu

Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe

Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

Kauai County…including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

At 11 pm, Hawaiian Time, the eye of Hurricane Lane is located about 350 miles south of Honolulu.  Lane is moving slowly to the northwest near 7 mph and this slow motion is expected to continue with a turn to the north-northwest, then a turn to the north is expected by Friday before turning back west by Saturday.  On the forecast track, Lane will come dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands today into Friday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph.  Lane is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.  Some slow weakening is forecast, but Lane will remain a hurricane for the next few days.  Slide11

As you can see above the official forecast on the track of Lane, it is expected to gradually turn to the north-northwest later today and to the north by Friday as Lane gets dangerously close to the Hawaii, the timing of the turn to the west is very critical as it could move over the island of Oahu if the turn to the west can do not occur before getting to the island.  Once the turn to the west do occur by Saturday, it would parallel the Hawaiian island chain.  A look at the radar, you can see the eye well defined south of the Hawaiian islands, with outer rainbands affecting the Big Island, where there have been reports of a foot of rain have already fell.  Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for Hawaii County.Slide7

Impacts on the Hawaiian Islands…

Rainfall/Flooding…Rain will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands today through Friday, with very heavy rainfall occurring at times.  Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts of 30 to 40 inches will be possible.  Life threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible as Lane will be slow moving and hours upon hours of heavy rainfall is expected.

Winds…Tropical storm force winds will also continue to spread across the Big Island today, with hurricane force winds for the Big Islands to occur as early as tonight or early Friday morning.  Tropical storm force winds could reach Maui County as early as this afternoon, with hurricane force winds possible by late tonight or early Friday morning.  For Oahu, tropical storm force winds could begin late tonight into Friday morning, with hurricane force winds possible by Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Storm Surge/Surf…With the slow movement of Lane, large and destructive winds will pound the Hawaiian Islands for several days, which in turn could actually increase coastal flooding concerns, especially for south and west facing beaches.  Storm Surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet on top of battering waves will be possible.

Tornadoes/Waterspouts…A few tornadoes and/or waterspouts will be possible, especially on the northeast quadrant of Lane.

Those who have family or interests in Hawaii, time is quickly running out for the Big Island, all preparations should be near completion this morning, and preps on the other islands should be complete by the end of today!  Slide12

The final portion of this blog is on other preparedness information from the National Weather Service…

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

Severe Threat Potential Looms on Friday

Good afternoon, the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center is in and instead of doing the afternoon update, I’m going to combine it all in one large blog post, this may be a bit on the long side, so bear with me.  We are going to break down some of the larger cities that’s under each of the categorical risk.  The entire state is under the gun for severe storms on Friday, so everyone need to be weather aware tomorrow.  The following cities/locales are under the enhanced risk…Evansville, Jasper, Bedford, Madison.  The following cites are under the slight risk, Indianapolis, Anderson, Muncie, Bloomington, Terre Haute, Richmond.  Finally, these cities are under a marginal risk, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Kokomo, Lafayette, Gary.  Now overall for the state, an enhanced risk of severe storms is possible for southwest and south-central Indiana, with a marginal risk for central Indiana, and a marginal risk for northern Indiana.  Slide15

***Potentially a significant severe weather event is possible, especially in the enhanced risk area***  Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning and we won’t how the morning storms will play in the afternoon/evening severe weather, but right now, conditions are in place for a rather active afternoon/evening.  A new round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon hours and move southeast.  Initial storms may be supercellular in nature and could produce very large hail (up to and possibly slightly over 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes, before storms congeal into line and bowing segments, when damaging winds will become the primary threat, but large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The severe threat may wind down by the early to mid evening hours, but chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the overnight hours.  Following graphics is what the FutureCast radar predicts from 1 am to 8  pm Friday.  Errors in timing between 1 and 2 hours either way…

We are going to end this blog with potential hazards, beginning with the enhanced risk area.  All modes are in play, including the risk of isolated tornadoes, but damaging winds, and large hail, some possibly over 2 inches in diameter will be possible.  Within the slight risk area, I also think that all modes of severe weather are possible, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes may also be possible.  Finally for the marginal risk area, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, but can not totally rule out a tornado or two.

