Author Archives: Byron Jackson

The Future of Equinox Weather

Hi all,

As you may or may not know at this point, but I recently had a health scare in which I spent Thursday and part of Friday in the hospital, and the Friday before that in the ER and in recent months, many more trips to the ER and the hospital.  I’ve had my share of scares in recent months, but none as close as the one on Thursday.  However, because of my scares, I have lost clients and now the future of Equinox Weather is in a bit of peril.  I usually don’t ask for a lot of help, but without new clients, sponsorship’s, or donations, I may have to shut down my business within the next few months.  While many of the products I do provide are free of charge as I think a basic forecast and severe weather coverage should always be provided for free and that will never change, however where I do make my money is through ads on the website, donations, clients, and sponsorship’s.  If you own a small business that depend on weather information, please consider becoming a client for more detailed weather and analysis sent daily to your email or consider getting a 1, 3, 6, or 12 month sponsorship.  This will allow for your business logo to appear on our graphics and get a sponsorship shout out on all posts, and a special spot on our website.  For individuals, please consider getting a monthly subscription for 10 day forecasts for your city to be sent to your email daily.  Finally, if you can not afford a subscription and just want to make a donation, you can do by clicking the link.  While I really want to continue for a long time to come, the costs of my weather subscriptions to radars, software, and other means are adding up, the lack of clients is overall hurting business.  So if you can help in anyway it is most certainly appreciated, but what I could use way more is the continued prayers for continued recovery.  I may get over and recover from this part of my health scare, I still have many others that I have to worry about daily.  God Bless and thank you!

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Live Blog: March 14, 2019, Severe Weather Likely Today

1:14 pm EDT

Due to a potential medical emergency, I have to stop coverage for now, but please, find a good way to get warnings through the afternoon!

12:58 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0958.png

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Dubois County in south central Indiana…

* Until 130 PM EDT.

* At 1255 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winslow, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Jasper, Huntingburg, Holland, Dubois, Hillham, Celestine, Portersville, Millersport, Dubois Crossroads, and Norton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:56 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0958.png

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

East central Martin County in southwestern Indiana… Lawrence County in south central Indiana…

* Until 130 PM EDT.

* At 1254 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shoals, or 15 miles southwest of Bedford, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Bedford, Mitchell, Oolitic, Heltonville, Williams, Avoca, Spring Mill State Park, Silverville, Huron, Tunnelton and Bartlettsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:48 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0951.png

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… East central Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Pike County in southwestern Indiana… North central Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 1147 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Chandler, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. Several circulations in this warning, one was in Henderson county, another was in northeast Warrick county.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

Boonville around 1150 AM CDT.

Lynnville and Folsomville around 1155 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Spurgeon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

12:45 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0946.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR MARTIN COUNTY…

At 1242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shoals, or 20 miles southwest of Bedford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include… Shoals, Loogootee, Crane, Burns City, Indian Springs and Lacy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:38 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0940.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY…

At 1237 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Jasper, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include… Jasper, Thales, Cuzco, Portersville, Ireland, Dubois Crossroads, Kellerville, Crystal and Haysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

12:31 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0933.png

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Northern Dubois County in south central Indiana…

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1230 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of Winslow, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include… Jasper, Dubois, Duff, Thales, Cuzco, Portersville, Millersport, Ireland, Dubois Crossroads and Kellerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:27 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0927

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Central Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Pike County in southwestern Indiana… Northern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 1119 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Darmstadt, or near Melody Hill, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

Lynnville around 1130 AM CDT.

Oakland City around 1235 PM EDT.

Winslow around 1240 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mackey, Elberfeld, Somerville and Spurgeon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

12:15 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0916.png

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Martin County in southwestern Indiana… Daviess County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1213 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Washington, or 15 miles northeast of Petersburg, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Shoals, Loogootee, Odon, Elnora, Montgomery, Crane, Cannelburg, Alfordsville, West Boggs Lake, Indian Springs, Burns City, Lacy and Glendale Fishery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:11 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0913.png

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southwestern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… East central Posey County in southwestern Indiana… Northwestern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky… Northeastern Union County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 1110 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Uniontown, or 8 miles north of Breckinridge Center, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near… Henderson around 1125 AM CDT. Evansville around 1130 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

12:07 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0907.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR EASTERN KNOX AND DAVIESS COUNTIES…

At 1203 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Washington, or 14 miles north of Petersburg, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include… Washington, Odon, Elnora, Monroe City, Wheatland, Plainville, Sandborn, Montgomery and Cannelburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:05 pm EDT

THE TORNADO WARNING FOR VANDERBURGH…EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED…

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. Additional storms are likely. Stay aware.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for southwestern Indiana…and northwestern Kentucky.

12:03 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0904.png

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Northern Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Pike County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1130 AM CDT.

* At 1101 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chandler, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. Power lines were reported down in Evansviille by the public.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Lynnville, Elberfeld, Spurgeon and Mackey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:01 pm EDT

MD 207 graphic

Areas affected…central and northeast IL…northwest IN

Concerning…Severe potential…

Watch possible Valid 141554Z – 141730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over the next 1-2 hours and likely become surface-based across central IL. A tornado risk will probably accompany the stronger storms with the tornado risk perhaps moving into northeast IL early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across central IL with breaks in the clouds over northeast IL into northwest IN as of 1030am CDT. A mid-level vorticity maximum located over the mid MS Valley is expected to move northeast across central IL during the next several hours. Surface analysis shows temperatures warming into the lower 60s with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s over central IL. The 12Z Lincoln, IL raob showed a very cold 500mb temperature (-21.7 deg C) with an 8 degree C/km 700-500mb lapse rate, it appears 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Given the very strong to extreme shear profile coupled with the very steep lapse rate, it appears tornado potential is greater than previously anticipated and an upgrade in tornado probabilities will be reflected in the upcoming 1630Z convective outlook. If robust surface-based supercells in fact develop, a strong tornado is possible mainly east of the US51/I-39 corridor in east-central and into northeast portions of IL this afternoon.

