Live Blog: Severe Weather Potential February, 23, 2019

7:18 pm EST update

We are going to end the live blog again, however if any additional significant tornadoes occur, we will resume the blog.

7:03 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southwestern Henderson County in western Tennessee…

North central McNairy County in western Tennessee…

Southeastern Madison County in western Tennessee…

Chester County in western Tennessee…

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 601 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located over Chickasaw State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Henderson, Chickasaw State Park, Silerton, Jacks Creek, Mifflin, Masseyville, Finger, Enville, Medon, Pinson, Parkburg, Huron, Palestine, Hickory Corners, Deanburg, Roby, Five Points, Montezuma, Cabo and Middle Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

7:00 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Fayette County in west central Alabama…

* Until 700 PM CST.

* At 558 PM CST, a tornado producing storm was located near Belk, or 7 miles southeast of Vernon, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Winfield, Fayette, Glen Allen, Belk, Bluff, Bevill State College Fayette, Hubbertville and Bazemore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

6:42 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northeastern Hardeman County in western Tennessee…

South central Madison County in western Tennessee…

Southwestern Chester County in western Tennessee…

* Until 615 PM CST.

* At 541 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near Bolivar, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Bolivar, Chickasaw State Forest, Chickasaw State Park, Silerton, Cloverport, Toone, Medon, Pine Top, Parkburg, Uptonville, Deanburg, Teague and Shandy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

6:31 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southern Lamar County in west central Alabama…

* Until 615 PM CST.

* At 527 PM CST, a tornado producing storm was located over Steens, or near Columbus, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Vernon, Millport, Kennedy, Blooming Grove, Cody, Star, Hightogy and Melborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

6:26 pm EST update

We are resuming the blog as a dangerous tornado moving through Columbus, MS…

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY…

At 520 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Columbus, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD…Damaging tornado.

SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT…You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

The tornado will be near…

Steens around 530 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

5:48 pm EST update

We are going to end the live blog updates.  For updated warnings, be sure to check out your local media outlet and the National Weather Service.

5:25 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for… Kemper County in east central Mississippi…

Southeastern Neshoba County in east central Mississippi…

* Until 530 PM CST.

* At 424 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bethsaida, or 8 miles south of Philadelphia, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

House around 430 PM CST.

Herbert Springs around 435 PM CST.

Forestdale around 440 PM CST.

Damascus around 445 PM CST.

Liberty and Bluff Springs around 450 PM CST.

De Kalb around 505 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Tucker and Scooba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

5:22 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for… Southern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi… Northern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi…

* Until 500 PM CST.

* At 422 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near New Wren, or near Aberdeen, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Amory, Aberdeen, Smithville, New Wren, New Salem, Hatley, Sipsey Fork, Becker, Quincy, Cardsville, Turon, Splunge, Wren, Bigbee, Jacinto and Parham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

5:05 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northeastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi…

Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi…

Northwestern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi…

* Until 430 PM CST.

* At 404 PM CST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located 8 miles southwest of Jumpertown, or 10 miles northwest of Baldwyn, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Booneville, Jumpertown, Dumas, Rienzi, Graham, Jericho, Geeville, Locum, Blackland, Gaston and Frankstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:56 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Cullman County in north central Alabama…

South central Morgan County in north central Alabama…

* Until 430 PM CST.

* At 355 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Good Hope, or 7 miles west of Cullman, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Cullman, Good Hope, Falkville, Baldwin, Vinemont, Baileyton, West Point, Eva, Lacon and Logan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:33 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Northwestern Cullman County in north central Alabama…

* Until 400 PM CST.

* At 331 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Smith Lake, or near Arley, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. The public has reported a funnel cloud or wall cloud over Smith Lake with this storm.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Cullman, Good Hope, Baldwin, West Point, Phelan, Logan, Crane Hill, Jones Chapel and Smith Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:22 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Southeastern Winston County in northwestern Alabama…

* Until 345 PM CST.

* At 319 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Curry, or 7 miles north of Jasper, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…

Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Arley, Nesmith, Smith Lake, Falls City, Helicon, Mill Branch, Panther Branch, Maple Branch, Wilson Bend, Devils Branch, Seymour Branch, Duncan Bridge, Little Dismal Creek, Bear Branch, Coon Creek, Big Bear Branch, Hidden Cove Campground, Battle Branch, Butler Branch and Cutoff Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

4:09 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

North central Walker County in central Alabama…

* Until 330 PM CST.

