Live Blog: March 14, 2019, Severe Weather Likely Today

1:14 pm EDT

Due to a potential medical emergency, I have to stop coverage for now, but please, find a good way to get warnings through the afternoon!

12:58 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0958.png

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Dubois County in south central Indiana…

* Until 130 PM EDT.

* At 1255 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winslow, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Jasper, Huntingburg, Holland, Dubois, Hillham, Celestine, Portersville, Millersport, Dubois Crossroads, and Norton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:56 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0958.png

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

East central Martin County in southwestern Indiana… Lawrence County in south central Indiana…

* Until 130 PM EDT.

* At 1254 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shoals, or 15 miles southwest of Bedford, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Bedford, Mitchell, Oolitic, Heltonville, Williams, Avoca, Spring Mill State Park, Silverville, Huron, Tunnelton and Bartlettsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:48 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0951.png

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… East central Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Pike County in southwestern Indiana… North central Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 1147 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Chandler, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. Several circulations in this warning, one was in Henderson county, another was in northeast Warrick county.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

Boonville around 1150 AM CDT.

Lynnville and Folsomville around 1155 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Spurgeon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

12:45 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0946.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR MARTIN COUNTY…

At 1242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shoals, or 20 miles southwest of Bedford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include… Shoals, Loogootee, Crane, Burns City, Indian Springs and Lacy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:38 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0940.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY…

At 1237 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Jasper, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include… Jasper, Thales, Cuzco, Portersville, Ireland, Dubois Crossroads, Kellerville, Crystal and Haysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

12:31 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0933.png

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Northern Dubois County in south central Indiana…

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1230 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of Winslow, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include… Jasper, Dubois, Duff, Thales, Cuzco, Portersville, Millersport, Ireland, Dubois Crossroads and Kellerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:27 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0927

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Central Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Pike County in southwestern Indiana… Northern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 1119 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Darmstadt, or near Melody Hill, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

Lynnville around 1130 AM CDT.

Oakland City around 1235 PM EDT.

Winslow around 1240 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mackey, Elberfeld, Somerville and Spurgeon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

12:15 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0916.png

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Martin County in southwestern Indiana… Daviess County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1213 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Washington, or 15 miles northeast of Petersburg, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Shoals, Loogootee, Odon, Elnora, Montgomery, Crane, Cannelburg, Alfordsville, West Boggs Lake, Indian Springs, Burns City, Lacy and Glendale Fishery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:11 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0913.png

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southwestern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… East central Posey County in southwestern Indiana… Northwestern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky… Northeastern Union County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 1110 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Uniontown, or 8 miles north of Breckinridge Center, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near… Henderson around 1125 AM CDT. Evansville around 1130 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

12:07 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0907.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR EASTERN KNOX AND DAVIESS COUNTIES…

At 1203 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Washington, or 14 miles north of Petersburg, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include… Washington, Odon, Elnora, Monroe City, Wheatland, Plainville, Sandborn, Montgomery and Cannelburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:05 pm EDT

THE TORNADO WARNING FOR VANDERBURGH…EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED…

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. Additional storms are likely. Stay aware.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for southwestern Indiana…and northwestern Kentucky.

12:03 pm EDTMar 14 2019 0904.png

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Northern Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Southeastern Pike County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1130 AM CDT.

* At 1101 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chandler, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. Power lines were reported down in Evansviille by the public.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Lynnville, Elberfeld, Spurgeon and Mackey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

12:01 pm EDT

MD 207 graphic

Areas affected…central and northeast IL…northwest IN

Concerning…Severe potential…

Watch possible Valid 141554Z – 141730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over the next 1-2 hours and likely become surface-based across central IL. A tornado risk will probably accompany the stronger storms with the tornado risk perhaps moving into northeast IL early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across central IL with breaks in the clouds over northeast IL into northwest IN as of 1030am CDT. A mid-level vorticity maximum located over the mid MS Valley is expected to move northeast across central IL during the next several hours. Surface analysis shows temperatures warming into the lower 60s with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s over central IL. The 12Z Lincoln, IL raob showed a very cold 500mb temperature (-21.7 deg C) with an 8 degree C/km 700-500mb lapse rate, it appears 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Given the very strong to extreme shear profile coupled with the very steep lapse rate, it appears tornado potential is greater than previously anticipated and an upgrade in tornado probabilities will be reflected in the upcoming 1630Z convective outlook. If robust surface-based supercells in fact develop, a strong tornado is possible mainly east of the US51/I-39 corridor in east-central and into northeast portions of IL this afternoon.

