Severe Threat Potential Looms on Friday

Good afternoon, the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center is in and instead of doing the afternoon update, I’m going to combine it all in one large blog post, this may be a bit on the long side, so bear with me.  We are going to break down some of the larger cities that’s under each of the categorical risk.  The entire state is under the gun for severe storms on Friday, so everyone need to be weather aware tomorrow.  The following cities/locales are under the enhanced risk…Evansville, Jasper, Bedford, Madison.  The following cites are under the slight risk, Indianapolis, Anderson, Muncie, Bloomington, Terre Haute, Richmond.  Finally, these cities are under a marginal risk, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Kokomo, Lafayette, Gary.  Now overall for the state, an enhanced risk of severe storms is possible for southwest and south-central Indiana, with a marginal risk for central Indiana, and a marginal risk for northern Indiana.  Slide15

***Potentially a significant severe weather event is possible, especially in the enhanced risk area***  Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning and we won’t how the morning storms will play in the afternoon/evening severe weather, but right now, conditions are in place for a rather active afternoon/evening.  A new round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon hours and move southeast.  Initial storms may be supercellular in nature and could produce very large hail (up to and possibly slightly over 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes, before storms congeal into line and bowing segments, when damaging winds will become the primary threat, but large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The severe threat may wind down by the early to mid evening hours, but chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the overnight hours.  Following graphics is what the FutureCast radar predicts from 1 am to 8  pm Friday.  Errors in timing between 1 and 2 hours either way…

We are going to end this blog with potential hazards, beginning with the enhanced risk area.  All modes are in play, including the risk of isolated tornadoes, but damaging winds, and large hail, some possibly over 2 inches in diameter will be possible.  Within the slight risk area, I also think that all modes of severe weather are possible, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes may also be possible.  Finally for the marginal risk area, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, but can not totally rule out a tornado or two.

To end this blog, I will say what I normally would say, there’s a lot of uncertainties in regards to the overall severe weather potential, we have seen where conditions dynamically looked favorable, little or no severe weather occurred.  This could very well happen again tomorrow.  The keys is again how the morning convection, how fast it can move out of the area, and whether we see strong surface heating, if the sun can remain in check and we are dominated with cloud cover, then the severe threat will be limited, however, areas that end up seeing prolonged sunshine and strong surface heating, then those will be the areas that will most likely see the severe weather.  The best you can do is remain weather aware, follow the safety tips below, have a plan of action in the event of warnings, and we will get through tomorrow together, whether severe weather occurs or not.  As far as coverage, we will likely begin coverage as the morning storms move into the state, likely during the overnight hours around 1 or 2 am and we will continue until the severe potential is over.  Tomorrow will be declared a “Weather Alert Day”.  Updates will be available on our Facebook page.  Slide51

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Cooler, Drier Air Returns to Indiana

Good morning, one more day of hot and humid conditions as a cold front will continue to push east and southeast into the state through the day.  As of this morning, the front was analyzed as a cold front from southeast Wisconsin into north-central Illinois, then as a stationary front from north-central Illinois to the Illinois/Missouri border, then as a cold front again from the IL/MO border south and west.  By this afternoon, the cold front will move further east and southeast and will extend from southeast Michigan to northwest and west-central Ohio to southeast to southwest Indiana.  By early Tuesday morning, the front will be well east of the area.

As mentioned, today there will be the last day at least for a few days of the hot and humid air.  Highs today will range from 86 to 89 and dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s, so we will have more of that tropical air and any thunderstorms today will bring the potential for heavy rainfall.  Once the front passes through and we head into Tuesday, temperatures will warm from 80 to 88, but the dewpoint (which is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to become saturated with water vapor), will be much lower and in the comfortable to tolerable category from the lower 50s to lower 60s.  Wednesday will very much be the pick of the week, as highs will only warm in the 79 to 84 degree range and dewpoints only in the 50s to lower 60s.  Thursday, we begin to warm up a bit, but still in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range, so still will remain very comfortable.

