Severe Potential for This Evening and Tonight

Good afternoon, a look at the Convective Outlook that was issued before 1 pm shows that slight risk have been expanded to portions of west-central Indiana, with the marginal risk for much of northern and central Indiana and a small portion of southwest Ohio, mainly along and north of a Dayton to Columbus line.  While we are not expecting a widespread outbreak of severe storms, any storms that do become severe, damaging winds will be the primary threat, along with large hail being the secondary threat.

Radar at 1:55 pm is showing showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop in northeast Illinois, with one storm in northwest Indiana that have been showing signs of weakening.  But with daytime heating now in effect, we will expect additional showers and storms to develop as the Futurecast radar will show below…

Futurecast takes us from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am Friday morning.  Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the afternoon through the early evening hours.  Not all areas will see these storms and can’t count out an isolated strong to severe storm given the amount of instability.  The higher chance of the strong to severe storms will move into Indiana during the late evening hours and continue eastward across the state during the overnight hours.  Damaging winds will be possible with these storms.  At this time, I think northern sections of Indiana will have the highest probabilities of seeing these storms, but can not count out an isolated storm or two for central Indiana.  This point I think southern Indiana and much of southwest Ohio remains dry.  Storms will exit out of the state between 4 and 5 am.

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Before ending this blog, the Day 2 Convective Outlook was recently posted and the slight risk as expected have been shifted south to include more of northeast and east-central Indiana, as far south as the northeast side of Indianapolis over to Connersville.  At this point, thinking that instability will be a bit higher than what we will see today as a cold front will approach from the west.  For updates on any watches, warnings, and advisories that may be issued, be sure to like the Equinox Weather Facebook page.

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