11:55 am EDTMar 14 2019 0859.png

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR EASTERN KNOX AND DAVIESS COUNTIES…

At 1151 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Petersburg, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include… Washington, Bicknell, Odon, Elnora, Monroe City, Wheatland, Plainville, Sandborn, Montgomery, Edwardsport and Cannelburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

11:53 am EDTMar 14 2019 0855

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR VANDERBURGH…EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES…

At 1051 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

Locations impacted include… Evansville, Melody Hill, Darmstadt and Kasson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

11:51 am EDTMar 14 2019 0850.png

Short term concern within the next 30 minutes to an hour is the circled areas within southwest Indiana where severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes remain possible.  This area of concern will grow and expand northeastward as we get into the afternoon hours.

11:44 am EDTMar 14 2019 0843

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Eastern Knox County in southwestern Indiana… Daviess County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1215 PM EDT.

* At 1141 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Patoka, or near Princeton, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Washington, Bicknell, Odon, Elnora, Monroe City, Wheatland, Plainville, Sandborn, Montgomery, Edwardsport and Cannelburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

11:39 am EDTMar 14 2019 0841

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… East central Posey County in southwestern Indiana… Northwestern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1115 AM CDT.

* At 1038 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles north of Corydon, or 9 miles west of Henderson, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Emergency Management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near…

Evansville and Kasson around 1050 AM CDT.

Melody Hill and

Darmstadt around 1055 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

11:30 am EDT

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Northwestern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Northeastern Posey County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1100 AM CDT.

* At 1029 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poseyville, or 13 miles southwest of Fort Branch, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Princeton, Fort Branch, Oakland City, Haubstadt, Owensville, Poseyville, Patoka, Cynthiana, Francisco and Somerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 14 2019 0832

11:15 am EDTMar 14 2019 0815

On the radar as of 11:15 am, two areas of concern, the most immediate concern is storms across southwest Indiana due to the fact that they are currently severe thunderstorm warned.  These storms will continue to rapidly move northeast and likely intensify further as we head into the afternoon hours.  In addition, watching the activity across central Indiana, while mainly heavy rainfall is the primary concern, these could also intensify and with this type of environment, we are watching for new storm development that could become supercellular in nature and produce problems of their own.  It’s going to be a busy afternoon and we will try and keep everyone ahead of these storms.

11:04 am EDT

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… West central Warrick County in southwestern Indiana… South central Gibson County in southwestern Indiana… Northern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana… Northeastern Posey County in southwestern Indiana…

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 1001 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Blairsville, or near Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Evansville, Mount Vernon, Fort Branch, Haubstadt, Darmstadt, Cynthiana, Blairsville, Kasson and Elberfeld.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 14 2019 0806

11:00 am EDT

Just seeing a report within the last few minutes, that a tornado just missed the National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky.

10:56 am EDTMar 14 2019 0753

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of

Extreme southeastern Illinois

Central and southern Indiana

Western and central Kentucky

Parts of western Ohio

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1045 AM until 500 PM EDT. *

Primary threats include…

Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Broken band of supercells is spreading rapidly northeastward across western Kentucky, and the trend should continue into the afternoon across southern Indiana and potentially reach western Ohio this afternoon. The fast moving storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, along with damaging winds and isolated large hail.

REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

10:40 am EDTMar 14 2019 0740

If there is a tornado it will be located likely between Shawneetown and Uniontown, KY heading towards Uniontown.  So if you have family or friends in Uniontown, have them seek shelter immediately!  From there, this possible tornado will cross into Indiana into southern Posey County.  There should now be no travel on SR 62 between Mount Vernon and the Posey/Vanderburgh county line.  This storm is showing about 77 mph of gate to gate shear, so if a tornado is down, it is likely not a very strong one, but one that can and will do damage.  So those in southern Posey County need to be taking shelter immediately ahead of this possible tornado and those in Vanderburgh County need to be monitoring this very closely!

10:36 am EDT

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for… Southeastern Gallatin County in southern Illinois… Southern Posey County in southwestern Indiana… West central Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky… Central Union County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 1000 AM CDT.

* At 934 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Shawneetown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near… Uniontown around 945 AM CDT.

