Live Blog: Severe Weather Potential, March 9, 2019

8:02 pm EST

We will be ending this blog as the threat of severe weather is over as the Storm Prediction Center has removed the slight and marginal risks out of the state.  The atmosphere just wasn’t able to destabilize and that was one of the concerns in the overall severe weather potential that fortunately did not happen.  However, a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into west-central Indiana could produce small hail and gusty winds so we will continue to monitor them and have updates on the Facebook page.  Have a great evening!

6:32 pm EST

Severe storms if they were to occur will be between now and about 10 or 11 pm.  MUCAPEs at this point are only in the 500 J/kg range.  Shear, especially across southwest counties between 50 and 75 kts.  Helicity in the lowest 1 km are in excess of 200 m2/s2, all of this continues to show the potential for severe storms to occur.  Satellite is showing clear skies across portions of Illinois and extreme west-central and southwest Indiana.  There is also a chance that the clearing came a bit too late to destabilize the atmosphere, but we will continue to monitor the radar and as long as the threat for severe weather remains, we will continue with this live blog.  Right now, the area that could see the best risk of severe weather will be the southwest counties.

4:18 pm EST

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

Areas affected…southern Illinois and vicinity

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 092117Z – 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with damaging wind or perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION…A warm front continues to move northward across the St. Louis area and into southern Illinois, with substantial clearing allowing for additional heating as well. Surface analysis shows mid 50s F dewpoints surging northward, with 2hr pressure falls up to 6 mb. An axis of near-60 F dewpoints exists over extreme southern Illinois southward into Arkansas as of 21Z. A small cluster of thunderstorms is currently moving toward the St. Louis area with indications of strong wind gusts. This is very near the surface low/upper vort track, and is coincident with strong cooling aloft. A small window of opportunity might exist for at least isolated severe storms ahead of the surface low and near the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate instability is weak, but may briefly increase enough to support low-topped supercells. Wind shear profiles are very strong, and should a supercell form, a tornado threat would naturally exist.MD 174 graphic

3:44 pm EST

Good afternoon, things are trying to ramp up and in fact, the Storm Prediction Center has again expanded the marginal risk up to the Kokomo area. The main threat in the marginal risk will be damaging winds. The only other change is that the slight risk have been slimmed a bit to mainly southwest counties. Within the slight risk, all modes remain possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat and isolated tornadoes and large hail being the primary threats. We will continue to monitor the situation and have updates here as long as the threat remains.Slide1

12:47 pm EST

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EST…

At 1244 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Patoka, or 7 miles east of Mount Carmel, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include… Vincennes, Bicknell, Oaktown, Monroe City, Wheatland, Bruceville, Edwardsport, Decker, Vincennes University and Freelandville.Mar 9 2019 0946

11:44 am EST

The slight and marginal risk areas have been expanded a bit northward.  The slight risk areas have expand northward across nearly all of Knox County, while the marginal risk now covers all of Vigo County.  At this time, we do not expect any further northward expansion in the outlook areas, but there remains a possibility that an isolated strong or severe storm could sneak north of I-70 later today.  Reasoning from this morning discussion remains unchanged.  Primary threat remains damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes and large hail as the secondary threats.  We will continue to have updates on the live blog as long as the threat remains.

11:44 am EST

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EST…

At 1135 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Patoka, or 8 miles north of Princeton, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include… Vincennes, Bicknell, Oaktown, Monroe City, Wheatland, Bruceville, Plainville, Edwardsport, Decker, Vincennes University and Freelandville.Mar 9 2019 0843

10:31 am EST

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL WARRICK AND EAST CENTRAL VANDERBURGH COUNTIES…

At 929 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Chandler, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include… Evansville and Melody Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 9 2019 0732

10:28 am EST

Here’s a look at the Convective Outlook, the next update from the Storm Prediction Center will be in an hour.

Slide1

10:24 am EST

Our first warning of the day was recently issued for southwest Indiana, details are below…

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…

Southwestern Warrick County in southwestern Indiana…

Southern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana…

Northeastern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky…

* Until 945 AM CST.

* At 919 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include… Evansville, Newburgh and Melody Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.Mar 9 2019 0721

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