11 am update on Hurricane Nate

Nate continues to strengthen but first here’s the latest on the watches and warnings…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be near completion!

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Nate currently have winds of 90 mph, which is a category 1 hurricane.  Nate continues to move rapidly to the north-northwest near 26 mph and this motion is expected to continue, with a turn to the north later today.  Nate is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Mississippi or Alabama gulf coast this evening or late tonight.  Nate could graze the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Nate is currently 180 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 265 miles south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate is expected to continue to strengthen and will do so right up to landfall.  Nate will likely be a category 2 hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph, and there is an outside chance that Nate could reach major hurricane status.

Official forecast track for Nate through 24 hours.

A look at the radar from New Orleans shows a pretty strong rain band still offshore but will move onshore within the next hour or two and this rainband could produce wind gusts of over tropical storm force.  The eye is not quite visible yet on radar, but should be within the next couple of hours.

Now to the impacts with Nate for the New Orleans metro area and the northeast Louisiana coast.  First winds, associated with Nate, sustained winds in the New Orleans metro area will be on the order of 45 to 60 mph, with gusts to hurricane force, while areas near and the to east of Slidell and areas near the mouth of the Mississippi and Bayou country will likely see winds 55 to 70 mph, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas of up to 10 inches will be possible and due to the fast motion of Nate, flooding from rainfall will be minimum.  Storm surge flooding for the Louisiana coast will be at the following levels…Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to
6 ft.  An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

Finally, the impacts for the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, winds and gusts of hurricane force will be expected, especially near and to the east of where Nate makes landfall, which right now could be anywhere from Biloxi to as far east as Mobile.  Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas up to 10 inches will be possible.  Storm surge flooding will be as follows…Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft and Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft.  A few tornadoes will be possible especially along and east of where Nate makes landfall.

Impacts for Nate will spread beyond where it makes landfall.  As Nate moves further inland, it will interact with a frontal system and spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Appalachians, and New England.  Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 2 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be possible.  Wind gusts of up to tropical storm force will be possible for portions of the southeast, the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.  Preparations should be very near completion for the central Gulf coast and you should be at a safe location to ride out this hurricane.  Additional updates here and on the Facebook page.

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