11:55 am EDTMar 14 2019 0859.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR EASTERN KNOX AND DAVIESS COUNTIES…

At 1151 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Petersburg, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include… Washington, Bicknell, Odon, Elnora, Monroe City, Wheatland, Plainville, Sandborn, Montgomery, Edwardsport and Cannelburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

11:53 am EDTMar 14 2019 0855

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR VANDERBURGH…EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES…

At 1051 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

Locations impacted include… Evansville, Melody Hill, Darmstadt and Kasson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

11:51 am EDTMar 14 2019 0850.png

Short term concern within the next 30 minutes to an hour is the circled areas within southwest Indiana where severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes remain possible.  This area of concern will grow and expand northeastward as we get into the afternoon hours.

11:44 am EDTMar 14 2019 0843

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Eastern Knox County in southwestern Indiana… Daviess County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1215 PM EDT.

* At 1141 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Patoka, or near Princeton, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Washington, Bicknell, Odon, Elnora, Monroe City, Wheatland, Plainville, Sandborn, Montgomery, Edwardsport and Cannelburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

11:39 am EDTMar 14 2019 0841

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… East central Posey County in southwestern Indiana… Northwestern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1115 AM CDT.

* At 1038 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles north of Corydon, or 9 miles west of Henderson, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Emergency Management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near…

Evansville and Kasson around 1050 AM CDT.

Melody Hill and

Darmstadt around 1055 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

11:30 am EDT

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Northwestern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Northeastern Posey County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1100 AM CDT.

* At 1029 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poseyville, or 13 miles southwest of Fort Branch, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Princeton, Fort Branch, Oakland City, Haubstadt, Owensville, Poseyville, Patoka, Cynthiana, Francisco and Somerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 14 2019 0832

11:15 am EDTMar 14 2019 0815

On the radar as of 11:15 am, two areas of concern, the most immediate concern is storms across southwest Indiana due to the fact that they are currently severe thunderstorm warned.  These storms will continue to rapidly move northeast and likely intensify further as we head into the afternoon hours.  In addition, watching the activity across central Indiana, while mainly heavy rainfall is the primary concern, these could also intensify and with this type of environment, we are watching for new storm development that could become supercellular in nature and produce problems of their own.  It’s going to be a busy afternoon and we will try and keep everyone ahead of these storms.

11:04 am EDT

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… West central Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… South central Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Northern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Northeastern Posey County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 1001 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Blairsville, or near Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Evansville, Mount Vernon, Fort Branch, Haubstadt, Darmstadt, Cynthiana, Blairsville, Kasson and Elberfeld.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 14 2019 0806

11:00 am EDT

Just seeing a report within the last few minutes, that a tornado just missed the National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky.

10:56 am EDTMar 14 2019 0753

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of

Extreme southeastern Illinois

Central and southern Indiana

Western and central Kentucky

Parts of western Ohio

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1045 AM until 500 PM EDT. *

Primary threats include…

Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Broken band of supercells is spreading rapidly northeastward across western Kentucky, and the trend should continue into the afternoon across southern Indiana and potentially reach western Ohio this afternoon. The fast moving storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, along with damaging winds and isolated large hail.

REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

10:40 am EDTMar 14 2019 0740

If there is a tornado it will be located likely between Shawneetown and Uniontown, KY heading towards Uniontown.  So if you have family or friends in Uniontown, have them seek shelter immediately!  From there, this possible tornado will cross into Indiana into southern Posey County.  There should now be no travel on SR 62 between Mount Vernon and the Posey/Vanderburgh county line.  This storm is showing about 77 mph of gate to gate shear, so if a tornado is down, it is likely not a very strong one, but one that can and will do damage.  So those in southern Posey County need to be taking shelter immediately ahead of this possible tornado and those in Vanderburgh County need to be monitoring this very closely!

10:36 am EDT

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for… Southeastern Gallatin County in southern Illinois… Southern Posey County in southwestern Indiana… West central Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky… Central Union County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1000 AM CDT.

* At 934 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Shawneetown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near… Uniontown around 945 AM CDT.

Mount Vernon around 955 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Old Shawneetown and Waverly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Mar 14 2019 0738

10:33 am EDT

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 141431Z – 141630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Supercell intensity via strengthening low-level mesocyclones will probably intensify further during the next few hours as heating and a slight increase in buoyancy contribute to a greater tornado risk spreading northeast in a destabilizing warm sector.

DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover across the lower OH Valley with a couple of supercells moving quickly northeast (230 deg at 52kt). Surface analysis shows temperatures over western KY ranging from near 70 degrees F with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Farther northeast in southwest IN and adjacent portions to the east along the OH River, temperatures are rising into the upper 50s to near 60 with dewpoints in the upper 50s. The PAH VAD shows 500 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. 13Z RAP forecast soundings indicate as the airmass gradually destabilizes during the late morning, a risk for low-level mesocyclones capable of a tornado threat will likely increase. Upwards of 500 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to develop. Currently thinking the greatest risk for tornadoes will accompany the quasi-discrete supercell activity as it moves from western KY downstream into southwest IN during the next several hours which will coincide with the diurnal heating cycle on the north-end of the near 60 degrees F surface dewpoints.MD 205 graphic

10:12 am EDT

Here is a look at the statewide radar, the hope is that all cloud cover and rainfall will help to work the atmosphere over enough, so that any severe threat this afternoon will be limited.  The heaviest rain right now is falling over the west-central counties and all the activity will move in a northeast direction today.  Temperatures across the state, very uniform in the mid to upper 50s.  As of now, the entire state, in particular the eastern portion of the state is under the gun for severe weather this afternoon.  We will continue to have the latest updates here and on the Facebook page, but this is the go to page for today!  Mar 14 2019 0711