* At 307 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Carbon Hill, moving northeast at 40 mph.Slide3

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include… Jasper, Curry, Smith Lake, Cedrum Area, Holly Grove, Lupton, Gamble and Walker County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

4:03 pm EST updateWW0006 WOU

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch

for portions of Northern and central Alabama

Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CST. *

Primary threats include…

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Multiple areas of potential severe storms should affect parts of Alabama and Tennessee through this evening. The greatest threat for tornadoes should exist across the western portion of the watch area.

3:37 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 127 graphic

Areas affected…central and north-central MS

Concerning…Tornado Watch 5

Valid 232035Z – 232130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

SUMMARY…A relative weakness in low-level shear has limited potential for storm-scale rotation up until now. Low-level shear and hodograph enlargement is forecast for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. A corresponding increase in severe risk is expected.

DISCUSSION…KDGX VAD data through the early afternoon has exhibited relatively modest low-level shear (0-1 km SRH less than 150 m2/s2). Coupled with some weakness in the mid-level lapse rate above 500mb, the two factors have combined to limit storm organization in the low levels and the severe risk through 200-230 pm CST. However, a gradual increase in 700mb flow is expected through 6 pm and low-level storm rotation potential is expected to increase coincident with the hodograph enlarging and not exhibiting the degree of veer-back-veer tendency shown in earlier raobs. As such, gradual storm intensification and increase in the severe risk with an accompanying threat for tornadoes is expected.

3:24 pm EST update

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…

Eastern Yazoo County in central Mississippi… Central Madison County in central Mississippi…

* Until 300 PM CST.

* At 222 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Flora, or 17 miles south of Yazoo City, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near…

Little Yazoo around 230 PM CST.

Myrleville around 235 PM CST.

Benton around 240 PM CST.

Way around 245 PM CST. Vaughan around 250 PM CST.

Cameron around 300 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Bentonia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.Slide3

3:13 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 126 graphic

Areas affected…west-central AL

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 231958Z – 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent

SUMMARY…Storms are intensifying in west-central AL and at least one has exhibited weak/transient rotation indicative of a marginal supercell. Will monitor convective trends in the short term regarding the need for a tornado watch before the risk of severe weather increases later this evening.

DISCUSSION…A couple of storms have developed during the past 1-2 hours near the AL/MS border to the east of Meridian, MS and west of Tuscaloosa, AL. The storms have developed in the warm sector and seemingly due to both diurnal heating and within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. The thunderstorm activity will likely coincide with the diurnal heating cycle and it is possible this activity weakens with the onset of diurnal cooling. However, if 1 or 2 storms can become bootstrapped and become unequivocally surface-based, the transition to supercell would occur and a risk for a tornado or two may accompany these storms. This possible scenario is highly uncertain but there is greater confidence the severe risk will increase towards early evening as the thunderstorms over MS move into western AL.

3:06 pm EST update

The marginal and slight risk areas have been dropped from Indiana, however, we are still looking at the moderate risk areas for portions of Mississippi and Tennessee, therefore we will continue on with the live blog post for any tornado warnings that may be issued, or severe thunderstorm warnings, in which damaging winds in excess of 70 mph will be possible.  Strong storms do remain possible for Indiana, with gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be possible until frontal passage.Slide1Slide2

1:40 pm EST update

On the radar, we are seeing a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings as thunderstorms are approaching the Memphis area.  These storms have been capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and penny size hail or less.  A line of strong storms extending from south-central Arkansas to north-central Louisiana and other broken lines of storms across eastern Louisiana.  These storms will continue to rapidly move northeast.  Slide3

Back to Illinois and Indiana, while rain and even some freezing rain is falling across northwest Indiana, some lighter showers are moving into southwest Indiana.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms across west-central and southern Illinois rapidly moving northeast as well.  Some of the storms could move into Indiana later this afternoon.  We will continue to have updates throughout the afternoon.Slide5

1:30 pm EST update

A Tornado Watch has been issued Eastern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and Western Tennessee.  Details below…WW0005 WOU

Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Mississippi Western Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CST. *

Primary threats include… Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely

Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Scattered severe storms are expected to develop mainly during the mid to late afternoon and early evening across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. The greatest tornado risk should exist across northern and central Mississippi into far southwest Tennessee between about 3 to 7 PM.