Mount Vernon around 955 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Old Shawneetown and Waverly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Mar 14 2019 0738

10:33 am EDT

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 141431Z – 141630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Supercell intensity via strengthening low-level mesocyclones will probably intensify further during the next few hours as heating and a slight increase in buoyancy contribute to a greater tornado risk spreading northeast in a destabilizing warm sector.

DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover across the lower OH Valley with a couple of supercells moving quickly northeast (230 deg at 52kt). Surface analysis shows temperatures over western KY ranging from near 70 degrees F with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Farther northeast in southwest IN and adjacent portions to the east along the OH River, temperatures are rising into the upper 50s to near 60 with dewpoints in the upper 50s. The PAH VAD shows 500 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. 13Z RAP forecast soundings indicate as the airmass gradually destabilizes during the late morning, a risk for low-level mesocyclones capable of a tornado threat will likely increase. Upwards of 500 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to develop. Currently thinking the greatest risk for tornadoes will accompany the quasi-discrete supercell activity as it moves from western KY downstream into southwest IN during the next several hours which will coincide with the diurnal heating cycle on the north-end of the near 60 degrees F surface dewpoints.MD 205 graphic

10:12 am EDT

Here is a look at the statewide radar, the hope is that all cloud cover and rainfall will help to work the atmosphere over enough, so that any severe threat this afternoon will be limited.  The heaviest rain right now is falling over the west-central counties and all the activity will move in a northeast direction today.  Temperatures across the state, very uniform in the mid to upper 50s.  As of now, the entire state, in particular the eastern portion of the state is under the gun for severe weather this afternoon.  We will continue to have the latest updates here and on the Facebook page, but this is the go to page for today!  Mar 14 2019 0711

10:05 am EDT

Two areas we are monitoring, the storm crossing into west-central Indiana and this storm that is moving across southern Illinois and western Kentucky. This storm is currently warned on for damaging winds.  This storm have also exhibited signs of rotation at times.  This storm is racing northeast at 70 mph and on current track and speed, could move into southwest Indiana counties within the hour.  So we are monitoring closely.Mar 14 2019 0701

9:44 am EDT

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FOUNTAIN…PARKE AND VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM EDT…

At 942 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Paris, moving northeast at 75 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include… Clinton, Covington, Rockville, Veedersburg, Newport, Attica, Fairview Park, Cayuga, Montezuma, Dana, Hillsboro, Kingman, Perrysville, Universal, Mecca, Bloomingdale, Marshall, Newtown, Mellott and Wallace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.Mar 14 2019 0645

9:01 am EDT

The latest from the Storm Prediction Center on the Convective Outlook has just be released and the only change noted was the marginal risk for extreme southwest Indiana has been upgraded to a slight risk.  So now the entire state of Indiana is either under a slight or enhanced risk of severe storms late this morning into the afternoon.  While the morning convection is still playing some doubts on the overall risk for this afternoon one thing is clear, most of the state should see some type of severe weather by this afternoon.  In addition, in the final paragraph of the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center states this…

“SHOULD A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING/GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP,
CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO RISK AREA GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT.
THIS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION IS ASSESSED.”

Basically what that means, if a greater area of instability develop, or if surface heating is higher than expected, there could be the potential likely somewhere within the enhanced risk area that strong tornadoes may be possible.  We will keep a very close eye on this possibility and have additional updates throughout the morning into the afternoon.Slide1

7:08 am EDT

Good morning, we are starting off the live blog this morning with the look at the Convective Outlook and highlighting the cities that are under the Enhanced and Slight risk areas…First the map…Slide1

The Enhanced Risk covers nearly all of eastern Indiana in the orange, with the slight risk covers northern and western counties in the yellow.  For extreme southwest Indiana, a marginal risk is possible.  While we won’t go into exact timing, the general timing will be from late this morning through the early evening is where you need to be on guard.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the threat of tornadoes.  Damaging winds will also be possible, as well as large hail.  Even outside of thunderstorms, winds today could gust up to 55 mph.Slide3

On radar this morning, we do have showers with embedded thunderstorms from roughly Anderson points southward, with some lighter showers across northern Indiana.  This area of showers and storms will not be severe, but brief heavy rainfall will be possible from these showers.  Temperatures are in the 50s.Mar 14 2019 0427

That is all for this initial update, the next Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center should be out within the next hour and a half and we will have it here, especially if there’s any major updates.  Just have a plan of action ready to go in the event warnings are issued, we will try and get on FB live if possible.  Be weather aware and keep refreshing this page frequently for updates.

Advertisements