10:05 am EDT

Two areas we are monitoring, the storm crossing into west-central Indiana and this storm that is moving across southern Illinois and western Kentucky. This storm is currently warned on for damaging winds.  This storm have also exhibited signs of rotation at times.  This storm is racing northeast at 70 mph and on current track and speed, could move into southwest Indiana counties within the hour.  So we are monitoring closely.Mar 14 2019 0701

9:44 am EDT

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FOUNTAIN…PARKE AND VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM EDT…

At 942 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Paris, moving northeast at 75 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include… Clinton, Covington, Rockville, Veedersburg, Newport, Attica, Fairview Park, Cayuga, Montezuma, Dana, Hillsboro, Kingman, Perrysville, Universal, Mecca, Bloomingdale, Marshall, Newtown, Mellott and Wallace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.Mar 14 2019 0645

9:01 am EDT

The latest from the Storm Prediction Center on the Convective Outlook has just be released and the only change noted was the marginal risk for extreme southwest Indiana has been upgraded to a slight risk.  So now the entire state of Indiana is either under a slight or enhanced risk of severe storms late this morning into the afternoon.  While the morning convection is still playing some doubts on the overall risk for this afternoon one thing is clear, most of the state should see some type of severe weather by this afternoon.  In addition, in the final paragraph of the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center states this…

“SHOULD A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING/GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP,
CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO RISK AREA GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT.
THIS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION IS ASSESSED.”

Basically what that means, if a greater area of instability develop, or if surface heating is higher than expected, there could be the potential likely somewhere within the enhanced risk area that strong tornadoes may be possible.  We will keep a very close eye on this possibility and have additional updates throughout the morning into the afternoon.Slide1

7:08 am EDT

Good morning, we are starting off the live blog this morning with the look at the Convective Outlook and highlighting the cities that are under the Enhanced and Slight risk areas…First the map…Slide1

The Enhanced Risk covers nearly all of eastern Indiana in the orange, with the slight risk covers northern and western counties in the yellow.  For extreme southwest Indiana, a marginal risk is possible.  While we won’t go into exact timing, the general timing will be from late this morning through the early evening is where you need to be on guard.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the threat of tornadoes.  Damaging winds will also be possible, as well as large hail.  Even outside of thunderstorms, winds today could gust up to 55 mph.Slide3

On radar this morning, we do have showers with embedded thunderstorms from roughly Anderson points southward, with some lighter showers across northern Indiana.  This area of showers and storms will not be severe, but brief heavy rainfall will be possible from these showers.  Temperatures are in the 50s.Mar 14 2019 0427

That is all for this initial update, the next Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center should be out within the next hour and a half and we will have it here, especially if there’s any major updates.  Just have a plan of action ready to go in the event warnings are issued, we will try and get on FB live if possible.  Be weather aware and keep refreshing this page frequently for updates.

Live Blog: Severe Weather Potential, March 9, 2019

8:02 pm EST

We will be ending this blog as the threat of severe weather is over as the Storm Prediction Center has removed the slight and marginal risks out of the state.  The atmosphere just wasn’t able to destabilize and that was one of the concerns in the overall severe weather potential that fortunately did not happen.  However, a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into west-central Indiana could produce small hail and gusty winds so we will continue to monitor them and have updates on the Facebook page.  Have a great evening!

6:32 pm EST

Severe storms if they were to occur will be between now and about 10 or 11 pm.  MUCAPEs at this point are only in the 500 J/kg range.  Shear, especially across southwest counties between 50 and 75 kts.  Helicity in the lowest 1 km are in excess of 200 m2/s2, all of this continues to show the potential for severe storms to occur.  Satellite is showing clear skies across portions of Illinois and extreme west-central and southwest Indiana.  There is also a chance that the clearing came a bit too late to destabilize the atmosphere, but we will continue to monitor the radar and as long as the threat for severe weather remains, we will continue with this live blog.  Right now, the area that could see the best risk of severe weather will be the southwest counties.

4:18 pm EST

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

Areas affected…southern Illinois and vicinity

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 092117Z – 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with damaging wind or perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION…A warm front continues to move northward across the St. Louis area and into southern Illinois, with substantial clearing allowing for additional heating as well. Surface analysis shows mid 50s F dewpoints surging northward, with 2hr pressure falls up to 6 mb. An axis of near-60 F dewpoints exists over extreme southern Illinois southward into Arkansas as of 21Z. A small cluster of thunderstorms is currently moving toward the St. Louis area with indications of strong wind gusts. This is very near the surface low/upper vort track, and is coincident with strong cooling aloft. A small window of opportunity might exist for at least isolated severe storms ahead of the surface low and near the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate instability is weak, but may briefly increase enough to support low-topped supercells. Wind shear profiles are very strong, and should a supercell form, a tornado threat would naturally exist.MD 174 graphic

3:44 pm EST

Good afternoon, things are trying to ramp up and in fact, the Storm Prediction Center has again expanded the marginal risk up to the Kokomo area. The main threat in the marginal risk will be damaging winds. The only other change is that the slight risk have been slimmed a bit to mainly southwest counties. Within the slight risk, all modes remain possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat and isolated tornadoes and large hail being the primary threats. We will continue to monitor the situation and have updates here as long as the threat remains.Slide1

12:47 pm EST

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EST…

At 1244 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Patoka, or 7 miles east of Mount Carmel, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include… Vincennes, Bicknell, Oaktown, Monroe City, Wheatland, Bruceville, Edwardsport, Decker, Vincennes University and Freelandville.Mar 9 2019 0946

11:44 am EST

The slight and marginal risk areas have been expanded a bit northward.  The slight risk areas have expand northward across nearly all of Knox County, while the marginal risk now covers all of Vigo County.  At this time, we do not expect any further northward expansion in the outlook areas, but there remains a possibility that an isolated strong or severe storm could sneak north of I-70 later today.  Reasoning from this morning discussion remains unchanged.  Primary threat remains damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes and large hail as the secondary threats.  We will continue to have updates on the live blog as long as the threat remains.