Even beyond Thursday, the temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a greater chance of below normal temperatures for the rest of this month.  You can find those maps on the Forecast and Long Range Probability Maps section of the website.  Have a great Monday, and enjoy the cooler temperatures that’s to come!

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

Good morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed east-central and southeast Indiana under a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon.  So what I wanted to do is produce a quick blog on what we could see today and overall, the risk is not that great.  While we will have plenty of instability, shear is really lacking and will only be 20 kts or less and you need at least 30 kts or more of shear for ideal severe storm development.  A cold front will provide the focus for storm development this afternoon and motion with the storms will generally be southeast today.  The graphic below shows the areas under the marginal risk (there will be an update from the Storm Prediction Center around 9 am)Slide15

So taking a look at what FutureCast shows, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop sometime after noon, and this could very depending on when the cap erodes.  We expect a broken line of storms to move southeast through the afternoon hours, it will not be widespread showers and thunderstorms, in fact some areas may not see any rainfall today, but areas that do see storms, especially in the east-central and southeast counties, could see heavy rainfall, and again that potential for isolated severe storms.  We expect by 4 pm the line to be along a Lafayette-Kokomo-Marion line, moving along a Crawfordsville-Anderson-Muncie line by 6 pm, and a Terre Haute-Indy-Richmond line by 7 pm.  After 8 pm, as daytime heating is decreasing, the storms should begin to weaken and by 10 pm, most of the storms should have dissipated, with only isolated storms possible for southern counties.  This timeframe is not etched in stone and there could be variations of this timeline, so error plus or minus an hour.

 

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Finally, the Severe Threat Index, we are not expecting widespread severe weather, most of the area under the marginal risk will likely not see any severe storms, but for those who are under the marginal risk, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, we will have updates on the Facebook page throughout the day.  If any storms do become severe, damaging winds will be the primary threat, some of the most intense storms could produce hail, but that potential is very low.  Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm, but widespread flooding is also not likely, could see some ponding on roadways and minor flash flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.  Overall, again, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, this will not be a widespread threat, most of the day should remain dry, and in fact, some areas may not even see any rainfall today.  Stay weather aware and have a great Tuesday!Slide16

Heat and Humidity Makes Return to Indiana to End June

Good afternoon, right now it is not as bad outside as it will be in the coming days.  Temperatures as of 5 pm ranging from the 60s in far northern counties, to 90 degrees in Evansville, but as we head towards the weekend, temperatures will warm well into the 90s and the humidity will be on the rise as well.

Already, Excessive Heat Watches have been posted from Friday morning through Saturday evening for northwest Indiana counties, and from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for northern Indiana counties.  Slide16

Breaking down the temperatures from Thursday through Sunday, starting tomorrow, the heat and humidity will be the worst for far southern counties.  Northern and central counties should not be as warm as southern counties.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the mid to upper 80s for northern and central counties, and low to mid 90s for southern counties.  On Friday, the entire state will be well in the warm sector and the heat and humidity will be in full force.  Highs on Friday will be in the 91 to 95 degree range, locally higher in some locations.  Heat indices will range from 99 to 106.  Saturday will likely be the hottest and most humid of the next four days.  Highs will be in the mid to possibly upper 90s, and thanks to the recent rainfall, it won’t be much warmer than that, but combine that with dewpoints that will easily be in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be in the 103 to 110 degree range.  On Sunday, it will still be hot, but we will also add in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Highs Sunday will be in the 89 to 94 degree range, with heat indices between 94 and 102.  There will be little relief from the heat, aside for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and as mentioned above, a better chance on Sunday.

The following graphics are ways to beat the heat and to recognize the signs of heat stroke.  Take care over the next few days, be sure to check up on those who don’t have air conditioning.  Do not leave children or pets inside an unattended vehicle for NO reason.  A car can warm up as much as 50 to 60 degrees in a hour with the windows rolled up and car not running.

