Tropical Storm Nate Friday Morning Update

Good morning, even though the intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Nate will be out by the time I hit publish, will quickly put together this post on the 5 am update on Nate, but first, here is a list of watches and warnings currently in effect…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

At 5 am, Nate had winds of 45 mph, with gusts to 60 mph and moving quickly to the north-northwest at 14 mph.  Nate is approximately 950 miles south-southeast of New Orleans.

Position and official forecast track for Nate.

Nate is not a big tropical storm with tropical storm force winds extending 90 miles from the center.  The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center have Nate skimming the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 12 to 24 hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to gradually strengthen to a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, though some models do suggest that Nate may not reach hurricane strength and even it does reach hurricane strength, we are not expecting Nate to be stronger than an 85 mph hurricane.  The main impacts from Nate due to the likely fast movement of the storm will be storm surge flooding and the potential for power outage and damage.  Those along the northern Gulf coast, now is the time to prepare for a category 1 hurricane and preparations should be complete by the end of today.  Listen to local officials for any evacuation orders.  Stock up on batteries, have plenty of water and non-perishable food items, gas in the car, and cash on hand as ATMs will not work if the power is out.   Also want to point this out, this storm will no way be anything like Harvey, Irma, or Maria thankfully, but Nate will still provide problems of its own.  Once Nate moves across the northern Gulf coast, it will quickly weaken and move northeast across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and will be very near New York City by very early Tuesday morning, spreading heavy rainfall along its path.  Forecast guidance are tightly clustered on the track of Nate.  We will have another update on Nate this afternoon, but those along the northern Gulf coast need to prepare now for this storm.

Impacts along the northern Gulf coast for Nate
Track model guidance for Nate