12:00 pm EST update

The following is a Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…MD 124 graphic

Areas affected…central and northern LA…southeast AR…central and northern MS Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231652Z – 231845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…A tornado watch will likely be needed between 12-1pm for LA into portions of AR and MS. One or two tornado watches will likely be required by early afternoon over the lower MS Valley region.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows a weak squall line developing over northwest LA into southwestern AR. The squall line is co-located with the Pacific front/dryline over the Sabine Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows a broken cumulus field from northeast LA through MS where surface heating is contributing to temperatures rising into the lower to middle 70s degrees F. The 9am Univ. Louisiana Monroe special Vortex2SE sounding showed a residual capping inversion near 700mb. The capping inversion has so far impeded sustained, free warm sector convective development to the east of the squall line. The 14.1 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio indicative of a very moist airmass beneath 8.7 degree C/km 700-500mb lapse rates, are suggestive of moderate buoyancy developing this afternoon as temperatures gradually warm through the middle 70s. Some slight cooling of mid-level temperatures —reducing the effects of a warm layer noticed above 500mb in the Monroe, LA sounding— may occur during the next few hours and further contribute to destabilization. Strengthening mid-to high-level flow fields this afternoon will promote storm organization with a favored tendency for supercells with updrafts not located within a cold pool-forced ascent regime (i.e., squall line). As such, strong low-level shear will potentially favor strong low-level mesocyclone rotation with the more robust/discrete updrafts. A couple of tornadoes, in addition to damaging winds, are the primary hazards.

11:45 am EST update

The 11:30 am EST update to the Convective Outlook has been released and there have been no changes to the outlook.  Here is a quick look at the map.Slide1

In addition, here’s a closer look at the Convective Outlook for Indiana, and the bullseye for the severe potential, Mississippi…Slide2Slide2

So the cities of Oxford, Tupelo, Greenville, Greenwood, and Starkville in Mississippi really need to be weather aware between the hours of 2 pm and 8 pm CST for the highest risk of severe storms, as all modes are in play from widespread damaging winds, large hail, and the threat for long-lived, significant tornadoes.  As our focus today will continue to be on the severe weather potential for Indiana, we will also post any warnings outside of the state for storms that could be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 70 mph or higher, or “large and extremely dangerous tornadoes”.  We want to keep as many as possible ahead of the storms and safe.  Finally, a look at the latest radar, while things remain largely quiet across Indiana, you can see what could be the beginnings of the severe weather outbreak, as showers and thunderstorms dot central and northeast Arkansas and a line of storms that extend from southwest Arkansas to the Shreveport, LA area.  We expect this line to continue to intensify as we head into the afternoon hours.  We are also watching storms in Missouri that could impact Indiana later in the day as well.  Additional updates throughout the day.Slide3Slide3

8:25 am EST update

We are beginning this live blog post this morning with the overall look at the severe weather potential for the nation today.  There is a moderate risk of severe storms today for portions of western Tennessee, extreme northwest Alabama, and northern Mississippi.  An enhanced risk of severe storms for western and portions of middle Tennessee, northwest Alabama, central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, and extreme southwest Kentucky.  A slight risk of severe storms for portions of middle Tennessee, much of northern and portions of central Alabama, portions of southern Mississippi, northern Louisiana, central and eastern Arkansas, portions of southeast Missouri, portions of southern Illinois, extreme southwest and south-central Indiana, and western and portion of central Kentucky.Slide1

While we will of course be monitoring Indiana throughout the day, we also will keep a very close eye on those in the enhanced and moderate risk area as there not only the potential for widespread damaging winds, and large hail, but the potential for long-tracked, significant tornadoes.  While we will of course monitor Indiana and post on all warnings, we will also post warnings for any “large and extremely dangerous” tornado warned storms, or for any severe thunderstorm warnings that winds in excess of 70 mph will be possible.  So be sure to stay tuned to the live blog post throughout the day.

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