11:44 am EST

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EST…

At 1135 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Patoka, or 8 miles north of Princeton, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include… Vincennes, Bicknell, Oaktown, Monroe City, Wheatland, Bruceville, Plainville, Edwardsport, Decker, Vincennes University and Freelandville.Mar 9 2019 0843

10:31 am EST

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL WARRICK AND EAST CENTRAL VANDERBURGH COUNTIES…

At 929 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Chandler, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include… Evansville and Melody Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 9 2019 0732

10:28 am EST

Here’s a look at the Convective Outlook, the next update from the Storm Prediction Center will be in an hour.

Slide1

10:24 am EST

Our first warning of the day was recently issued for southwest Indiana, details are below…

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Southwestern Warrick County in southwestern Indiana…

Southern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana…

Northeastern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 945 AM CST.

* At 919 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Evansville, Newburgh and Melody Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 9 2019 0721

Live Blog: Severe Weather Potential February, 23, 2019

7:18 pm EST update

We are going to end the live blog again, however if any additional significant tornadoes occur, we will resume the blog.

7:03 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southwestern Henderson County in western Tennessee…

North central McNairy County in western Tennessee…

Southeastern Madison County in western Tennessee…

Chester County in western Tennessee…

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 601 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located over Chickasaw State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Henderson, Chickasaw State Park, Silerton, Jacks Creek, Mifflin, Masseyville, Finger, Enville, Medon, Pinson, Parkburg, Huron, Palestine, Hickory Corners, Deanburg, Roby, Five Points, Montezuma, Cabo and Middle Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

7:00 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Fayette County in west central Alabama…

* Until 700 PM CST.

* At 558 PM CST, a tornado producing storm was located near Belk, or 7 miles southeast of Vernon, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Winfield, Fayette, Glen Allen, Belk, Bluff, Bevill State College Fayette, Hubbertville and Bazemore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

6:42 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northeastern Hardeman County in western Tennessee…

South central Madison County in western Tennessee…

Southwestern Chester County in western Tennessee…

* Until 615 PM CST.

* At 541 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near Bolivar, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Bolivar, Chickasaw State Forest, Chickasaw State Park, Silerton, Cloverport, Toone, Medon, Pine Top, Parkburg, Uptonville, Deanburg, Teague and Shandy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

6:31 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southern Lamar County in west central Alabama…

* Until 615 PM CST.

* At 527 PM CST, a tornado producing storm was located over Steens, or near Columbus, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Vernon, Millport, Kennedy, Blooming Grove, Cody, Star, Hightogy and Melborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

6:26 pm EST update

We are resuming the blog as a dangerous tornado moving through Columbus, MS…

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY…

At 520 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Columbus, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

The tornado will be near…

Steens around 530 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

5:48 pm EST update

We are going to end the live blog updates.  For updated warnings, be sure to check out your local media outlet and the National Weather Service.

5:25 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for… Kemper County in east central Mississippi…

Southeastern Neshoba County in east central Mississippi…

* Until 530 PM CST.

* At 424 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bethsaida, or 8 miles south of Philadelphia, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

House around 430 PM CST.

Herbert Springs around 435 PM CST.

Forestdale around 440 PM CST.

Damascus around 445 PM CST.

Liberty and Bluff Springs around 450 PM CST.

De Kalb around 505 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Tucker and Scooba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

5:22 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for… Southern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi… Northern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi…

* Until 500 PM CST.

* At 422 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near New Wren, or near Aberdeen, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Amory, Aberdeen, Smithville, New Wren, New Salem, Hatley, Sipsey Fork, Becker, Quincy, Cardsville, Turon, Splunge, Wren, Bigbee, Jacinto and Parham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

5:05 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northeastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi…

Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi…

Northwestern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi…

* Until 430 PM CST.

* At 404 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located 8 miles southwest of Jumpertown, or 10 miles northwest of Baldwyn, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Booneville, Jumpertown, Dumas, Rienzi, Graham, Jericho, Geeville, Locum, Blackland, Gaston and Frankstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:56 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Cullman County in north central Alabama…

South central Morgan County in north central Alabama…

* Until 430 PM CST.

* At 355 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Good Hope, or 7 miles west of Cullman, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Cullman, Good Hope, Falkville, Baldwin, Vinemont, Baileyton, West Point, Eva, Lacon and Logan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:33 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Cullman County in north central Alabama…

* Until 400 PM CST.

* At 331 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Smith Lake, or near Arley, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. The public has reported a funnel cloud or wall cloud over Smith Lake with this storm.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Cullman, Good Hope, Baldwin, West Point, Phelan, Logan, Crane Hill, Jones Chapel and Smith Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:22 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southeastern Winston County in northwestern Alabama…

* Until 345 PM CST.

* At 319 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Curry, or 7 miles north of Jasper, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…

Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Arley, Nesmith, Smith Lake, Falls City, Helicon, Mill Branch, Panther Branch, Maple Branch, Wilson Bend, Devils Branch, Seymour Branch, Duncan Bridge, Little Dismal Creek, Bear Branch, Coon Creek, Big Bear Branch, Hidden Cove Campground, Battle Branch, Butler Branch and Cutoff Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:09 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

North central Walker County in central Alabama…

* Until 330 PM CST.

* At 307 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Carbon Hill, moving northeast at 40 mph.Slide3

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Jasper, Curry, Smith Lake, Cedrum Area, Holly Grove, Lupton, Gamble and Walker County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

4:03 pm EST updateWW0006 WOU

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch

for portions of Northern and central Alabama

Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CST. *

Primary threats include…

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Multiple areas of potential severe storms should affect parts of Alabama and Tennessee through this evening. The greatest threat for tornadoes should exist across the western portion of the watch area.

