Monthly Archives: September 2017

5 pm update on Irma

Good evening, if you’ve been following on the Facebook page today, you would think it was quite the busy day so far and it has been.  We’ve been going since 4:45 am and stopped only to quickly eat lunch.  Anyways, here is a list of watches and warnings associated with Irma…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

At 5pm, the eye of Irma was located inland, 5 miles north of Naples.  Irma is moving north at 14 mph and this course is expected to continue, with a motion to the north-northwest at times.  On this track, Irma will continue to move along the Florida west coast and may touch the Gulf of Mexico at times during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are down to 110 mph, which now makes Irma a strong category 2.  Continued weakening is forecast, but Irma should remain a hurricane for at least the next 18 to 24 hours.

The follow is the storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 5 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

Rainfall totals especially areas impacted by the northeast quadrant, could see as much as 10 to 20 inches of rain, which will lead to dangerous flash flooding.

Now to the forecast track, now that Irma is inland, the storm will continue to move northward across the Florida peninsula and will continue to weaken.  By Monday afternoon, Irma will be a tropical storm near the Georgia/Florida line, then will move northwest to the east-central Alabama by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.  Then finally becoming a post-tropical system as it moves towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  We will continue to monitor Irma even as it moves through the southeast due to its potential impacts on Indiana’s weather.  Have a great evening!  Slide57

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5 am update on Irma

The official 5 am update, first here’s a look at the watches/warnings…
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Matanzas, and La Habana
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bimini and Grand Bahama
 
At 5 am, Irma is located 40 miles SSE of Key West. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph, which is a category 4 hurricane. We are not expecting anymore strengthening due to increasing shear and soon land interaction. A gradual weakening is expected, but will still be a major hurricane for the next 24 hours. Irma is moving northwest at 8 mph. The core of Irma will move across the Keys during the next few hours. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE IF YOU ARE STILL IN THE KEYS!! The following is expected storm surge…
Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft
Rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches, especially where Irma makes landfall, general rainfall totals of 5 to 15 inches will be possible, with isolated areas of 25 inches possible.  Flash flooding will be possible.
Tornadoes will also be possible today, with an enhanced risk of severe storms for portions of the eastern Florida peninsula.
Now for the forecast track, once the core of Irma moves through the Keys, Irma is expected to move parallel to the west coast of Florida, this will make the exact landfall area difficult to pinpoint.  Once Irma do make landfall, it will continue to move north and northwest into east-central Alabama by early Tuesday morning as a tropical storm, then continue to weaken to a post-tropical system into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  If you are in Florida today, remain indoors today, for the west coast of Florida, conditions will only worsen today!  Be safe and we will have another blog update between 11:30 and noon.