To end this blog, I will say what I normally would say, there’s a lot of uncertainties in regards to the overall severe weather potential, we have seen where conditions dynamically looked favorable, little or no severe weather occurred.  This could very well happen again tomorrow.  The keys is again how the morning convection, how fast it can move out of the area, and whether we see strong surface heating, if the sun can remain in check and we are dominated with cloud cover, then the severe threat will be limited, however, areas that end up seeing prolonged sunshine and strong surface heating, then those will be the areas that will most likely see the severe weather.  The best you can do is remain weather aware, follow the safety tips below, have a plan of action in the event of warnings, and we will get through tomorrow together, whether severe weather occurs or not.  As far as coverage, we will likely begin coverage as the morning storms move into the state, likely during the overnight hours around 1 or 2 am and we will continue until the severe potential is over.  Tomorrow will be declared a “Weather Alert Day”.  Updates will be available on our Facebook page.  Slide51

Cooler, Drier Air Returns to Indiana

Good morning, one more day of hot and humid conditions as a cold front will continue to push east and southeast into the state through the day.  As of this morning, the front was analyzed as a cold front from southeast Wisconsin into north-central Illinois, then as a stationary front from north-central Illinois to the Illinois/Missouri border, then as a cold front again from the IL/MO border south and west.  By this afternoon, the cold front will move further east and southeast and will extend from southeast Michigan to northwest and west-central Ohio to southeast to southwest Indiana.  By early Tuesday morning, the front will be well east of the area.

As mentioned, today there will be the last day at least for a few days of the hot and humid air.  Highs today will range from 86 to 89 and dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s, so we will have more of that tropical air and any thunderstorms today will bring the potential for heavy rainfall.  Once the front passes through and we head into Tuesday, temperatures will warm from 80 to 88, but the dewpoint (which is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to become saturated with water vapor), will be much lower and in the comfortable to tolerable category from the lower 50s to lower 60s.  Wednesday will very much be the pick of the week, as highs will only warm in the 79 to 84 degree range and dewpoints only in the 50s to lower 60s.  Thursday, we begin to warm up a bit, but still in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range, so still will remain very comfortable.

Even beyond Thursday, the temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a greater chance of below normal temperatures for the rest of this month.  You can find those maps on the Forecast and Long Range Probability Maps section of the website.  Have a great Monday, and enjoy the cooler temperatures that’s to come!

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

Good morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed east-central and southeast Indiana under a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon.  So what I wanted to do is produce a quick blog on what we could see today and overall, the risk is not that great.  While we will have plenty of instability, shear is really lacking and will only be 20 kts or less and you need at least 30 kts or more of shear for ideal severe storm development.  A cold front will provide the focus for storm development this afternoon and motion with the storms will generally be southeast today.  The graphic below shows the areas under the marginal risk (there will be an update from the Storm Prediction Center around 9 am)Slide15

So taking a look at what FutureCast shows, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop sometime after noon, and this could very depending on when the cap erodes.  We expect a broken line of storms to move southeast through the afternoon hours, it will not be widespread showers and thunderstorms, in fact some areas may not see any rainfall today, but areas that do see storms, especially in the east-central and southeast counties, could see heavy rainfall, and again that potential for isolated severe storms.  We expect by 4 pm the line to be along a Lafayette-Kokomo-Marion line, moving along a Crawfordsville-Anderson-Muncie line by 6 pm, and a Terre Haute-Indy-Richmond line by 7 pm.  After 8 pm, as daytime heating is decreasing, the storms should begin to weaken and by 10 pm, most of the storms should have dissipated, with only isolated storms possible for southern counties.  This timeframe is not etched in stone and there could be variations of this timeline, so error plus or minus an hour.

 

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Finally, the Severe Threat Index, we are not expecting widespread severe weather, most of the area under the marginal risk will likely not see any severe storms, but for those who are under the marginal risk, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, we will have updates on the Facebook page throughout the day.  If any storms do become severe, damaging winds will be the primary threat, some of the most intense storms could produce hail, but that potential is very low.  Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm, but widespread flooding is also not likely, could see some ponding on roadways and minor flash flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.  Overall, again, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, this will not be a widespread threat, most of the day should remain dry, and in fact, some areas may not even see any rainfall today.  Stay weather aware and have a great Tuesday!Slide16

Heat and Humidity Makes Return to Indiana to End June

Good afternoon, right now it is not as bad outside as it will be in the coming days.  Temperatures as of 5 pm ranging from the 60s in far northern counties, to 90 degrees in Evansville, but as we head towards the weekend, temperatures will warm well into the 90s and the humidity will be on the rise as well.