3:37 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 127 graphic

Areas affected…central and north-central MS

Concerning…Tornado Watch 5

Valid 232035Z – 232130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

SUMMARY…A relative weakness in low-level shear has limited potential for storm-scale rotation up until now. Low-level shear and hodograph enlargement is forecast for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. A corresponding increase in severe risk is expected.

DISCUSSION…KDGX VAD data through the early afternoon has exhibited relatively modest low-level shear (0-1 km SRH less than 150 m2/s2). Coupled with some weakness in the mid-level lapse rate above 500mb, the two factors have combined to limit storm organization in the low levels and the severe risk through 200-230 pm CST. However, a gradual increase in 700mb flow is expected through 6 pm and low-level storm rotation potential is expected to increase coincident with the hodograph enlarging and not exhibiting the degree of veer-back-veer tendency shown in earlier raobs. As such, gradual storm intensification and increase in the severe risk with an accompanying threat for tornadoes is expected.

3:24 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Eastern Yazoo County in central Mississippi… Central Madison County in central Mississippi…

* Until 300 PM CST.

* At 222 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Flora, or 17 miles south of Yazoo City, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

Little Yazoo around 230 PM CST.

Myrleville around 235 PM CST.

Benton around 240 PM CST.

Way around 245 PM CST. Vaughan around 250 PM CST.

Cameron around 300 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Bentonia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

3:13 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 126 graphic

Areas affected…west-central AL

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 231958Z – 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent

SUMMARY…Storms are intensifying in west-central AL and at least one has exhibited weak/transient rotation indicative of a marginal supercell. Will monitor convective trends in the short term regarding the need for a tornado watch before the risk of severe weather increases later this evening.

DISCUSSION…A couple of storms have developed during the past 1-2 hours near the AL/MS border to the east of Meridian, MS and west of Tuscaloosa, AL. The storms have developed in the warm sector and seemingly due to both diurnal heating and within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. The thunderstorm activity will likely coincide with the diurnal heating cycle and it is possible this activity weakens with the onset of diurnal cooling. However, if 1 or 2 storms can become bootstrapped and become unequivocally surface-based, the transition to supercell would occur and a risk for a tornado or two may accompany these storms. This possible scenario is highly uncertain but there is greater confidence the severe risk will increase towards early evening as the thunderstorms over MS move into western AL.

3:06 pm EST update

The marginal and slight risk areas have been dropped from Indiana, however, we are still looking at the moderate risk areas for portions of Mississippi and Tennessee, therefore we will continue on with the live blog post for any tornado warnings that may be issued, or severe thunderstorm warnings, in which damaging winds in excess of 70 mph will be possible.  Strong storms do remain possible for Indiana, with gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be possible until frontal passage.Slide1Slide2

1:40 pm EST update

On the radar, we are seeing a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings as thunderstorms are approaching the Memphis area.  These storms have been capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and penny size hail or less.  A line of strong storms extending from south-central Arkansas to north-central Louisiana and other broken lines of storms across eastern Louisiana.  These storms will continue to rapidly move northeast.  Slide3

Back to Illinois and Indiana, while rain and even some freezing rain is falling across northwest Indiana, some lighter showers are moving into southwest Indiana.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms across west-central and southern Illinois rapidly moving northeast as well.  Some of the storms could move into Indiana later this afternoon.  We will continue to have updates throughout the afternoon.Slide5

1:30 pm EST update

A Tornado Watch has been issued Eastern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and Western Tennessee.  Details below…WW0005 WOU

Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Mississippi Western Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CST. *

Primary threats include… Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely

Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Scattered severe storms are expected to develop mainly during the mid to late afternoon and early evening across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. The greatest tornado risk should exist across northern and central Mississippi into far southwest Tennessee between about 3 to 7 PM.

12:00 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 124 graphic

Areas affected…central and northern LA…southeast AR…central and northern MS Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231652Z – 231845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…A tornado watch will likely be needed between 12-1pm for LA into portions of AR and MS. One or two tornado watches will likely be required by early afternoon over the lower MS Valley region.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows a weak squall line developing over northwest LA into southwestern AR. The squall line is co-located with the Pacific front/dryline over the Sabine Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows a broken cumulus field from northeast LA through MS where surface heating is contributing to temperatures rising into the lower to middle 70s degrees F. The 9am Univ. Louisiana Monroe special Vortex2SE sounding showed a residual capping inversion near 700mb. The capping inversion has so far impeded sustained, free warm sector convective development to the east of the squall line. The 14.1 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio indicative of a very moist airmass beneath 8.7 degree C/km 700-500mb lapse rates, are suggestive of moderate buoyancy developing this afternoon as temperatures gradually warm through the middle 70s. Some slight cooling of mid-level temperatures —reducing the effects of a warm layer noticed above 500mb in the Monroe, LA sounding— may occur during the next few hours and further contribute to destabilization. Strengthening mid-to high-level flow fields this afternoon will promote storm organization with a favored tendency for supercells with updrafts not located within a cold pool-forced ascent regime (i.e., squall line). As such, strong low-level shear will potentially favor strong low-level mesocyclone rotation with the more robust/discrete updrafts. A couple of tornadoes, in addition to damaging winds, are the primary hazards.