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Alberto to Bring Heavy Rain, Severe Weather to Indiana

Good afternoon, before getting to the impacts that the remnants of Alberto will bring, let’s take a look at where Alberto is currently.  As of this typing, Alberto is located about 25 miles northwest of Birmingham or about 417 miles south-southwest of Indianapolis.  Alberto is moving to the north at 12 mph and maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph.  Alberto is currently producing heavy rainfall across northwest and central Alabama.Slide4

Alberto will continue to move north to north-northwest through the rest of today into tonight and will move through the Tennessee Valley through the day and move into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday as Alberto will begin to turn to the northeast.  Some of the most outer rainbands will move through southern Indiana this afternoon and evening and the core of Alberto’s remnants will move across the state during the day on Wednesday.  The area that have the potential of seeing the heaviest rainfall will be on the north side of the storm.  The core of Alberto will be affecting the southwest counties Wednesday morning and spread into the Indy area by lunchtime and northern counties by the early evening hours.  Futurecast radar will show the evolution and movement of Alberto and will run from 2 pm this afternoon through midnight Thursday.

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In addition to the heavy rainfall potential on Wednesday, there is the potential for severe weather as well.  There is a marginal risk of severe storm for the northeast half of Indiana, where isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the primary threat.  As the core of Alberto moves across the state, areas that will be in the northeast quadrant will be under the highest potential of seeing severe storms.Slide12Slide15

Finally, how much rain will fall, here is a couple of models that show what will fall, the first model is an in-house model that I think is under doing the total rainfall as this model is showing less than an inch of rainfall through midnight Thursday.  Again, I think that this model is under doing the amount of rainfall that could fall.Slide5

Next is the NAM 3km model rainfall potential through 2 am Thursday.  This models is a bit closer to my thinking with widespread areas in excess of an inch across the state, with pockets of 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals.  NAM 3km

Finally a look at the GFS, rainfall totals again looking a bit lower than my thinking of rainfall will eventually end up being.  GFS for much of the state is showing an inch or less through 2 am Thursday. GFS rainfall

So my thoughts for rainfall.  I think that western Indiana will see the highest rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals of 3 to 3 1/2 inches possible.  Eastern Indiana will likely see closer to 1/2 to an inch of rainfall, with isolated totals of up to 2 inches.  Flash flooding will be possible as this final graphic shows, that there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for southern Indiana this evening and tonight.  A slight risk for excessive rainfall for the entire state on Wednesday, flash flooding will be possible and flash flood watches are already posted for far southern Indiana counties and we will see if watches will be expanded north.  Stay weather aware on Wednesday.  wpc day 1wpc day 1

 

Severe Weather Potential for This Afternoon

Good morning, we are monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon for much of the state, with a focus for much of central Indiana.  We will get to that in a moment, but first, a current look at the radar.  We are seeing showers, some moderate to heavy falling across northwest Indiana.  Some lighter showers getting ready to move into west-central Indiana, and some new showers trying to pop up and develop between Bloomington and Washington.  Temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in northwest Indiana to the lower 70s across southern Indiana.Slide2

Now to the actual Convective Outlook.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Indiana under a slight risk of severe storms mainly for the afternoon hours.  A marginal risk is in place for much of northern and all of southern Indiana.  Some of the cities under the slight risk include Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo, Indianapolis, Noblesville, Westfield, Fishers, Richmond, Greenwood, Lebanon, Zionsville, Pendleton, Marion, Hartford City, Portland, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Greensburg to name a few.  Slide9

Now to breakdown the timing and what the radar could look like from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing mainly across northwest and moving into north-central Indiana, with some lighter showers possible in western Indiana.  As we head into the early afternoon, by 2 pm, is where we could see some strong to potentially severe storms possible across northeast Indiana, perhaps moving into the Kokomo area.  By 4 pm, storms could be moving into east-central and northeast Indiana, so areas like Fort Wayne could be seeing some stronger storms during that time.  Heading into the early evening hours, by 7 pm, we could see some strong to severe storms moving into the Anderson area and closing in on the Muncie area.  By the later evening hours, showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage and intensity as daytime heating is loss.  A look at Futurecast radar is below.