Already, Excessive Heat Watches have been posted from Friday morning through Saturday evening for northwest Indiana counties, and from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for northern Indiana counties.  Slide16

Breaking down the temperatures from Thursday through Sunday, starting tomorrow, the heat and humidity will be the worst for far southern counties.  Northern and central counties should not be as warm as southern counties.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the mid to upper 80s for northern and central counties, and low to mid 90s for southern counties.  On Friday, the entire state will be well in the warm sector and the heat and humidity will be in full force.  Highs on Friday will be in the 91 to 95 degree range, locally higher in some locations.  Heat indices will range from 99 to 106.  Saturday will likely be the hottest and most humid of the next four days.  Highs will be in the mid to possibly upper 90s, and thanks to the recent rainfall, it won’t be much warmer than that, but combine that with dewpoints that will easily be in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be in the 103 to 110 degree range.  On Sunday, it will still be hot, but we will also add in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Highs Sunday will be in the 89 to 94 degree range, with heat indices between 94 and 102.  There will be little relief from the heat, aside for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and as mentioned above, a better chance on Sunday.

The following graphics are ways to beat the heat and to recognize the signs of heat stroke.  Take care over the next few days, be sure to check up on those who don’t have air conditioning.  Do not leave children or pets inside an unattended vehicle for NO reason.  A car can warm up as much as 50 to 60 degrees in a hour with the windows rolled up and car not running.

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Alberto to Bring Heavy Rain, Severe Weather to Indiana

Good afternoon, before getting to the impacts that the remnants of Alberto will bring, let’s take a look at where Alberto is currently.  As of this typing, Alberto is located about 25 miles northwest of Birmingham or about 417 miles south-southwest of Indianapolis.  Alberto is moving to the north at 12 mph and maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph.  Alberto is currently producing heavy rainfall across northwest and central Alabama.Slide4

Alberto will continue to move north to north-northwest through the rest of today into tonight and will move through the Tennessee Valley through the day and move into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday as Alberto will begin to turn to the northeast.  Some of the most outer rainbands will move through southern Indiana this afternoon and evening and the core of Alberto’s remnants will move across the state during the day on Wednesday.  The area that have the potential of seeing the heaviest rainfall will be on the north side of the storm.  The core of Alberto will be affecting the southwest counties Wednesday morning and spread into the Indy area by lunchtime and northern counties by the early evening hours.  Futurecast radar will show the evolution and movement of Alberto and will run from 2 pm this afternoon through midnight Thursday.

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In addition to the heavy rainfall potential on Wednesday, there is the potential for severe weather as well.  There is a marginal risk of severe storm for the northeast half of Indiana, where isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the primary threat.  As the core of Alberto moves across the state, areas that will be in the northeast quadrant will be under the highest potential of seeing severe storms.Slide12Slide15

Finally, how much rain will fall, here is a couple of models that show what will fall, the first model is an in-house model that I think is under doing the total rainfall as this model is showing less than an inch of rainfall through midnight Thursday.  Again, I think that this model is under doing the amount of rainfall that could fall.Slide5

Next is the NAM 3km model rainfall potential through 2 am Thursday.  This models is a bit closer to my thinking with widespread areas in excess of an inch across the state, with pockets of 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals.  NAM 3km

Finally a look at the GFS, rainfall totals again looking a bit lower than my thinking of rainfall will eventually end up being.  GFS for much of the state is showing an inch or less through 2 am Thursday. GFS rainfall

So my thoughts for rainfall.  I think that western Indiana will see the highest rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals of 3 to 3 1/2 inches possible.  Eastern Indiana will likely see closer to 1/2 to an inch of rainfall, with isolated totals of up to 2 inches.  Flash flooding will be possible as this final graphic shows, that there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for southern Indiana this evening and tonight.  A slight risk for excessive rainfall for the entire state on Wednesday, flash flooding will be possible and flash flood watches are already posted for far southern Indiana counties and we will see if watches will be expanded north.  Stay weather aware on Wednesday.  wpc day 1wpc day 1

 

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