11:45 am EST update

The 11:30 am EST update to the Convective Outlook has been released and there have been no changes to the outlook.  Here is a quick look at the map.Slide1

In addition, here’s a closer look at the Convective Outlook for Indiana, and the bullseye for the severe potential, Mississippi…Slide2Slide2

So the cities of Oxford, Tupelo, Greenville, Greenwood, and Starkville in Mississippi really need to be weather aware between the hours of 2 pm and 8 pm CST for the highest risk of severe storms, as all modes are in play from widespread damaging winds, large hail, and the threat for long-lived, significant tornadoes.  As our focus today will continue to be on the severe weather potential for Indiana, we will also post any warnings outside of the state for storms that could be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 70 mph or higher, or “large and extremely dangerous tornadoes”.  We want to keep as many as possible ahead of the storms and safe.  Finally, a look at the latest radar, while things remain largely quiet across Indiana, you can see what could be the beginnings of the severe weather outbreak, as showers and thunderstorms dot central and northeast Arkansas and a line of storms that extend from southwest Arkansas to the Shreveport, LA area.  We expect this line to continue to intensify as we head into the afternoon hours.  We are also watching storms in Missouri that could impact Indiana later in the day as well.  Additional updates throughout the day.Slide3Slide3

8:25 am EST update

We are beginning this live blog post this morning with the overall look at the severe weather potential for the nation today.  There is a moderate risk of severe storms today for portions of western Tennessee, extreme northwest Alabama, and northern Mississippi.  An enhanced risk of severe storms for western and portions of middle Tennessee, northwest Alabama, central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, and extreme southwest Kentucky.  A slight risk of severe storms for portions of middle Tennessee, much of northern and portions of central Alabama, portions of southern Mississippi, northern Louisiana, central and eastern Arkansas, portions of southeast Missouri, portions of southern Illinois, extreme southwest and south-central Indiana, and western and portion of central Kentucky.Slide1

While we will of course be monitoring Indiana throughout the day, we also will keep a very close eye on those in the enhanced and moderate risk area as there not only the potential for widespread damaging winds, and large hail, but the potential for long-tracked, significant tornadoes.  While we will of course monitor Indiana and post on all warnings, we will also post warnings for any “large and extremely dangerous” tornado warned storms, or for any severe thunderstorm warnings that winds in excess of 70 mph will be possible.  So be sure to stay tuned to the live blog post throughout the day.

Live Blog: Yet Another Winter Storm Feb 10-11, 2019

8:00 am PST update

This update is mainly to report the snowfall totals from the Sunday storm.  The big winner, nearly 2 feet of snow in Snoqualmie Pass, with most areas seeing between 2 and 5 inches.  This is only the partial list, for the complete list, just click on this link.  We will be adding to these totals through the day today.  Slide5

5:35 am PST Feb 11 update

Good morning, we are watching round 4 of snowfall that will move from south to north today.  On radar currently, there is likely a convergence zone in King County where snow is falling in the Seattle area points east and south.  Additional rain and snow down in southwest Washington and that is round 4 of the wintry weather.  Slide4

Now let’s get to the warnings and advisories that’s currently in effect and all of Western Washington is under either a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity- Admiralty Inlet Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties- Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Western Whatcom County

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON for the following areas…Southwest Interior

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING for the following areas…Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Olympics

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON for the following areas…Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON for the following areas…Central Coast

Now the southwest Washington

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Central Columbia River Gorge

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Cascades

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING for the following areas…Willapa Hills-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County

Finally, a look at the updated snowfall totals through Tuesday, we are thinking that the Olympics and the Cascades will see the highest snowfall with a couple of feet possible.  As far as the lowlands, areas where rain or freezing rain don’t mix in will see the highest snowfall totals and we think that the rain/snow line could get as far north as Everett.  Slide20

Many schools in the area are closed, and King Metro, Community Transit for example are on snow routes and reducing service.  So if you don’t have to be out today, it is advised to just stay home.  Conditions will again get dangerous again by this afternoon.

5:35 pm PST update

Good evening, well, here we go again.  A fast moving system will continue to bring snow to Western Washington for the next few hours.  By the time this system moves off to the east, another 1 to 4 inches of snow will be possible.  So with that, here is a complete list of watches, warnings, and advisories in effect for Western Washington…Slide4

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT… …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca- North Coast

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT… …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…Lower Chehalis Valley Area

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY… …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands- Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY… …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County- Everett and Vicinity-Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area- Bremerton and Vicinity

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY… …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties- Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT for the following areas…Central Coast

WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties

WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON for the following areas…Olympics

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…South Washington Cascades

WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…Central Columbia River Gorge

WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY for the following areas…South Washington Cascade Foothills

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST MONDAY for the following areas…Willapa Hills-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST MONDAY for the following areas…Western Columbia River Gorge

Now for the expected snowfall totals through Tuesday, we still think that a few areas could see up to a foot of snow, but what could throw a wrench into things, is the second system and where it tracks as it will determine where it will remain mainly snow and which areas could see that transition into freezing rain and rain.  Areas that see the mix of freezing rain will see lower amounts.  We will continue to monitor things over the next 24 hours and will be able to fine tune the forecast.

 

Live Blog: Western Washington Winter Storm February 8, 2019

4:05 pm PST update

So far over a foot of snow has fallen in Sequim over in Clallam County, with Port Angeles not far behind with 10 inches.  Snow continues to fall and there’s been some changes to the warnings and advisories.  The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the North and Central Coast.  Winter Storm Warning has been added for the Southwest Interior.  The rest of the advisories and warnings remain unchanged…Slide5nwshaz.us_nw (1)

The snow continues to rotate around the area of low pressure, and we can expect snowfall to continue right through the evening hours, with the time of the heaviest snow is expected between now and around 9 or 10 pm.  Snowfall rates up to an inch or two per hour will be possible in the heaviest bands.  We also expect winds to increase through the evening hours, with a High Wind Warning in effect for Western Whatcom and Western Skagit counties.  Slide3

If you plan on traveling this evening, it is highly not recommended.  Travel times are well above normal due to the snow and snow covered roads.  To check out the travel times, you can click on this link.   Many bus routes throughout the Puget Sound region are cancelled or are on snow routes.  Snohomish County is under a state of emergency and we expect these dangerous conditions to continue through the evening.