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Finally the threats, for areas in the marginal risk, for those in the marginal risk area, expect damaging winds to be the primary threat.  Some storms could produce large hail, but with lapse rates looking meager, that threat is extremely low.  For areas under the slight risk, damaging winds again will be the primary threat, but there is the potential for isolated supercell storms, and with enough low-level shear, we can not rule out a tornado or two.  We expect the timing for the highest severe weather potential between 2 pm and 9 pm, but can occur anytime between noon and 10 pm.  For updates on radar and more you can like the Equinox Weather Facebook page, or follow us on Twitter.  Be weather aware today!Slide12

Severe Storm Potential Later This Afternoon and Evening

Good afternoon, it is shaping up to be a warm afternoon across Indiana and Ohio.  Temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s, with cooler 60s across far northern Indiana where showers and thunderstorms moved through earlier in the day.  Currently a few showers on radar across west-central Indiana.Slide1

We are still watching for the potential for severe weather.  Slight risk of severe storms remain for the northern half of Indiana and extreme northwest Ohio, with a marginal risk of severe storms for the southern half of Indiana and western Ohio.  Slide8

As far as the timing of thunderstorms through the rest of today, new development of showers and thunderstorms should begin in a few hours across Illinois and should move into Indiana between 8 and 9 pm.  Another area of showers and thunderstorms could develop across southern Indiana and move into southwest Ohio and weaken as daytime heating is loss.  The line of storms as they move into Indiana will become somewhat broken and more scattered about.   Storms should move across Kokomo and Indy between 10 and 11 pm and the Anderson and Muncie areas between 11 pm and midnight with what is left of the storms to move into Ohio between 10 pm and 1 am.  Storms as they move into Ohio will continue to weaken and storms, whatever left of them will move out of Ohio by 3 or 4 am.  You can see how the storms will evolve in time below…

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Finally, with the threat of severe storms, we need to talk threats, the primary threat of severe storms will be damaging winds, but large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The area that could see the highest tornado potential will be along and north of a Tipton-Elwood-Alexandria-Gaston-Eaton line where low-level shear will be highest.  At this point we do not anticipate going to a higher alert mode ala the “Weather Alert Day” mode, but we will continue to monitor the radar and have continued updates on the Facebook page.  To summarize, we do not expect all areas to see severe weather, but the potential remains especially in the slight risk area, we don’t even expect all areas to see thunderstorms, it will be a 50/50 coverage of storms for late this afternoon through the evening and early overnight hours.  Continue to remain weather aware however and have a great rest of your Wednesday!Slide10

Potential for Severe Weather on Wednesday

Good Tuesday afternoon, we are looking at a pretty nice day across Indiana and Ohio with lots of sunshine and temperatures generally in the 70s, with cooler 50s and 60s near the lake.  Slide1

The purpose of this blog however is to outline the severe threat and possible timing of showers and thunderstorms.  There could be three separate lines of thunderstorms, but the last two lines will likely be the line that could go severe.  First, let’s discuss the areas that will be under the slight and marginal risks of severe storms.  The slight risk of severe storms will be along and west of a Lagrange-Wabash-Greentown-Tipton-Westfield-Speedway-Martinsville line.  Slide9

Now to the timing, on Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, a line of non-severe, but potentially strong showers and thunderstorms will move east across Indiana, and will move into western Ohio in a much weaker state.  The atmosphere will likely be able to recover from the morning storms and several new areas/lines of showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during the early evening hours.  The first line looks to develop in western Illinois, with the other area looks to develop in eastern Illinois.  These lines/areas of storms will move east or southeast into Indiana between 6 and 8 pm and eventually congeal into a solid squall line.  The leading squall line will move into northwest Ohio between 10 and 11 pm and as it moves into Ohio, it will run into a more stable environment and will gradually weaken.  The second line looks to mainly affect northern sections and weaken closer to the midnight hour.  You can see the possible evolution of thunderstorms below.

