Good morning, a current look at the radar shows the shower and thunderstorm complex that I’ve been watching since 2:30 am now impacting northeast Indiana with the southwest area weakening. Temperatures where it hasn’t rained yet are in the 70s, with cooler temps where it has rained so far.
There is a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening for areas Indy northward, with a marginal risk as far south as near Bloomington.
A look at the SBCAPEs for this afternoon and evening from 11 am this morning to 2 am Tuesday morning, showing that strong to near extreme instability will be in place for northern Illinois and Indiana, this will be the focus of new thunderstorm development later in the afternoon as Futurecast will show here just a second. CAPEs by 5 pm will range from around 1000 J/kg in northwest Indiana to near 4000 J/kg across central Indiana. The following set of graphics courtesy of Pivotal Weather…
Another thing that I look at in times of severe storms, is the Supercell Composite, which shows chances of supercell using a combination of other models, the higher the number, the greater the chance of supercell formation. Supercell thunderstorms can produce not only damaging winds and large hail, but they can also produce tornadoes. This model show the highest supercell composite is situated over central Indiana during the afternoon hours, again courtesy of Pivotal Weather…
Which now leads us to the Futurecast and how the radar could look like during the afternoon into the early morning hours Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken and move to the southeast as the morning turns into the afternoon hours. Between 3 and 4 pm, we are expecting new thunderstorm development in northwest Indiana and eastern Illinois and move to the southeast, these storms will likely become severe and possibly supercellular in nature and all modes of severe weather will be possible. This will eventually congeal into a line segment and continue to move southeast through the evening hours and could break into two separate lines, one moving across eastern Indiana and the other line moving across eastern Illinois. By the time this model run ends by 2 am Tuesday, the cluster of storms will could be affecting east-central Indiana and severe potential is still possible during this time.
Another item to be concerned about is the heavy rainfall, with ample moisture available, heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorm. Rainfall totals between now and 2 am Tuesday morning, rainfall totals could range anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to up to 5 inches of rain, depending on where the heaviest rain falls, so where you see the highest rainfall, doesn’t necessarily mean that will where the highest totals will be.
To end this blog, again we are looking at a severe weather potential for areas north of Indy this afternoon and evening hours. All modes of severe weather is possible as the Severe Storm Index shows. We will continue to have updates through the rest of today on the Equinox Weather Facebook page, be weather aware and have a way of receiving any watch and warning information.