2:25 pm PST update

Snow is continuing to overspread the area this afternoon.  Currently it’s the Sequim area that has seen the most snow with the latest report showing 8 inches already fell.  You can see the rest of the reports below…Slide5

On the radar, snow continues to overspread the area.  Moderate snow is falling in the Everett area and traffic outside the headquarters on 132nd St SE is moving slow.  Area buses companies are cancelling routes, as travel becomes dangerous.  Slide3

We are still a few hours away from seeing the heaviest snows across the area and as roads become more and more snow covered, as noted above, driving will become dangerous and hazardous.  To sum things up, if you don’t have to be out this afternoon or evening, please just stay home.

11:44 am PST update

Good (almost) afternoon, we are beginning to see some of our first snowfall reports coming in.  The highest as of 11:30 am, 3.5 inches in Port Angeles, with several reports of 2 inch totals.  You can see the reports we have so far below…Slide5

As we go through the afternoon and evening hours, we will of course add in more reports.  A look at the radar is telling, heaviest snowfall currently along US 101 from Port Angeles to Sequim, with even some rain falling or mixing in with snow from Silverdale southward to Bremerton, Port Orchard, possibly to Tacoma and Olympia.  We still do and fully expect snow to fill in and overspread the area as we get into the afternoon hours and we also expect for road conditions to become hazardous.  School districts are beginning to dismiss students ahead of this winter storm and several major colleges are suspending classes within the next couple of hours.  Slide3

10:15 am PST update

We are beginning to see the snow pick up in activity, especially towards the Port Angeles and south and east towards Smokey Point, Marysville, and over towards Lake Stevens.  Portions of Everett will also likely get an increase in snowfall soon.  The overall trend for the next few hours we will see snowfall continue to increase in coverage and by the early afternoon hours, should begin to see it accumulate and that’s when things will become increasingly hazardous.  We will continue with updates throughout the day.Slide3

7:50 am PST update

Good morning, we start off this live blog with the watches/warnings and advisories.  All of Western Washington is under some type of Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.  High Wind Warning also in effect for Western Whatcom and Skagit counties.  nwshaz.us_nw

On the radar, only a few flurries or very light snow showers across portions of Western Washington, nothing here at my location, but as we go through the day, that will certainly change as more snow filters in the area.  Slide3

Finally to end this update, here’s a look at the snowfall potential for today, we are expecting anywhere between 3 and 8 inches across the Puget Sound region.  Lower amounts further north towards the Bellingham area, and west across the coastal sections and southwest portion.Slide28 Snohomish County is under a State of Emergency, several school systems will be closing schools early today.  All of the major public transportation companies are reducing service as the day goes on.  Keep a close eye on this page throughout the day as we will be updating on warnings, advisories, and more.  Strongly suggested if you can leave work early, do so and once you get home, it is advised to stay there, if you have to be out today, BE VERY CAREFUL!

 

Live Blog: Winter Storm January 19, 2019

We are happy to provide this live blog as this winter storm impact the state.  If you appreciate our hard work, please consider making a donation by clicking this link.  We thank you for your continued support!

10:37 pm EST update

The latest Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 37 graphic

SUMMARY…Moderate to localized heavy snow will continue in the deformation zone, with 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates likely.

DISCUSSION…Regional radar shows an elongated axis of moderate snow stretching from northeastern Ohio southwestward into western Kentucky. This snowband has developed within a deformation zone located along the northwest side of a surface low over eastern Kentucky. Areas within this zone are experiencing rain that transitions to a brief period of freezing rain and then eventually snow with the east-to-west progression toward deeper cold-air advection. This snowband is expected to continue tracking east-northeastward as the system continues to lift northeast. Some localized banding is also evident in regional radar and is expected to continue with the presence of mid-level frontogenetical forcing for ascent. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely, particularly within any localized snowbands that develop.

10:29 pm EST update

We now have our first two counties under Travel Warnings, Bartholomew and Warren.  With a travel warning, you need to refrain from all travel, comply with necessary emergency measures, cooperate with public officials, and obey and comply with lawful directions of properly identified officers.  Out of the 92 counties, only 15 or 16 counties are not under any travel advisories, but that could change, again blowing and drifting of snow will make travel very hazardous tonight and travel for anywhere is highly not recommended.slide4

8:55 pm EST update

Travel across much of the state is not recommended as several counties are now under Travel Watches, with many, many more under Travel Advisories.  If you don’t have to go out this evening, please just stay at home this evening.slide4

Now a look at the radar, snow has come to an end for the northwest portions of the state, moderate to heavy snow falling across the southeast portion of the state.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will remain possible through the evening and into the overnight hours as winds will continue to gust 25 to 40 mph and will create dangerous wind chills tonight.  So to emphasize, if you don’t have to be out this evening, just stay home.  jan 19 2019 1805

5:24 pm EST update

We have the latest on areas under Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.  We have three counties that are no longer under the warning, and 7 counties under a Winter Weather Advisory.  The other 82 counties are under a Winter Storm Warning.  slide6

There’s also many northern Indiana counties under Travel Watches, with many, many more counties under Travel Advisories.  Conditions will only become worse during the evening hours as colder air moves in and blowing snow becomes more of a factor.  slide4

4:32 pm EST update

A look at the radar, we are beginning to see the overall trend to more wintry precipitation and this will continue to occur from west to east and southeast.  The colder air is beginning to filter in and we are seeing wind gusts between 20 and 40 mph.  Also as the colder air moves in, the snow will transition from more of a wet snow to more of a fluffy snow and combine that with the winds, chances will increase from blowing and drifting of snow.  Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s, but will continue to gradually fall.  jan 19 2019 1332

4:30 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 31 graphic

SUMMARY…Rain, freezing rain, and sleet will continue to transition to snow from northwest to southeast with moderate to heavy snowfall expected across this area through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

DISCUSSION…In the last hour, winds have shifted to northerly up to 2 km on the KIND and KVWX VWP as the 850mb low has started to shift east of that longitude. This has started to switch rain to snow across portions of this area with a continued transition expected over the next several hours. The developing deformation band will likely have snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour. Therefore, significant snowfall accumulations are likely through the evening before the system shifts east and drier air moves into the area. In addition to the impacts from the rapidly accumulating snowfall, winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph will cause significant blowing and drifting and visibility restrictions. This will become particularly impactful during the evening hours as a colder airmass advects into the area and leads to a drier snow which will be more prone to blowing and drifting.