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Finally, the risks, the main threat right now appears to be damaging winds, but large hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.   The best time for severe storms will be between 6 pm and 1 am for Indiana and far western Ohio.  We will have additional updates on the Equinox Weather Facebook page through the day on Wednesday and tomorrow will likely be proclaimed as a “Weather Alert Day”.  Slide12

First Day of Winter, Coldest Air of the Season Looming, White Christmas Possibilities

Good Wednesday morning on what could be quite the blog post on the coldest air of the season looming, and the possibility of a White Christmas.  Let’s start with the first day of Winter is tomorrow and begins at 11:28 am EST, 10:28 am CST.  Weather for today, with the exception of rain chances in southern Kentucky and into West Virginia will be quiet and quiet region wide.  Then we will watch two fronts that will filter in the coldest air we have seen so far this season.  The first front will bring rain chances to the region, with the potential of a rain/snow mix for northwest Indiana.  The Arctic front will move through the region on Saturday and behind this front will bring a changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast and could also produce accumulation.

As far as the potential for accumulating snow and the chances of a White Christmas, any snow that accumulates will stick around with the very cold that will move in and that will be posted in the next section, with that in mind, there is still a lot of uncertainties in how much snow could fall, so I have highlighted the areas where a light snow accumulation is possible between Saturday and Sunday night.  This is highly likely to change so be sure to stay tuned for future forecasts and updates.Slide10

Finally, a look at the temperatures for the next week, most of the region will see the highest temperatures on Friday or Saturday and they will bottom out for the second half of the weekend into next week.  Temperatures for portions of Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday will likely not make it out of the teens with lows in the single digits and even subzero depending on the amount of snow cover.  Wind chills could be well below zero, so we are talking about some very cold air that will be moving in and we will have safety tips on the cold in future posts on the Facebook page.  Below is the temperature for select cities in the Ohio Valley.

We will continue to monitor weather data in the coming days as far as snow potential and the incoming Arctic air mass.  Don’t forget to like the Equinox Weather Facebook page for additional information and updates.  Also check out the Equinox Weather Store to donate,  if you need weather research, to sponsor, or start a weather subscription.

More Snow and Cold On the Way

Good Monday afternoon, we will be watching another clipper system and arctic cold front approach and move through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, then we will be watching for lake effect snow across portions of the Ohio Valley that could dump up to a foot of snow in some places.  First here is a look at the watches, warnings, and advisories that has been posted, but won’t take effect until early Tuesday morning…nwshaz.us_ov

A quick look at current conditions as of 3:30 pm, showing some snow across portions of northern Ohio at this time, some light rain may be mixing in at times.  Temperatures are ranging from 28 degrees in Ravenna, OH to 60 degrees in Paducah, KY.  Slide3

Now taking a look at how the radar could look like from 7 pm this evening to 7 am Wednesday, snow will begin to gradually move into the Ohio Valley and increase in coverage through the evening hours.  Snow will overspread northern and portions of central Indiana after midnight and move into Ohio by 1 am and western West Virginia by 4 am.  As winds turn to the northwest, the lake effect machine will begin to crank up and bands of heavy snow will begin to develop across portions of northern and eastern Indiana, northern Ohio and possibly into portions of northeast Kentucky and West Virginia.  These lake effect snow bands will continue throughout the day on Tuesday into Tuesday evening and gradually winding down by early Wednesday morning.

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By the time the snow winds down by Wednesday morning, some areas in northwest facing lake effect favored areas could see at least 6 inches of snow, especially across portions of northern Indiana and northeast Ohio, with lesser amounts to the southeast.  Higher snowfall totals will be in bands along a small area.  Snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts will be possible outside of the lake effect snow favored areas.  In addition, more cold air will filter in behind this front and temperatures, especially in the northern Ohio Valley will remain in the 20s, combined with winds that could gust up to 35 mph at times, wind chills will be in the single digits.  We will have forecast wind chills on the Equinox Weather Facebook page shortly.  More information will also be available there.