Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon
Good morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed east-central and southeast Indiana under a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon. So what I wanted to do is produce a quick blog on what we could see today and overall, the risk is not that great. While we will have plenty of instability, shear is really lacking and will only be 20 kts or less and you need at least 30 kts or more of shear for ideal severe storm development. A cold front will provide the focus for storm development this afternoon and motion with the storms will generally be southeast today. The graphic below shows the areas under the marginal risk (there will be an update from the Storm Prediction Center around 9 am)
So taking a look at what FutureCast shows, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop sometime after noon, and this could very depending on when the cap erodes. We expect a broken line of storms to move southeast through the afternoon hours, it will not be widespread showers and thunderstorms, in fact some areas may not see any rainfall today, but areas that do see storms, especially in the east-central and southeast counties, could see heavy rainfall, and again that potential for isolated severe storms. We expect by 4 pm the line to be along a Lafayette-Kokomo-Marion line, moving along a Crawfordsville-Anderson-Muncie line by 6 pm, and a Terre Haute-Indy-Richmond line by 7 pm. After 8 pm, as daytime heating is decreasing, the storms should begin to weaken and by 10 pm, most of the storms should have dissipated, with only isolated storms possible for southern counties. This timeframe is not etched in stone and there could be variations of this timeline, so error plus or minus an hour.
Finally, the Severe Threat Index, we are not expecting widespread severe weather, most of the area under the marginal risk will likely not see any severe storms, but for those who are under the marginal risk, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, we will have updates on the Facebook page throughout the day. If any storms do become severe, damaging winds will be the primary threat, some of the most intense storms could produce hail, but that potential is very low. Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm, but widespread flooding is also not likely, could see some ponding on roadways and minor flash flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas. Overall, again, just keep an eye on the radar throughout the day, this will not be a widespread threat, most of the day should remain dry, and in fact, some areas may not even see any rainfall today. Stay weather aware and have a great Tuesday!