2:45 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction CenterMD 30 graphic

SUMMARY…Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall continues across portions of the southern Great Lakes. Snowfall rates are expected to lessen across northern Indiana over the next few hours, with increasing snowfall rates across northern Ohio through the afternoon and into the evening.

DISCUSSION…The moderate to heavy snowfall bands which have set up across northeast Indiana have persisted into the mid-afternoon. Water vapor and radar trends suggest snowfall rates will decrease across this area in the next few hours and taper off into the early evening. Snowfall rates continue to increase in northern Ohio north of the rain/snow line. Correlation coefficient radar data from the KCLE 88D and surface observations show the freezing rain/snow line has lifted further north over the past few hours and is currently located just south of Mansfield to near Canton. This rain/snow line could progress another half a county north or so before stalling as the 850 flow backs ahead of the approaching surface cyclone, now around 998mb just west of Nashville. North of this boundary, snowfall rates will continue to increase with current rates around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour increasing to 1.5 inches per hour or greater by later this afternoon and into the evening as the mean mixing ratio increases to above 3 g/kg and lift is maximized north of the approaching surface low.

1:30 pm EST update

Taking a look at the latest Travel Status, several northern and central counties are now under Travel Watches, with nearly all of the northern counties, a good portion of central, and east-central counties under Travel Advisories.  Even though Delaware County is not under any kind of travel advisory, I would still use extra caution going through that county due to the freezing rain that fell this morning.  We may still see a few more counties go under watches and would not be surprised as the snow accumulates and the winds increase, that one or two counties go under Travel Warnings.  slide4

12:30 pm EST update

A look at the radar is showing the area of freezing rain diminishing in coverage somewhat as temperatures are beginning to fall.  Snow should begin to fall shortly in the Muncie area if not already and as we continue into the afternoon hours, snow will continue to expand in coverage.  Areas of heavy snow will be possible and again I have made some small changes to the snowfall potential, now putting portions of the east-central counties back in the 6 to 8 inch snow range, with a much of the state seeing 3 to 6 inches of snow, with isolated higher amounts, the other exception will be west-central counties, where 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible.  We will have additional updates on the Travel Status and more after we take a bit of a break.  jan 19 2019 0929slide1

11:20 am EST update

Here’s the Mesoscale Discussion provided by the Storm Prediction Center…MD 28 graphic

SUMMARY…Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected.

DISCUSSION…A large precipitation shield has developed north of a deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley. North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion, Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester, Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour.

10:40 am EST update

Now let’s take a quick look at the Travel Status update, currently only Benton and Franklin counties are under Travel Watches, which basically means only “essential travel” such as to and from work is recommended.  Many of the northern and central counties are under a Travel Advisory.  Like everything else, we will keep an eye on the Travel Status throughout the day.  slide4

10:15 am EST update

For this update, we are focusing on the freezing rain that is falling along and just north of I-70.  As we mentioned in the previous update, reports of downed powerlines and power outages throughout Randolph County.  Taking a look at the radar, some of the heaviest freezing rain is falling where you see some of the darker red colors.  We have a zoomed in radar look below…jan 19 2019 0716

The potential highest ice accumulations through early this afternoon, will likely be over east-central counties, where up to a quarter inch of ice is not out of the question, with locally higher amounts.  To the west, ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch is also possible, add on the breezy conditions, this sets up for the potential for power outages and down branches and powerlines.  So even if the snow is not falling yet, the ice is far worse and will make driving very hazardous this morning, and any snow on top of the ice will only make things worse, so travel is NOT advised at this time for any areas along and just north of I-70, where freezing rain have been the predominate form of precipitation so far.  By this afternoon, any areas that have seen freezing rain is expected to change over to snow.  slide2

9:15 am EST update

slide6slide1

Good morning, here’s the latest that we have right now, every Indiana county except 5 are currently under Winter Storm Warnings, though the far northwest counties, the warning will expire at noon CST, while the north-central and northeast counties expire at 2 pm CST. Central and east-central counties will expire around 4 am EST Sunday morning. Southeast counties expire at 8 am and noon EST Sunday depending upon which southeast county you are in. Southwest counties expire at midnight CST, finally south-central counties expire at 7 am EST Sunday morning.

Now to the snow accumulations, the addition of Winter Storm Warnings further south, I had to up snowfall potential there to the 3 to 6 inch range. Based on snowfall reports, northwest counties could still see 5 to 8 inches, as well as east-central counties. West-central counties could only see 1 to 2 inches, while the rest of the northern and central counties could see 3 to 6 inches.

 

Randolph County EMA officials are reporting down powerlines due to freezing rain that is falling and continuing to fall as of this update, with obviously loss of power throughout the county.  Not many snowfall reports to pass on as of now, but the reports I’ve seen, so far only about an inch or two of snow has fallen so far across north-central counties.  Current look at the radar is showing rain falling mainly across areas south of I-70, with freezing rain falling across areas just north of I-70 including Muncie, Anderson, Elwood to name a few, snow falling further north.  A band of moderate snow falling in Frankfort, Kokomo, and over to Marion.  jan 19 2019 0635

We will continue to update this blog live throughout the day with radar updates, Travel Status updates, snowfall reports, and more.  Finally, if you appreciate our hard work, please feel free to make a small donation, you can by clicking here.

 

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